tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post5333662649452063989..comments2024-03-25T05:30:23.847+11:00Comments on HotWhopper: Knock me down with a Happer! Anthony Watts Builds a StrawmanSouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-35437404849213528812013-04-19T22:48:08.389+10:002013-04-19T22:48:08.389+10:00I think the problem for futurity may be a combinat...I think the problem for futurity may be a combination of intellectual and thermal inertias.<br /><br />Based on the simple calculation above the *equilibrium* response to 800ppmv CO2 would be about 4.5C, so the *transient* response might be ~3C or a little higher. This could be a plausible scenario for the close of the century based on current emissions trajectories.<br /><br />But as <a href="http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12181&page=R8" rel="nofollow">Verner Suomi observed</a> many decades ago:<br /><br /><i>the ocean, the great and ponderous flywheel of the global climate system, may be expected to slow the course of observable climatic change. A wait-and-see policy may mean waiting until it is too late.</i><br /><br />And indeed it might be, because at ~3C the warming is expected to have begun to engage strongly with the carbon cycle. Permafrost melt, plant metabolism, ocean absorption: more GHGs whether we stop emitting or not. More warming whether we stop emitting or not. And remember that at 800ppmv CO2 we are *committed* to 4.5C anyway *plus* the carbon cycle feedbacks...<br /><br />Six degrees? Who knows and who wants to find out empirically? Nobody who understands the problem, that's for sure. So it's reasonable to argue that the deniers <i>simply do not understand the problem.</i><br /><br />Yes, Teh Stupid can kill. BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-23489944370678217752013-04-19T21:06:41.440+10:002013-04-19T21:06:41.440+10:00BBD - Looks about right to me. Depends what we do...BBD - Looks about right to me. Depends what we do. <br /><br />One of the reasons we probably won't get to six degrees for a while is that if/as it gets too hot society will break down or falter at the very least, which will slow down emissions. Even the increase in weather disasters and shifting climates will slow economic growth - which will also slow fossil fuel burning. Remember the GFC.<br /><br />If we don't slow down emissions, then we might have a decade or two more of relative stability before it all starts to go haywire. (My opinion only.)Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-7040305320934188812013-04-19T21:00:39.262+10:002013-04-19T21:00:39.262+10:00I certainly hope not. This wasn't a predictio...I certainly hope not. This wasn't a prediction, it was a warning. I'm trying to get to the relevant report but the website seems to be down. At a guess, I'd say the IEA based the caution on a continuing growth (probably an acceleration) in carbon emissions, approx half staying in the atmosphere and a climate sensitivity of 3 degrees.<br /><br />Whether or not it happens, Harper is dead wrong and Anthony is shoring up his reputation as a serial disinformer.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-61264763572957245822013-04-19T20:55:12.248+10:002013-04-19T20:55:12.248+10:00Sorry, should have fleshed that out a bit. Assume ...Sorry, should have fleshed that out a bit. Assume ECS/2xCO2= 3C:<br /><br />dT = 3ln(800/280)/in(2) = 4.5C<br /><br />Plausible for century's end?BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-74763686948207591962013-04-19T20:51:28.241+10:002013-04-19T20:51:28.241+10:00Birol might be correct in the long run. Rose was w...Birol might be correct in the long run. Rose was wrong twice. There's no way we are going to get 6C by the end of the century. BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.com