tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post6559496047727671521..comments2024-03-25T05:30:23.847+11:00Comments on HotWhopper: When deniers have nothing, they recycle dead arguments....Souhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-32813865204917462142014-05-12T03:06:21.311+10:002014-05-12T03:06:21.311+10:00Two steps:
1) Use .9 vs .2, or, increase persisten...Two steps:<br />1) Use .9 vs .2, or, increase persistence to create a distribution of graphs with wilder swings, but in both directions, as people like Noel Cressie told Wegman (and were ignored).<br /><br />2) Invent a metric Hockey Stick Index that sorts by resemblance to positive hockey stick, then throw away 99%, leaving the 1% that look most like MBH99.<br />Fraud.<br />This is like doing a random walk via coin flips with an honest coin, then picking the 1% that ended furthest positive and claiming the coin is biased.John Masheynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-335173511347835702014-05-11T09:14:29.100+10:002014-05-11T09:14:29.100+10:00Correction, if I may, Sou: he's only regarded ...Correction, if I may, Sou: he's only regarded with contempt by those in touch with reality. His sycophants worship the very ground he walks on. According to them, he can do no wrong, and this is the type of individual you encounter on many a climate change fora.<br /><br />Just to give an example of how surreal the many run-ins I've had with these people over the years is... in one of Deep Climate's analyses of how wrong McIntyre was (Replication and Due Diligence - Wegman Style, last diagram), Deep shows a comparison of first principal components produced by one of McIntyre's way over-cooked ARFIMA red noise simulations (akin to AR1(.9)) vs. one using a more realistic co-efficient (AR1(.2)). One of McIntyre's attack dogs said about the plot with the .2 co-efficient: "Ah, but look. There's a small uptick there. That's an artifact of Mann's PCA method. See, it's flawed!" Completely overlooking the fact that what McIntyre had done was infinitely worse. You can't win with these people. Once you even attempt to engage with them, it's down the rabbit hole you go (or possibly, the Rabett hole :-)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-8167788343260374302014-05-11T06:43:15.508+10:002014-05-11T06:43:15.508+10:00The Serengeti strategy tends to fail when the lion...The Serengeti strategy tends to fail when the lions are old, slow, dumb and toothless and the antelope/zebra/buffalo fight back. Even more when the lions are actually jackals.Magmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-31763679482313509652014-05-11T00:10:04.550+10:002014-05-11T00:10:04.550+10:00The original document was an information sheet the...The original document was an information sheet the debated graph was a simple "GRAPHIC" not meant for scientific study.<br /><br />from the time:<br />http://climateandstuff.blogspot.co.uk/2011/02/wmo-plot-debate.html<br /><br /> They didn't even HIDE the decline:<br />referenced on the 2nd page of the document:<br />https://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcdmp/documents/913_en.pdf<br /><br />Front cover: Northern Hemisphere temperatures were reconstructed for the past 1000 years (up to 1999) using palaeoclimatic records (tree rings, corals, ice cores, lake sediments, etc.), along with historical and long instrumental records. The data are shown as 50-year smoothed differences from the 1961–1990 normal.<br /><br />Uncertainties are greater in the early part of the millennium (see page 4 for further information). For more details, readers are referred to the PAGES newsletter (Vol. 7, No. 1: March 1999, also available at http://www.pages.unibe.ch) and the National Geophysical Data Center (http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov).<br /><br /> (Sources of data: P.D. Jones, K.R. Briffa and T.J. Osborn, University of East Anglia, UK; M.E. Mann, University of Virginia, USA; R.S. Bradley, University of Massachusetts, USA; M.K. Hughes, University of Arizona, USA; and the Hadley Centre, The Met. Office)<br /><br />They refer the reader to this document where on page 8 one finds the hiding of the decline by publishing it.<br /><br />http://www.pages-igbp.org/products/newsletters/nl99_1_prt.pdf<br /><br />In the immediate future, work will continue on important statistical issues related to the processing and interpretation of all of the various tree-ring collections. Potential anthropogenic influences on recent tree growth will become an increasingly important focus of the work. Increased tree productivity during the 19th and early 20th centuries and post-1950 declines in tree density trends have recently been identified in our data. The extent, detail and implications of these phenomena have yet to be further explored. Chronology confidence and the expression of climate forcing are most strongly expressed on short (annual to century) timescales. New data processing techniques are exploring...<br />thefordprefecthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07210786222021457913noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-16347611516329198882014-05-10T23:16:48.424+10:002014-05-10T23:16:48.424+10:00The latest, multi-institutional collaboration and ...The latest, multi-institutional collaboration and its state-of-the-art results simply adds yet more support to MBH99. See <a href="http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v6/n5/abs/ngeo1797.html" rel="nofollow">PAGES 2k Consortium (2013)</a> <b>Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia</b><br /><br /><i>Past global climate changes had strong regional expression. To elucidate their spatio-temporal pattern, we reconstructed past temperatures for seven continental-scale regions during the past one to two millennia. The most coherent feature in nearly all of the regional temperature reconstructions is a long-term cooling trend, which ended late in the nineteenth century. At multi-decadal to centennial scales, temperature variability shows distinctly different regional patterns, with more similarity within each hemisphere than between them. There were no globally synchronous multi-decadal warm or cold intervals that define a worldwide Medieval Warm Period or Little Ice Age, but all reconstructions show generally cold conditions between ad 1580 and 1880, punctuated in some regions by warm decades during the eighteenth century. The transition to these colder conditions occurred earlier in the Arctic, Europe and Asia than in North America or the Southern Hemisphere regions. Recent warming reversed the long-term cooling; during the period ad 1971–2000, the area-weighted average reconstructed temperature was higher than any other time in nearly 1,400 years.</i><br /><br />Let me pick out a few sentences for emphasis:<br /><br /><i>The most coherent feature in nearly all of the regional temperature reconstructions is a long-term cooling trend, which ended late in the nineteenth century.</i><br /><br />And:<br /><br /><i>There were no globally synchronous multi-decadal warm or cold intervals that define a worldwide Medieval Warm Period or Little Ice Age</i><br /><br />And:<br /><br /><i>Recent warming reversed the long-term cooling; during the period ad 1971–2000, the area-weighted average reconstructed temperature was higher than any other time in nearly 1,400 years.</i><br /><br />The contrarians are simply lying, as Michael Mann <a href="http://www.livescience.com/39957-climate-change-deniers-must-stop-distorting-the-evidence.html" rel="nofollow">has pointed out.</a><br /><br />Here's <a href="http://www.livescience.com/39957-climate-change-deniers-must-stop-distorting-the-evidence.html" rel="nofollow">a figure from that article</a> demonstrating the close agreement between the PAGES-2K reconstruction and MBH99.<br /><br />This is the fruit of many years of work since MBH99.<br /><br />The scientific evidence is what it is. The contrarians are simply lying and it is <i>astonishing</i> that this sustained and vile display of calculating mendacity is tolerated anywhere at all, let alone heard at the highest levels of government in the US and indeed elsewhere. BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-32765372466880597512014-05-10T22:26:45.814+10:002014-05-10T22:26:45.814+10:00Thank you, Marco, for that reminder. It's as g...Thank you, Marco, for that reminder. It's as good a demonstration as any of what a low-life Steve McIntyre is and why he is regarded with so much contempt by everyone who might have heard of him.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-46707596248040305702014-05-10T22:08:44.587+10:002014-05-10T22:08:44.587+10:00I see they are still promoting McIntyre's orig...I see they are still promoting McIntyre's original story that Mann supposedly "[amputated] another’s result so as to eliminate conflicting data and limit any serious attempt to expose the real uncertainties of these data"<br /><br />Deepclimate showed how this required the deliberate misreading of the e-mails, including quoting out of context:<br />http://deepclimate.org/2009/12/11/mcintyre-provides-fodder-for-skeptics/<br />DC later followed up with this one:<br />http://deepclimate.org/2010/05/14/how-to-be-a-climate-science-auditor-part-2-the-forgotten-climategate-emails/<br />including the damning e-mail in which Mann gets sent the data, truncated already at 1960, showing McIntyre's story is a piece of made-up nonsense. No surprise that Christy repeats that stuff.Marconoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-27596662670788306452014-05-10T21:06:47.228+10:002014-05-10T21:06:47.228+10:00Christy referred to a "small cohort" of ...Christy referred to a "small cohort" of scientists, which could refer to everybody involved. "Small" is, after all, relative. Christy also says that this is "in his view"; in that same view evolution is a crock and a supernatural being is going to save us from ourselves anyway. Or at least it'll save a small cohort of the elect.Cugelnoreply@blogger.com