tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post6001093141136820653..comments2024-02-12T15:25:44.028+11:00Comments on HotWhopper: Nine Denier 101 Techniques: Anthony Watts gets into a hot spot in the tropical troposphereSouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comBlogger48125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-1496507703318604902015-05-25T23:22:07.752+10:002015-05-25T23:22:07.752+10:00Hey I think I've found another denier techniqu...Hey I think I've found another denier technique to add to the list. Not from Watts this time but from our very own illustrious leader: good old Tony.<br /><br />I spotted this story today (yeah I know, I'm a bit late):<br /><br />http://billmoyers.com/2015/04/02/worlds-worst-climate-villain-just-showed-us-exactly-stop-global-warming/<br /><br />The part of interest is the first few paragraphs. Note that Abbott is not promising to address Australia's emissions. What he's saying is that he wants a strong agreement to limit "carbon leakage". There are two interpretations that spring to mind. <br /><br />First, he could have just made an honest mistake, and meant to say carbon emissions. Then again, it's Tony Abbott.<br /><br />Number Two interpretation: Since carbon leakage is apparently defined as industry moving offshore to avoid regulation of emissions, it would stand to reason that a strong agreement to prevent "carbon leakage" would have to be a strong agreement that Australia wouldn't do a damned thing about regulating its emissions, because if it did this would merely cause industry to move offshore.<br /><br />If you're a climate science denying twat who wants to avoid taking effective action at any cost, this would be the perfect tactic for cultivating a pretense of sanctity while continuing to emit like crazy. He can go to Paris and argue against regulation of Australia's emissions on the grounds of being a wonderful global citizen who wants to prevent carbon leakage. This should also play well at home, since it'll mean keeping industry in Australia, which will be good for jobs, etc.<br /><br />Since Australia's commitment proposal for Paris has to be aired in June, about now is a good time to start softening people up with a sleight of hand trick that substitutes "carbon leakage" for "carbon emissions".<br /><br />Of course, it's possible I'm being too cynical, but it is the Coalition I'm talking about, and this is exactly the sort of tactic I would expect from them anyway.Contrail Chooknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-41310529957282309672015-05-18T04:46:53.499+10:002015-05-18T04:46:53.499+10:00Thanks for doing all this work Sou. I will have a ...Thanks for doing all this work Sou. I will have a good read.<br /><br />I am sure I read somewhere there would not be a cold spot as that was not how it worked. I will have to track that down and see if I can resolve my understanding.Jammy Dodgerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08360437479098314946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-85043382821092446252015-05-18T00:38:04.748+10:002015-05-18T00:38:04.748+10:00No with cooling there would be a cold spot. The me...No with cooling there would be a cold spot. The mechanism amplifies any temperature change at the surface. You can also see it in the seasonal variations, for example. <br /><br />This was another reason why climatologists expected that the mechanism was right and that it is simply hard to detect the trend due to all the non-climatic changes in the radiosondes used to measure temperature.Victor Venemahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02842816166712285801noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-36603123422341399122015-05-18T00:37:09.598+10:002015-05-18T00:37:09.598+10:00Jammy, I've added another article, including a...Jammy, I've added another article, including an explanation of why there wouldn't be a "hot spot" with global cooling. (It wouldn't be there if there was no warming either.)<br /><br />http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2015/05/about-that-tropical-hot-spot.htmlSouhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-55591744393613910182015-05-18T00:33:53.948+10:002015-05-18T00:33:53.948+10:00Probably no seepage. First of all the term is not ...Probably no seepage. First of all the term is not confusing. (Although it distracts a little from the harsh conditions up there, but people who know that that is a problem are not so easily confused.)<br /><br />Secondly, Peter Thorne, one of the main experts on this topic, claimed on twitter that the term "hot spot" is older.<br /><br />That type of 2D plot is extremely common. Thus that people call it a spot in not that surprising and I had not realised it was technically wrong until someone pointed that out this week.Victor Venemahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02842816166712285801noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-87267861332323736192015-05-18T00:11:52.989+10:002015-05-18T00:11:52.989+10:00"Seepage" :)"Seepage" :)Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-50394734703583429832015-05-18T00:07:21.361+10:002015-05-18T00:07:21.361+10:00"It's also not really a hotspot. It's..."It's also not really a hotspot. It's more like a band" - when sliced for a 2D presentation, it looks like a "hotspot". Apparently, according to some, it is Monckton who originally misunderstood and thought it really *is* a hotspot rather than band around the equator, and the term has stuck in the denialsphere. Which is why the literature doesn't use the term but, I guess, why a press release might.dhogazanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-8148214048011757392015-05-17T22:00:31.289+10:002015-05-17T22:00:31.289+10:00And it is very cold up there, which make measureme...And it is very cold up there, which make measurements very hard. The limit of the temperature sensor. Icing which blocks ventilation. Low air pressure, which reduces ventilation. A strong sun, which may heat the sensor. When the first temperature increases in the stratosphere where found, scientists assumed it was just a measurement error. An indication how difficult measurements are up there. Victor Venemahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02842816166712285801noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-52745751208689787942015-05-17T16:31:53.083+10:002015-05-17T16:31:53.083+10:00What lies beyond the kitchen sink? The disposall,...What lies beyond the kitchen sink? The disposall, of course. :) Steve Bloomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12943109973917998380noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-61729707527001248102015-05-17T16:23:48.105+10:002015-05-17T16:23:48.105+10:00What lies beyond the kitchen sink? The disposall,...What lies beyond the kitchen sink? The disposall, of course. :) Steve Bloomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12943109973917998380noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-38913905571241975642015-05-17T14:44:06.894+10:002015-05-17T14:44:06.894+10:00It's also not really a hotspot. It's more ...It's also not really a hotspot. It's more like a band in the upper troposphere around the equator (centred just above the equator atm).Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-42584346187086779932015-05-17T03:43:33.508+10:002015-05-17T03:43:33.508+10:00It is normally called the *tropical* hot spot, not...It is normally called the *tropical* hot spot, not tropospheric hot spot.Victor Venemahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02842816166712285801noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-33539260852775047242015-05-16T11:52:21.388+10:002015-05-16T11:52:21.388+10:00I'll see if I can pull together an article abo...I'll see if I can pull together an article about this over the next couple of days (I'm out all day today), and see if I can get a knowledgeable scientist to vet it - though that might be a challenge given it's the weekend. Still there's a lot of material around so I should be able to pull something together.<br /><br />(I think some of the comments here are off track.)Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-80534640610278910642015-05-16T08:49:34.399+10:002015-05-16T08:49:34.399+10:00Interesting. So, strictly speaking, less cooling ...Interesting. So, strictly speaking, less cooling isn't necessarily equivalent to greater warming ... :)<br />dhogazanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-78371804446933731302015-05-16T07:46:08.534+10:002015-05-16T07:46:08.534+10:00Yes, what they said. (dhogaza and Raoul, thanks).
...Yes, what they said. (dhogaza and Raoul, thanks).<br /><br />This video at 03:10 demonstrates a mechanism. Whether it is the whole story is another discussion.<br /><br />https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LM_sKZCv26A&feature=youtu.be&t=157<br /><br />Jammy Dodgerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08360437479098314946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-18535746476944805592015-05-16T07:28:29.277+10:002015-05-16T07:28:29.277+10:00Thanks for the link; fascinating stuff.Thanks for the link; fascinating stuff.Cugelnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-9482986857432802742015-05-16T07:25:27.823+10:002015-05-16T07:25:27.823+10:00I think Jammy is implying that the lapse rate will...I think Jammy is implying that the lapse rate will be reduced at some height due to the exothermic nature of water condensation, whether there be warming of cooling. But what is generally meant by "hot spot" is more than that, it's the fact that upper troposphere in the tropics should experience more warming, due to the above mentioned change in lapse rate, <b>and</b> increased moist convection as explained by Micheal Mann in this post: https://www.facebook.com/MichaelMannScientist/posts/899451636777706<br />Please correct me if I'm wrong.Raoulnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-47211905241470813812015-05-16T07:15:03.756+10:002015-05-16T07:15:03.756+10:00I suspect he means that warming will strengthen th...I suspect he means that warming will strengthen the so-called "hot spot", while some degree of cooling would lead to a weakening of the so-called "hot spot" but that it would still be there.<br /><br />The point of all this is the warming "fingerprint" (regardless of the source of the warming) helps validate atmospheric physics. The simple denialist attack is to pretend a strengthening "hotspot" can only be caused by AGW. But Christy and other more sophisticated denialists argue that its absence shows our understanding of atmospheric physics in the face of warming is seriously wrong, and the models based on those physics so seriously wrong as to be useless (or so Christy, in particular, has argued). <br /><br />It therefore becomes an argument, in Christy's hands, that GCMs are so flawed that GCM-computed sensitivity to CO2 should be ignored.<br />dhogazanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-60194243335049033312015-05-16T07:13:57.563+10:002015-05-16T07:13:57.563+10:00Excellent - Thanks, John.Excellent - Thanks, John.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-66668684951495616982015-05-16T06:56:03.960+10:002015-05-16T06:56:03.960+10:00https://www.facebook.com/MichaelMannScientist/post...https://www.facebook.com/MichaelMannScientist/posts/899451636777706john byattnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-2555663484744095242015-05-16T06:12:04.272+10:002015-05-16T06:12:04.272+10:00How? By what mechanism?How? By what mechanism?Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-15159361421076679282015-05-16T05:43:18.673+10:002015-05-16T05:43:18.673+10:00More than that Sou. It will be there with global c...More than that Sou. It will be there with global cooling. Jammy Dodgerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08360437479098314946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-56311422938650367172015-05-16T04:52:17.880+10:002015-05-16T04:52:17.880+10:00Where you might be getting confused, Jammy, is tha...Where you might be getting confused, Jammy, is that some deniers think that it will *only* be expected with greenhouse warming. As you rightly say, it can be with *any* warming - not just from greenhouse gases. Unlike, say, stratospheric cooling, which when combined with tropospheric warming *is* unique to greenhouse warming (AFAIK)Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-50193142570308901712015-05-16T04:41:57.767+10:002015-05-16T04:41:57.767+10:00Yes, "it" is the warmer upper tropospher...Yes, "it" is the warmer upper troposphere over the tropics. How can what I wrote be misleading? I said it will appear with global warming. It could appear without greenhouse warming if the globe warmed from something else, like El Nino warming or warming from extra energy from the sun. But that doesn't contradict the fact that it will also appear with warming from greenhouse gases (commonly called global warming).Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-86262560374965298062015-05-16T04:33:52.586+10:002015-05-16T04:33:52.586+10:00"So yes, it will appear with global warming.&...<i> "So yes, it will appear with global warming."</i><br /><br />I am not sure what you mean by "it" but I guess you mean a hotspot. <br /><br />That is slightly misleading because it will also appear without global warming.<br /><br />Jammy Dodgerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08360437479098314946noreply@blogger.com