tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post6288039747841465600..comments2024-02-12T15:25:44.028+11:00Comments on HotWhopper: The Urban Cool Island Effect stumps deniers at WUWTSouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comBlogger22125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-88943727985518370482015-09-22T17:43:08.339+10:002015-09-22T17:43:08.339+10:00Given how broken the satellite products are lookin...Given how broken the satellite products are looking these days, anyone seeking to reduce complexity would do so by using surface thermometry and gridded temperature reconstructions. <br /><br />Anyone still trying to argue that warming is over-estimated is in denial. BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-75692811351246838612015-09-22T11:58:56.324+10:002015-09-22T11:58:56.324+10:00More complicated:
Any risk of circularity in calcu...More complicated:<br />Any risk of circularity in calculation? <br />1. Say, over time: a stable satellite data readout, then allow for increased CO2 in atmosphere in calculations.<br />2. Hey presto, we therefore must have had a surface temperature rise?<br /><br /><i>The MODIS Tskin product is not without uncertainty; retrieving Tskin requires a calculation of radiative transfer to account for atmospheric emission and molecular absorption, which is time and resource intensive (Jin and Dickinson 2010).</i><br />http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/5/4/041002/meta;jsessionid=6070406B53E90450E93A50E119FE883E.c1<br /><br />All cynicism on my part aside, this is impressive and detailed work.markehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06387629308058823374noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-69024182932036570932015-09-22T11:36:02.399+10:002015-09-22T11:36:02.399+10:00The canopy UHI is most intense at night so minimum...<i>The canopy UHI is most intense at night so minimum temperatures were analyzed rather than maximums or averages </i>(Oke, 1982, 1987)."<br /><br /><i>Furthermore, the skin-level UHI is stronger during the day and summer (July) than during nighttime and winter. </i><br />http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00509.1<br /><br />Certainly looks complicated....markehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06387629308058823374noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-34900734036968186452015-09-22T10:20:59.637+10:002015-09-22T10:20:59.637+10:00I missed that, thanks.I missed that, thanks.Magmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-31641572758198151532015-09-22T09:43:14.772+10:002015-09-22T09:43:14.772+10:00@Magma - The 2012 Jin paper is one of Debbage &...@Magma - The 2012 Jin paper is one of Debbage & Sheppard's references, I wouldn't take MostlyHarmless' post as a 'serious' post, or he's completely confused about 'methodology'.Luther Blissetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14341825491864338554noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-88936709768483206232015-09-22T04:15:29.760+10:002015-09-22T04:15:29.760+10:00@ MostlyHarmless: At 4 km the gridding size seems ...@ MostlyHarmless: At 4 km the gridding size seems fine enough that it should preserve spatial variations on the appropriate scales. The authors note their use of the monthly minimum temperatures and offer references in support, but do not go into detail (I didn't check the references). However even the J. Climate reference you cite hardly justifies a conclusion that their methodology is badly flawed.<br /><br />Debbage & Sheppard:<br />"The gridded PRISM data has a resolution of approximately 4 km, which allows numerous grid points to exist within the urban areas of each MSA. Specifically, the PRISM products for annual and monthly average minimum temperature were used. The canopy UHI is most intense at night so minimum temperatures were analyzed rather than maximums or averages (Oke, 1982, 1987)."<br /><br />Jin:<br />"In conclusion, both screen-level [2 m ground] and skin-level [satellite IR] UHIs are important for a complete understanding of urban heat distribution, local and regional circulation, and water and heat cycles."Magmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-13945915452824008132015-09-22T00:25:57.622+10:002015-09-22T00:25:57.622+10:00Using minimum and gridded temperatures will minimi...Using minimum and gridded temperatures will minimise the UHI calculated. Their methodology is seriously flawed to the point of near irrelevance.<br /><br />http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00509.1<br />MostlyHarmlesshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18058940884892720332noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-9151230568729864942015-09-21T15:22:39.854+10:002015-09-21T15:22:39.854+10:00I don't understand your comment, marke. It doe...I don't understand your comment, marke. It doesn't make sense in relation to this study. The researchers used the output from PRISM, they aren't the same people who manage PRISM. <br /><br />Plus they used data from other sources to, for example, help determine urban-rural boundaries. <br /><br />The paper describes the methodology and data sources in considerable detail. Read it and then ask questions. Don't assume, in your usual D-K/denier-FUD style, that "scientists don't know nuffin'". Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-88130338715481848422015-09-21T14:38:37.457+10:002015-09-21T14:38:37.457+10:00Hi Magma, Sou,
Yes, I did highlight the fact they...Hi Magma, Sou,<br /><br />Yes, I did highlight the fact they use the 'gridded minimum temperature datasets'.<br /><br />But, as you very well know, incorporating data into a model is not the same thing as then actually verifying the modeled output with known effects (in this case, UHI where it <b>can</b> be measured). markehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06387629308058823374noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-4997730558295774112015-09-21T13:46:53.792+10:002015-09-21T13:46:53.792+10:00marke: I do hope that somewhere in the study they ...<i>marke: I do hope that somewhere in the study they validated their modelling with some actual temperature data.</i><br /><br />PRISM incorporates daily readings from 10,000 temperature stations in the contiguous US, you lazy windbag. Couldn't be bothered to check?Magmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-49539369857556916892015-09-21T13:37:43.371+10:002015-09-21T13:37:43.371+10:00The PRISM model is populated with real data from w...The PRISM model is populated with real data from weather stations, Marke.<br /><br />http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu/documents/PRISM_datasets.pdf<br /><br />You even say so above: <i>"The use of spatially gridded temperature data,"</i>Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-73687575686825226832015-09-21T12:11:20.431+10:002015-09-21T12:11:20.431+10:00Sorry, an extra two quoted paragraphs got in there...Sorry, an extra two quoted paragraphs got in there by accident.markehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06387629308058823374noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-22099703520202818872015-09-21T12:08:34.882+10:002015-09-21T12:08:34.882+10:00Mosher is being perhaps a little arrogant in his c...Mosher is being perhaps a little arrogant in his comment, as PRISM is mentioned in some detail in the article, and is highlighted in a couple of comments before Mosher jumps in.<br /><br />And in short, PRISM = modeled. Apparently with some pretty subjective variables:<br /><br /><i>".... a method for estimating UHI intensities using PRISM—Parameter-elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model—climate data, an analytical model that creates gridded estimates by incorporating climatic variables (temperature and precipitation), expert knowledge of climatic events (rain shadows, temperature inversions and coastal regimes) and digital elevation.<br /><br />The use of spatially gridded temperature data, rather than urban versus rural point comparisons, represents a new method for calculating a city's canopy heat island intensity." </i><br /><br />Models are fine, in their place, depending on the number of variables, the quality of the knowledge/data used to fill in those variables, and whether the basic underlying assumptions are correct and can be validated. And I am not sure their initial assumption (below) is necessarily valid:<br /><br /><i>Previous studies have reached the paradoxical conclusions that <b>both sprawling and high-density urban development can amplify urban heat island intensities,</b> which has prevented consensus on how best to mitigate the urban heat island effect via urban planning. <br />To investigate this apparent dichotomy, we estimated the urban heat island intensities of the 50 most populous cities in the United States using gridded <b>minimum temperature datasets</b> and quantified each city's urban morphology with spatial metrics. <br /><br />The results indicated that the spatial contiguity of urban development, regardless of its density or degree of sprawl, was a critical factor that influenced the magnitude of the urban heat island effect. A ten percentage point increase in urban spatial contiguity was predicted to enhance the minimum temperature annual average urban heat island intensity by between 0.3 and 0.4 °C. <br /><br />Therefore, city contiguity should be considered when devising strategies for urban heat island mitigation, with more discontiguous development likely to ameliorate the urban heat island effect. </i><br />http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0198971515300089<br /><br /><i>" ....studies have reached the paradoxical conclusions..." </i><br />It seems (from the abstract) they have assumed from the outset that 'sprawling urban development' must <i>not </i>amplify UHI intensities. Surely it is most likely that 'sprawling' and 'high-density urban development' will often <b>both</b> amplify urban heat island intensities, but to different extents?<br /><br />I do hope that somewhere in the study they validated their modelling with some actual temperature data.<br />markehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06387629308058823374noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-14564963640909719022015-09-20T02:06:42.009+10:002015-09-20T02:06:42.009+10:00While looking through the comments, most of whom h...While looking through the comments, most of whom hadn't bothered to read the abstract, let alone the paper itself, I was slightly cheered by self-styled "only sane man in the room" Steve Mosher in one of his anticontrarian moments.<br /><br /><i>Steven Mosher: The problem is they used PRISM data.<br /><br />there isnt a person on the site ( except me I guess) who has any idea what prism data is and what its limitations are.<br /><br />jeez guys… go look at the details before spouting off.</i><br />Magmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-74571448594943611912015-09-20T00:11:12.997+10:002015-09-20T00:11:12.997+10:00I don't think the two papers you cited are pro...I don't think the two papers you cited are proposing different mechanisms of convection. Drier areas don't convect heat as well as moist areas. The cities in red are drier then their surroundings, while the cities in blue are wetter than their surroundings.<br /><br />At least that's how I understand it.Everett F Sargenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00201577558036010680noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-3762611860407568192015-09-19T20:46:41.205+10:002015-09-19T20:46:41.205+10:00He's gotta hurry if its going to be a 'del...He's gotta hurry if its going to be a 'deliverable' for the US Presidential Election: looks like he's going to miss the Paris talks. <br /><br />I'd imagine that, with recent global temperatures, curvefitting doesn't give the desired result: so curvefitting is now so 2014. The imaginary pause doesn't exist even in rational people's dreams anymore. Richard Lindzen doesn't seem to manage these days to create the correctly incorrect conclusions from his 'interesting' hypotheses. So deniers will have little more than missinterpreting stolen emails if they don't get a finger out.Millicentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-47646697343969026512015-09-19T20:45:39.613+10:002015-09-19T20:45:39.613+10:00And when he's gone through all the existing jo...And when he's gone through all the existing journals, he could start his own. Isn't that what his fake organisation is for?Catmandohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12313870265499015076noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-11716381257795637842015-09-19T19:05:12.971+10:002015-09-19T19:05:12.971+10:00Give Anthony time, it's only been three years ...Give Anthony time, it's only been three years since his big announcement that it was about to be published. There are probably more than 2,000 journals relating to climate. If he's working through them one by one, it might take him a few years more before he finds one that will accept it. Or he might be aiming to get it into his very own journal, which will be launching its first edition a few years from now. /sarc<br /><br />I wonder if Anthony had a cut-off date for his weather stations. I am imagining his paper being published in 2020 or so, with temperature charts up to 2011 :(Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-73592923665213945662015-09-19T17:56:45.652+10:002015-09-19T17:56:45.652+10:00Will this new finding delay the Watts2012 paper ev...Will this new finding delay the Watts2012 paper even more? Catmandohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12313870265499015076noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-70943694512690640802015-09-19T17:09:07.147+10:002015-09-19T17:09:07.147+10:00@harry That was my first thought when I saw the L...@harry That was my first thought when I saw the LA Basin as dark blue. And, using confirmation bias as my guide, I immediately looked to see if the coal fired power plant regions were blue, too. Then I came to my senses and reigned in my armchair speculations, which is all I can do with sans data. I wonder if there will be more detailed analysis of this type of "microweather" phenomena. And, it will be interesting to see how this plays out in the more sophisticated of the denier crowd, if they take challenge at all. <br />Off topic: (Off blog!) if you haven't seen the latest spectacular image of "crescent Pluto" you gotta' drop everything and go look (New Horizons). The dozen or so distinct aerosol layers in the atmosphere are awesome enough, but the mountains and plains of Pluto are really ... out of this Solar System! (If NASA can send a probe to Pluto surely they can ...) J Gradienoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-61423823666754127542015-09-19T16:23:11.088+10:002015-09-19T16:23:11.088+10:00Some cities cool because of pollution and aerosols...Some cities cool because of pollution and aerosols. When a bushfire smoke cloud blows over Sydney, the cooling is noticeable.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11552461190113661645noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-30606107865371196052015-09-19T16:18:37.247+10:002015-09-19T16:18:37.247+10:00"Anthony didn't comment on the cooling ef...<i>"Anthony didn't comment on the cooling effect. He might not have noticed."</i><br /><br />Otherwise it would have been a "Claim:" article.Jammy Dodgerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08360437479098314946noreply@blogger.com