tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post5601354269878652298..comments2024-03-25T05:30:23.847+11:00Comments on HotWhopper: No, there's no La Niña. BoM has announced ENSO inactiveSouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-906456659457044492016-12-08T13:24:46.442+11:002016-12-08T13:24:46.442+11:00Thanks, JCH - good sleuthing. (For lurkers - ONI i...Thanks, JCH - good sleuthing. (For lurkers - ONI is <a href="https://data.noaa.gov/dataset/climate-prediction-center-cpcoceanic-nino-index" rel="nofollow">NOAA's Oceanic Nino Index</a>).<br /><br />Yes - Not sure where you got the quote from, JCH, but AFAIK it's more about what's happening at the surface, because of changes below the surface and at the surface (warm water pooling and spreading, and upwelling of cooler water spreading out), making more of the surface cooler or warmer, which affects the atmosphere and land surface too. (See comment <a href="http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2016/12/scott-adams-puff-piece-on-disputing.html?showComment=1481092265338#c8908532963417506872" rel="nofollow">here </a>and references in the article.)Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-46241537114195051822016-12-08T13:17:24.149+11:002016-12-08T13:17:24.149+11:00For lurkers: ONI=Oceanic Niño Index, used by NOAA
...For lurkers: ONI=Oceanic Niño Index, used by NOAA<br /><br />https://data.noaa.gov/dataset/climate-prediction-center-cpcoceanic-nino-indexSouhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-60500106971673725282016-12-08T11:45:14.683+11:002016-12-08T11:45:14.683+11:00Meanwhile the CBC reports on how La Niña will mean...Meanwhile the CBC reports on how La Niña will mean that arctic Canada will be very cold this winter:<br /><br />http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/weather-winter-holiday-outlook-1.3885241<br /><br />I'm not making this up.numerobisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-17156730339450557172016-12-08T09:02:12.079+11:002016-12-08T09:02:12.079+11:00Sou - I find the "El Niño sheds ocean heat; L...Sou - I find the "El Niño sheds ocean heat; La Niña stores heat" descriptions somewhat unsatisfying. It will be great when they have numbers for 2000 meters to the bottom as I suspect the drop in OHC associated with El Niño may in part be caused by warm water in the Western Pacific dropping under 2000 meters as ONI drops into neutral.<br /><br />OHC – 0 to 2000 meters<br /><br />2014-3, 20.874861<br />2014-6, 19.914608<br />2014-9, 18.526079<br />2014-12, 21.123238 – ONI: +0.4, (El Niño begins) +0.5, +0.6; GISS anomaly – .78 ℃<br /><br />2015-3, 23.416958 – ONI: +0.6, +0.5, +0.6; GISS anomaly: .87 ℃<br />2015-6, 22.368597 – ONI: +0.7, +0.8, +1.0; GISS anomaly: .77 ℃<br />2015-9, 21.546423 – ONI: +1.2,+1.4, +1.7: GISS anomaly: .78 ℃<br />2015-12, 22.271896 – ONI: +2.0,+2.2, +2.3: GISS anomaly: 1.07 ℃<br /><br />2016-3, 22.996992 – ONI: +2.2, +2.0, +1.6: GISS anomaly: 1.27 ℃<br />2016-6, 20.037872 – ONI: +1.1, +0.6, (El Niño ends) +0.1: GISS anomaly: .93 ℃<br />2016-9, 19.772640 – ONI: -0.3, -0.6, (La Niña watch) -0.7: GISS anomaly: .91 ℃<br />JCHnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-80649946544115010812016-12-08T00:23:28.982+11:002016-12-08T00:23:28.982+11:00Thanks :)Thanks :)Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-14485528489051042212016-12-07T22:41:01.696+11:002016-12-07T22:41:01.696+11:00I love the figure 3 graphic. Simple yet compellin...I love the figure 3 graphic. Simple yet compelling.NPThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02709384948801604808noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-51227989613502187892016-12-07T08:57:34.891+11:002016-12-07T08:57:34.891+11:00This can't be right. Breitbart told me soThis can't be right. <a href="https://weather.com/news/news/breitbart-misleads-americans-climate-change?cm_ven=T_WX_CD_120616_2" rel="nofollow"> Breitbart</a> told me soPGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10807913317731807617noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-12984900128964742882016-12-07T08:51:36.529+11:002016-12-07T08:51:36.529+11:00This comment has been removed by the author.PGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10807913317731807617noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-36069908758835210022016-12-07T05:59:49.685+11:002016-12-07T05:59:49.685+11:00BOM now forecasts ONI going up starting in January...BOM now forecasts ONI going up starting in January 2017, which anomalies in 2017 could easily fall in the .90 to .99 ℃ range through the NH summer.<br /><br />In other words, relative to the record, 2017 could end up the 2nd warmest year in the records, and, should an El Niño develop later in 2017... Ivanka and my three babies, could you bring Al Gore back to see me!JCHnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-47878369432609349192016-12-07T04:56:27.486+11:002016-12-07T04:56:27.486+11:00A good piece on what Gavin Schmidt actually thinks...A good piece on what Gavin Schmidt actually thinks, including a prediction for the annual anomaly for 2017 <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-we-dont-know-if-it-will-be-sunny-next-month-but-we-know-itll-be-hot-all-year/" rel="nofollow">is here</a>swimbouynoreply@blogger.com