tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post5528298078992482290..comments2024-02-12T15:25:44.028+11:00Comments on HotWhopper: Denier weirdness: Christopher Monckton and his 100% consensusSouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comBlogger102125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-64665573499625457802014-07-17T04:55:00.317+10:002014-07-17T04:55:00.317+10:00Nah, I like it. Keep up the good work, BBD :DNah, I like it. Keep up the good work, BBD :DSouhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-4323798654981603802014-07-17T04:50:10.319+10:002014-07-17T04:50:10.319+10:00John is desperate to avoid acknowledging the soari...John is desperate to avoid acknowledging the soaring social costs of CO2 emissions. The countries that will continue to suffer the greatest calamities are the ones he patronizingly suggests should jump on the fossil fuel bandwagon. A terribly short-sighted solution.<br /><br />BTW, the "no warming in x years" meme makes one look like an idiot, and idiots don't get to be martyrs.whimcyclehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03233875987724163338noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-61167999686235778662014-07-17T04:46:10.816+10:002014-07-17T04:46:10.816+10:00Sorry Sou, we crossed. You can take my last down t...Sorry Sou, we crossed. You can take my last down too if you want. BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-74289056136616481302014-07-17T04:45:19.173+10:002014-07-17T04:45:19.173+10:00BBD, there is quite a bit of difference between th...<i>BBD, there is quite a bit of difference between theoretically possible and financially viable. </i><br /><br />You are arguing from assertion, again, and arguments from assertion are logical fallacies. Which means: you lose.<br /><br />First, you asserted - wrongly - that solar could <i>never</i> power an ICU. Now you are asserting that it could never do so cost-effectively. You have no means of knowing this so it is a mere assertion. <br /><br />You are also asserting that coal mining, coal-fired plant and traditional grid infrastructure are the <i>only</i> way forward for the developing world. This is simply not true. Mixed generation technologies and decentralised generation are vital components of the emerging power infrastructure in developing countries. I get the strong sense that you know absolutely nothing about this but find bleating about "the poor" a useful tactic in promoting your "scepticism" on other matters. BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-36395341480192747712014-07-17T04:20:26.460+10:002014-07-17T04:20:26.460+10:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Johnnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-60786885323574137592014-07-17T04:12:49.469+10:002014-07-17T04:12:49.469+10:00There's probably more on solar power for hospi...There's probably more on solar power for hospitals in Africa -<a href="http://lmgtfy.com/?q=African+hospital+solar+power" rel="nofollow"> let's try Google.</a>Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-44058414996000063662014-07-17T04:04:43.040+10:002014-07-17T04:04:43.040+10:00Do you have an example of a hospital that has chos...<i>Do you have an example of a hospital that has chosen to power itself as such? Or how about even a plan for one? What is the cost? </i><br /><br />Not a hospital but several utilities are <a href="http://cleantechnica.com/2014/07/09/new-energy-storage-demo-for-northwest-winds/" rel="nofollow">now testing vanadium flow batteries</a>. Since these are known to work there is no reason why they should not provide overnight power to a hospital. Consequently, your assertion is false:<br /><br /><i>Solar is just not going to power the intensive care unit at the hospital.</i>BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-7642220287932073362014-07-17T03:56:54.421+10:002014-07-17T03:56:54.421+10:00John: And, Sou, why are you reluctant to get into ...John: <i>And, Sou, why are you reluctant to get into a discussion on this topic? </i><br /><br />Sheesh, John. I already put quite a bit of thought and effort into my responses on the subject for what? So you can repeat what you've already said over and over? Barely any acknowledgement, not even an "oh yes, I hadn't thought of that". Or "I take your point but I disagree because xyz".<br /><br />Enough is enough. What I said was I don't have the time or the inclination for a drawn out discussion. I repeat - a drawn out discussion. And you want to draw it out further, yet you just keep repeating the same old stuff. That's not a conversation. You aren't adding a thing. Unlike other HotWhopperites.<br /><br />The reason I don't have the inclination is obvious, given the way you've treated all of us who have engaged with you.<br /><br />As for time - my time is precious. Already I've spent an awful lot of time and effort responding to your list of questions and doing the research you asked for. I've written more responses just for you on this thread than I've written on any other thread in ages. If you want to engage my services, let me know where to send the bill.<br /><br />It's typical of deniers. They demand the earth and give bugger all back.<br /><br />Just so you know - I research and write articles for free for people's entertainment, information, to rebut, to lead people to explore further, to amuse, to groan at or whatever. <br /><br />I provide the comment facility so that readers can have a conversation or add information or pass the (on topic) time of day. <br /><br />I'm not your freebie R&D department.<br /><br />Deniers are like toddlers - so demanding. I've noticed that over and over again - not just here. It was the same at HotCopper. Do this and do it now! (Usually with a foot stamp or a tantrum.)Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-56956232451536747052014-07-17T03:51:37.778+10:002014-07-17T03:51:37.778+10:00BBD,
Do you have an example of a hospital that ha...BBD,<br /><br />Do you have an example of a hospital that has chosen to power itself as such? Or how about even a plan for one? What is the cost? <br /><br />Vanadium batteries are actually quite exciting, I agree. And, they could have a wide range of applications including traditional power generation as it is still desirable to store energy to facilitate ramping up the energy source to meet the fluctuations in demand during the day. Johnnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-9191596462067606822014-07-17T03:32:18.751+10:002014-07-17T03:32:18.751+10:00"(not the the ICU therein)" --> "..."(not the the ICU therein)" --> "(not just the ICU therein)"BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-19358182960672581782014-07-17T03:31:07.068+10:002014-07-17T03:31:07.068+10:00Solar would be fine for powering an African hospit...Solar would be fine for powering an African hospital (not the the ICU therein) so long as it is supported by utility-scale batteries. That looks like <a href="http://cleantechnica.com/2014/04/29/floodgates-open-vanadium-flow-batteries/" rel="nofollow">a realistic possibility now.</a> <br /><br />Utility-scale batteries make wind and solar much more workable propositions for sustained and stable supply. And that makes them game-changers. The need for a huge build-out of coal-fired plant just disappears. <br /><br />You need to think flexibly and constructively in order to solve problems. BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-85138604730151531602014-07-17T03:10:24.934+10:002014-07-17T03:10:24.934+10:00Yes, Sou, Africa has a problem besides energy. It...Yes, Sou, Africa has a problem besides energy. It is lack of freedom. Help them get access to freedom and cheap energy, and they will flourish. <br /><br />The question remains, why are China and India building so many coal power plants? Is it because we are forcing them? The fossil fuel lobby? It is the opposite. They know it is their best choice to get the most people out of poverty. They aren't going to agree to anything that restricts their ability to do so. <br /><br />And, Sou, why are you reluctant to get into a discussion on this topic? It is, after all, the most important topic your website could address. How to save all of those people? How to give the people of Niger the ability to write blogs such as this one? Hard to do without real energy. I bet you can blog even when the sun is not shining, and the wind is not blowing. <br /><br />The developing world should build the energy infrastructure that helps the most people the fastest at the most efficient cost. If you can show that solar is the way, then I am the biggest supporter of solar there is. But you can't. Solar is just not going to power the intensive care unit at the hospital. Where it has its place, great. Let it have its place.Johnnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-24567372566990981052014-07-17T02:55:34.003+10:002014-07-17T02:55:34.003+10:00Seeing as you are still here flogging your dead do...Seeing as you are still here flogging your dead donkey, r should I say mole there is a new report which might, just might, make you better informed, just up at Skeptical Science:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.skepticalscience.com/Atlas-of-Mortality-and-Economic-Losses_WMO.html" rel="nofollow">Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water Extremes</a>.Lionel Ahttp://lionels.orpheusweb.co.uk/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-72921685193040565372014-07-17T02:00:00.670+10:002014-07-17T02:00:00.670+10:00Distributed generation seems like the smart choice...Distributed generation seems like the smart choice. There are strong parallels to the way that much of the developing world leapfrogged land-line phones and went straight to mobiles. Don Brookshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379725341973886243noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-3618949927736040152014-07-17T01:35:34.517+10:002014-07-17T01:35:34.517+10:00Exactly. Here in Australia people got electricity ...Exactly. Here in Australia people got electricity first when the grid went past their residence. When I was at school I used to visit with school mates whose homes didn't have electricity - and that was in the second half of the twentieth century, more than sixty years after Melbourne first got electricity.<br /><br />Nowadays smaller settlements can generate their own power and hook up to a wider grid as it's developed. They don't need to wait. It means being smart (pun intended). Solar and wind are an ideal first choice or replacement for expensive diesel generators.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-10582694146980339962014-07-17T00:45:48.982+10:002014-07-17T00:45:48.982+10:00The grid wouldn't work in a place with despera...The grid wouldn't work in a place with desperately poor governance like Congo but plenty of countries have merely mediocre governance, which was good enough for the West. Historically, we electrified the cities with little regulation because there was profit to be made; then the towns and villages with a government push.<br /><br />That said, the best way to bring power isn't necessarily to do it how we did in the late 19th to mid 20th century. The developed world has worked out point-sourced grids, and is (despite the johns) working out how to run distributed power generation grids. The developing world can just run with that, building out their electric distribution systems using our best technologies and their best ideas for adapting them to local conditions -- and will be doing it much faster than how long it took us.numerobisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-66288019929030200232014-07-17T00:28:00.879+10:002014-07-17T00:28:00.879+10:00If you care so much about Africa and so desperatel...If you care so much about Africa and so desperately want them to be burning fossil fuels, why do you want the developed world to stay off renewables? If we switch to renewables, fossil fuel prices will fall and Africa can buy them on the cheap!numerobisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-86645822443731023912014-07-17T00:23:53.692+10:002014-07-17T00:23:53.692+10:00The fallacy is "One person limiting their con...The fallacy is "One person limiting their consumption (or in the case of CO2, emission) merely makes room for another to take more." It's additive. If we both piss in the stream, it really is worse than if just one pisses in the stream.Joenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-81959756409193828642014-07-17T00:04:40.226+10:002014-07-17T00:04:40.226+10:00I'm not going to get into a drawn out discussi...I'm not going to get into a drawn out discussion on this with you, John. I don't have the time or the inclination. But kudos to you for at least giving it some thought. Maybe you'll even think longer term and consider the needs of the broader population in places like Africa, and what solutions would suit best. The old-fashioned distribution set up in places like the USA and Australia don't adapt well to many African countries.<br /><br />Niger is a desperately poor country but I expect it will be the wealthier people, the mining companies and the larger centres that will benefit first and foremost. Much of the population elsewhere won't. In any case, for centres that can afford/justify the building of a distribution grid (arguably where a huge amount of the cost is incurred), projects like <a href="http://cleantechnica.com/2014/05/14/is-3000mw-of-new-nigeria-solar-power-a-model-to-end-energy-poverty/" rel="nofollow">this</a> and <a href="http://cleantechnica.com/2014/07/16/globeleq-commissions-south-africas-largest-wind-energy-project/" rel="nofollow">these</a> are going to be the way of the future, not just for Africa but for elsewhere in the world. Maybe <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2014/05/29/world-bank-boost-to-niger-for-renewable-energy-and-irrigation-projects" rel="nofollow">this one too</a>, though hydro schemes can have unwanted consequences and, like coal projects, displace people. Coal is a short term fix that will be dirty and harmful - and uses a lot more land than wind.<br /><br />For the many people who live in smaller towns and around villages that won't get access to any distribution grid, the solution is mostly local solar, plus maybe some windpower. However it has to be <a href="http://news.nationalgeographic.com.au/news/energy/2011/11/111102-solar-power-in-nigeria/" rel="nofollow">done properly and maintained</a>.<br /><br />I know you favour burning coal and diesel and oil for electricity. But that won't last forever. Even if it didn't cause global warming -the longer term future is in renewables. <br /><br />There are many reasons to rethink the electricity production and distribution model - not least of which are reach into less densely populated areas as well as continuity of supply, particularly as global warming gets worse. And particularly in areas that haven't yet made huge capital investment in infrastructure. Power cuts in heat waves are not nice. In fact they are downright dangerous.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-19258682209623371862014-07-17T00:02:09.481+10:002014-07-17T00:02:09.481+10:00In response to John's earlier question ("...In response to John's earlier question ("Which extreme weather events are increasing?"):<br /><br />The World Meteorological Organisation — <a href="http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/transfer/2014.06.12-WMO1123_Atlas_120614.pdf" rel="nofollow">The Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water Extremes 1970-2012</a><br /><br />As summarized in <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/blog/2014/jul/14/8-charts-climate-change-world-more-dangerous" rel="nofollow">The Guardian</a> (focus on the message, John, not the messenger):<br /><br />"The bottom line: natural disasters are occurring nearly five times as often as they were in the 1970s. But some disasters – such as floods and storms – pose a bigger threat than others. Flooding and storms are also taking a bigger bite out of the economy. But heat waves are an emerging killer."<br />whimcyclehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03233875987724163338noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-69342836368743951242014-07-16T23:45:58.769+10:002014-07-16T23:45:58.769+10:00Sou,
As a part of that last post, let me ask you ...Sou,<br /><br />As a part of that last post, let me ask you this. How many people die as a result of having no access to electricity? I don't honestly know the answer. I have seen that 5,000 people die each day from using wood in the kitchen alone. But, the number can't be small.<br /><br />And to those of you who question my sincerity and ask me what I am doing to help the Africans. Does it matter? If the policies that I advocate would save millions of lives, does it matter how much charitable work that I do in evaluating those policies? What if those policies save millions of lives and also make me rich? Does it matter? It wouldn't, by the way.Johnnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-53718703805163335602014-07-16T22:37:36.334+10:002014-07-16T22:37:36.334+10:00So Sou,
Here is a real life example. Do you supp...So Sou,<br /><br />Here is a real life example. Do you support the building of this coal fired power plant in Niger?<br /><br />http://www.africanmanager.com/site_eng/detail_article.php?art_id=22190<br /><br />In rough numbers, it seems that half of Africa's 1.2 Billion people have no access to electricity. And those that do, have nothing like what you and I think of as "electricity" that is on pretty much all the time. It seems that only in South Africa do they have anything like what we know of as electricity, and they use about half the amount of electricity per capita as do people in Australia, for example. <br /><br />It seems that building this plant would, among other things, save on wood being used for cooking, etc. <br /><br />What other choices do they have? Let's say they are hiring you as their energy consultant. What would you recommend they do? What kind of electricity infrastructure would give them the kind of power that you and I enjoy. The kind that is on all the time.Johnnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-33705080037182081262014-07-16T06:18:07.233+10:002014-07-16T06:18:07.233+10:00However, if F is zero or even negative then a mo...<i>However, if F is zero or even negative then a modest temperature rise of about 1 degree is expected which may even be beneficial. </i><br /><br />Low sensitivity to radiative perturbation is effectively ruled out by known paleoclimate variability <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v491/n7426/full/nature11574.html" rel="nofollow">(Rohling et al. 2012).</a><br /><br /><i>It seems likely that there are stabilizing effects on climate which lead a water covered planet like Earth to self-regulate temperatures </i><br /><br />In other words, feedbacks to radiative perturbation net negative and result in a relatively insensitive climate system. Ruled out by known paleoclimate variability. <br /><br />There's no scientific case for low S. *All* the evidence points to moderate fast-feedback sensitivity of ~3C/2xCO2. <br /><br />BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-90612913917886566092014-07-16T03:23:27.308+10:002014-07-16T03:23:27.308+10:00Yes, Joe, that is the Tragedy of the Commons. But...Yes, Joe, that is the Tragedy of the Commons. But how is that a fallacy? Maybe you meant to say "meet the Tragedy of the Commons."<br /><br />If there is an impending crisis, then individual action is futile. There must be some kind of international agreement. One person limiting their consumption (or in the case of CO2, emission) merely makes room for another to take more. In assessing this issue, one must ask what China's goals are. Are they peaceful harmony in the world? Or are they more akin to world domination?Johnnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-6454258958160274372014-07-16T01:59:57.043+10:002014-07-16T01:59:57.043+10:00http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_common...http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons<br /><br />I should do what's right for me, after all China is doing what's right for them. The hell with the planet that we all live in.Joenoreply@blogger.com