tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post5696113735412713548..comments2024-03-25T05:30:23.847+11:00Comments on HotWhopper: Surface temperature is not so different from modelsSouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comBlogger26125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-88285606641140674812015-08-03T10:25:25.134+10:002015-08-03T10:25:25.134+10:00Are there CMIP-5 model output datasets that are na...Are there CMIP-5 model output datasets that are narrowly targeted at layers of troposphere above “surface,” against which the RSS and UAH variety of indices properly should be compared?Tom Daytonhttp://prestoinnovation.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-32983252316293398942015-08-03T03:19:10.299+10:002015-08-03T03:19:10.299+10:00Oh and the John Christy paper - it was written for...Oh and the John Christy paper - it was written for a congressional hearing wasn't it? Are such papers peer-reviewed? Not to mention starting each series at zero, and not mentioning the baseline used or the confidence interval.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11552461190113661645noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-11479803229883873462015-08-03T02:40:32.212+10:002015-08-03T02:40:32.212+10:00I am going to have to think about this some more.
...I am going to have to think about this some more.<br /><br />So they are saying that some air temperature observations have switched over to sea surface temperature observations, as measured at the ship engine intake ports etc?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11552461190113661645noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-36797466326704605082015-08-03T02:27:32.356+10:002015-08-03T02:27:32.356+10:00Yes, I had wondered about the sea surface temperat...Yes, I had wondered about the sea surface temperatures - they will not be the same as the air temperatures above the sea surface.<br /><br />I recall the GISTEMP doco said the difference was not all that important as they convert the sea surface temps into an anomaly, and there is reasons to treat the sea surface temperature anomaly as being the same as the anomaly in the air temperatures above the sea surface.<br /><br />All the more reason to not get hung up on the absolute average global temperature, but to concentrate on the anomaly instead?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11552461190113661645noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-26518658596947231672015-08-02T01:49:51.653+10:002015-08-02T01:49:51.653+10:00Hey, I'm a programmer too. That means I'm ...Hey, I'm a programmer too. That means I'm able to throw a neural net at the problem and see what comes up:<br />http://psychic-vr-lab.com/deepdream/pics/670884.html<br />numerobisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-28099662067172900722015-08-01T23:57:11.412+10:002015-08-01T23:57:11.412+10:00YKMMV your Koch money may vary...The GOP leaders s...YKMMV your Koch money may vary...The GOP leaders signed a pledge to the Koch Brothers to do nothing.looʞ oɹezhttp://arkansaswildlifephotography.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-14067685726992256272015-08-01T23:29:36.567+10:002015-08-01T23:29:36.567+10:00I'm moved to make a potentially inflammatory o...I'm moved to make a potentially inflammatory observation.<br /><br />When it becomes obvious to even the deniers of climate change that humans are changing the climate, we've long passed the point at which we can safely avoid serious disruption of our way of life, and perhaps even avoid the effective destruction of the same.<br /><br />That understanding should really inform whatever rear-guard action we take as a species, and the chances of pulling out of the nose-dive are directly proportional to the extemity of the urgency that may (or may not...) infuse those actions.<br /><br />Of course, YMMV, but time will tell.Bernard J.https://www.blogger.com/profile/16299073166371273808noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-70979097746904096812015-08-01T22:28:15.880+10:002015-08-01T22:28:15.880+10:00I like the idea that somewhere there is a "pr...<br />I like the idea that somewhere there is a "proper" set of historical temperature data. <br /><br />Also his caveat about not having too short a record for significance of some sort. That obviously does not matter when talking about a "pause"!Jammy Dodgerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08360437479098314946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-86143248381626799182015-08-01T21:59:56.545+10:002015-08-01T21:59:56.545+10:00I wonder if this will make the cheesy trick of mis...I wonder if this will make the cheesy trick of misaligning model/data obvious to even his dorkish followers.Millicentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-21600331635035719192015-08-01T14:59:21.641+10:002015-08-01T14:59:21.641+10:00Sou, I sent Martin Armstrong links to your most po...Sou, I sent Martin Armstrong links to your most popular (and powerful) stuff. He hasn't been doing anything denier in a long time. Hopefully, he is studying your fine work.<br />"There are really no past cycles to look at of polluting our atmosphere and oceans to anywhere near what they are now." I told him.<br /><br />Martin has repeatedly blamed Bill Clinton for rolling back Glass-Steagall. I also sent him <a href="http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=34677" rel="nofollow">proof</a> that Glass-Steagall was only on life support after Ronald Raygun. He's been quiet on that one as well. Maybe we're getting noticed...looʞ oɹezhttp://arkansaswildlifephotography.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-52545071950844113052015-08-01T11:13:16.859+10:002015-08-01T11:13:16.859+10:00It's been a pretty tough month for Willard. F...It's been a pretty tough month for Willard. First he loses his beloved pause and now he loses his model/data mismatch. I am crying for him, if I could, but the drought here in the west is too intense to waste the water!Rattus Norvegicushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03449457204330125792noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-70728272653972572362015-08-01T11:04:15.301+10:002015-08-01T11:04:15.301+10:00If he is a noaaprogrammer, he probably handles bus...If he is a noaaprogrammer, he probably handles business systems...Rattus Norvegicushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03449457204330125792noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-24766357158353003222015-08-01T01:39:30.756+10:002015-08-01T01:39:30.756+10:00Yep. Typical engineer/programmer thinking that bec...Yep. Typical engineer/programmer thinking that because they work in a technical field, that they know as much/more than the scientists.<br /><br />I'm an electrical engineer/programmer as well, but I *think* I know my limitations. For one thing, I know that feedback as applied to electronic circuits does not even remotely work the same way as feedback mechanisms in the climate system. That seems to be one of the engineering types biggest misconceptions.<br /><br />I guess (assuming you have the requisite level of acquired knowledge to be able to grasp the science at a fundamental level) how well you comprehend climate science is largely a function of how much you are prone to the D-K effect, and how much you allow your ideology to influence your understanding of the subject.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-86923165013945957322015-08-01T00:20:10.577+10:002015-08-01T00:20:10.577+10:00This is the sort of work that really highlights th...This is the sort of work that really highlights the value of models. Without a model you don't know (i) what you expect within the context of your understanding, (ii) you don't actually really know what you know or what your observations mean and (iii) you don''t really have much of a focus for investigating further. <br /><br />The dismal flaws in the (Spencer and Christy) radiosonde temperature measurements were uncovered due to the mismatch with models. Likewise the apparent mismatch between modeled temperature response to greenhouse forcings and measurements in the present case has provided a focus for investigation that highlights (again) some problems with the measurements, or at least in the manner that measurements are compared to models.<br /><br />So another hip-hip-hooray for models. chrisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-11940120945461161712015-07-31T23:26:31.736+10:002015-07-31T23:26:31.736+10:00And wow, I literally just went through the first &...And wow, I literally just went through the first "Q&A" as the first WUWT commenter. *sigh*Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02320395147911342848noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-89585025871971449262015-07-31T23:25:07.830+10:002015-07-31T23:25:07.830+10:00Never mind, perhaps. If there was a bias that sta...Never mind, perhaps. If there was a bias that started around a particular year, then the hindcasting prior to that should be good still.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02320395147911342848noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-29665212616961017822015-07-31T23:22:34.932+10:002015-07-31T23:22:34.932+10:00What are models reporting when they hindcast? The...What are models reporting when they hindcast? They're usually very good at doing that.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02320395147911342848noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-62969896544660286632015-07-31T22:47:24.056+10:002015-07-31T22:47:24.056+10:00Two comments in the Watts article from noaaprogram...Two comments in the Watts article from noaaprogrammer that really just contradict each other. Not really joined up thinking! Do you think he is trying to sound knowledgeable and sciencey?<br /><br />First:<br /><br /><i> noaaprogrammer<br />July 30, 2015 at 4:31 pm<br />Furthermore, they do err in trying to model chaotic phenomena with traditional, non-chaotic math.</i><br /><br />Followed by:<br /><br /><i> noaaprogrammer<br />July 30, 2015 at 4:42 pm<br />I wonder if a simple neural net program, trained on (proper) historical temperatures would do better than these models? (Of course the interval of time over which it is trained would make a significant difference.)</i><br /><br /><br />Jammy Dodgerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08360437479098314946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-74433356849206613512015-07-31T19:55:03.758+10:002015-07-31T19:55:03.758+10:00Correction passes offCorrection passes <b>off</b>PGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10807913317731807617noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-59669125857719053102015-07-31T19:53:43.243+10:002015-07-31T19:53:43.243+10:00Rob Honeycutt posted at Tamino how Watts passes of...Rob Honeycutt posted at Tamino how Watts passes of Christie's UAH graph as Cowtan's | July 30, 2015 at 7:23 pm | Reply<br /><br /><br />This one is already causing copious conniptions at Tony’s place.<br /><br />Instead of using the actually charts in the Cowtan et al paper, he replaces it with a bizarre John Christy chart that compares tropical (20S-20N) satellite data to an average of 102 CMIP5 models. And he gives that graph a highly misleading title that would lead the unsuspecting to believe it actually came from the paper.<br /><br />Instead of apples and oranges, Watts has moncked (my own invented term) this one up to the point that he’s deceptively comparing apples and aspartame.PGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10807913317731807617noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-48971223593069588042015-07-31T18:50:37.101+10:002015-07-31T18:50:37.101+10:00Already listed in refs above, John. (But thanks an...Already listed in refs above, John. (But thanks anyway :D)Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-13295872098026561982015-07-31T18:32:00.611+10:002015-07-31T18:32:00.611+10:00Tamino also covers the research, with his usual he...Tamino also covers the research, with his usual helpful statistical analysis. See <a href="https://tamino.wordpress.com/2015/07/30/getting-model-data-comparison-right/" rel="nofollow">here.</a> John Russellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04610757244403601917noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-63869823495043448972015-07-31T16:11:46.385+10:002015-07-31T16:11:46.385+10:00Thanks. Fixed. (I'm having an off day today, a...Thanks. Fixed. (I'm having an off day today, as you can probably tell.- with apologies to the authors especially.)Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-47254223283470055492015-07-31T15:58:04.574+10:002015-07-31T15:58:04.574+10:00*cough* Geophysical Research Letters *cough* - in ...*cough* Geophysical Research Letters *cough* - in your opening ledeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-81553513298352220122015-07-31T15:46:31.731+10:002015-07-31T15:46:31.731+10:00Good question, CF. I understand that a couple of d...Good question, CF. I understand that a couple of different people thought of doing something about this around the same time. Kevin Cowtan has earned a reputation for thoroughness, rigour and attention to detail, so the different people joined forces once they found out Kevin was investigating this, and different authors contributed different things to the research.<br /><br />The thing is that while the fact that there was a difference between the way models and obs were recorded was known, the data only started diverging markedly after around 2005, so the impetus to work out the discrepancy wouldn't have been there in the past.<br /><br />Also, it's one thing to know it in theory, but quite another to go through all the data and quantify the difference. The size of the discrepancy is probably a surprise to some people The paper reports:<br /><br /><i>"Applying the methodology of the HadCRUT4 record to climate model temperature fields accounts for 38% of the discrepancy in trend between models and observations over the period 1975-2014."</i><br /><br />As I understand it, a lot of the work had to be done on a grid by grid basis, working out where there was ice. As well as for a number of different models and model runs. That's a lot of data to work through. And if you read the paper, they examined it in multiple different ways. <br /><br />My blog article doesn't do it justice. I'm seriously impressed with the amount of work they did and the very thorough approach. Kevin Cowtan is cementing his reputation as a serious contributor to climate science, which isn't his main field of research. You could call it a hobby - or second vocation.<br /><br />AFAIK, this was an unfunded project - though the acknowledgements state that various research institutes allowed use of their computers etc.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.com