tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post5287400284986773472..comments2024-03-25T05:30:23.847+11:00Comments on HotWhopper: Perennially Puzzled Bob Tisdale knows zilch about ocean heat...Souhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-56020719035749760722014-02-07T11:25:50.863+11:002014-02-07T11:25:50.863+11:00It sounds as if Bob is commenting on the flux at t...It sounds as if Bob is commenting on the flux at the surface. What he is missing is that it's getting hotter, therefore there is an imbalance in the system overall. If there were no radiative imbalance then Earth would not be getting hotter.<br /><br />The top of atmosphere flux can be measured more easily because it's just incoming minus reflected minus long wave out. At the surface there are lots of things happening and happening differently at different spots on earth - eg the ocean fluxes are different to those on ice which are different to those on vegetation which are different to those on bare earth. Altitude makes a difference too. And what happens in the atmosphere makes a difference at any time too. Eg clouds.<br /><br />While more spots at the surface are being measured, you can't measure every single spot all the time.<br /><br />Kevin Trenberth and others have been looking at the radiation budget.<br /><br />The following article covers some of these topics and has links to some relevant papers / articles:<br /><br />http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2014/01/unbalanced-at-wuwt-earths-energy-budget.htmlSouhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-23094284212801089252014-02-07T11:06:18.111+11:002014-02-07T11:06:18.111+11:00Help! Can you please comment on Tisdales assertio...Help! Can you please comment on Tisdales assertion that 0.6+-17 W/m^2 essentially means nothing? I'm trying to educate myself about climate, and I can't really find fault in his assertion that: "In other words, the imbalance may or may not exist." What am I missing?Yonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-8377431730546615082013-12-26T21:24:34.813+11:002013-12-26T21:24:34.813+11:00Oops - my bad. I should have read your post more c...Oops - my bad. I should have read your post more carefully, Rob. Shows what a novice I am when it comes to the oceans. Thanks for the explanations. <br /><br />One of the topics on my to do list for 2014 is to learn as much as I can about the oceans and the ocean-atmosphere interactions. I've not even touched the surface so far :) - there is so much to take in. <br /><br />I may give you a shout from time to time. (You've written some <a href="http://www.skepticalscience.com/A-Looming-Climate-Shift-Will-Ocean-Heat-Come-Back-to-Haunt-us.html" rel="nofollow">good articles on SkS</a>.)Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-28603608649003916292013-12-26T20:47:24.213+11:002013-12-26T20:47:24.213+11:00The PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) is the North...The PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) is the North Pacific pattern of sea surface temperatures associated with the change in wind-forcing, whereas the IPO (Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation) is the Pacific-wide pattern of sea surface temperatures. The IPO is more relevant as it describes the sea surface temperatures for the whole Pacific, not just the North Pacific.<br /><br />The wind-driven ocean circulation and the pattern of sea surface temperatures recorded in the IPO index are one and the same. When the IPO is negative (2000-to present) the gyre circulation intensifies - warming the mid-latitude ocean and cooling the tropics. When the IPO is positive (warm) the circulation is sluggish and the tropical surface ocean warms.<br /><br />So, based on knowledge of the wind-driven circulation these trends are likely to change when the IPO switches to its positive phase. The Pacific Basin should warm when currents which export heat out of the Pacific begin to weaken.<br /><br />This strengthening and weakening of the circulation over decadal timescales also leaves a distinctive spatial pattern in short-term sea level rise - the tidal gauges in Northern & Western Australia show anomalous increases when more water is pushed through the Indonesian Archipelago. So tidal gauges at specific locations also record the chnage in phase of the IPO going back in time too. Rob Paintinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14198427903627448320noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-14702353175645233452013-12-26T19:42:22.822+11:002013-12-26T19:42:22.822+11:00Thanks, Rob. I take it that's represented by ...Thanks, Rob. I take it that's represented by the wide purple line going through Indonesia in the diagram above - from the Pacific to the Indian ocean. Plus the dotted line with circles going from the Indian to the Atlantic.<br /><br />Are you saying there is a direct link between this wind-driven intensification and the PDO? Or perhaps it is influencing the PDO? (I understand there is an association between ENSO phases and the PDO.) Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-55348318628947413832013-12-26T19:14:03.035+11:002013-12-26T19:14:03.035+11:00Sou - when the wind-driven ocean circulation inten...<b>Sou</b> - when the wind-driven ocean circulation intensifies, there is a strong export of near-surface water out of the Pacific Basin and into the Indian Ocean via the Indonesian Throughflow. The (observed) spin-up of the Indian Ocean gyre likewise exports heat into the Atlantic Ocean via the Agulhas Current (around the bottom end of Africa).<br /><br />The wind-driven ocean circulation has intensified since the early 1990's and since around 2000 (the switch to the negative (cool) phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation) has remained in a relatively vigorous state.<br /><br />The observations are largely consistent with physical oceanography. That Tisdale doesn't understand any of this is no great surprise. <br /><br /> Rob Paintinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14198427903627448320noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-20189000337094108022013-12-21T18:05:24.171+11:002013-12-21T18:05:24.171+11:00Thanks vitaminccs. Those are terrific.Thanks vitaminccs. Those are terrific.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-71458407907607875672013-12-21T13:06:13.823+11:002013-12-21T13:06:13.823+11:00Sou, this is worth a watch if you haven't seen...Sou, this is worth a watch if you haven't seen it already:<br /><br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xusdWPuWAoU<br /><br />And this is amazing too!<br /><br />http://earth.nullschool.net/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-36473769526726838072013-12-21T09:10:01.127+11:002013-12-21T09:10:01.127+11:00I had a thought today. If earth's surface temp...I had a thought today. If earth's surface temperature rises fast enough in response to the increasing GHG forcing then the energy imbalance is rapidly closed reducing ocean heat intake.<br /><br />But on the otherhand if surface temperature rises too slow (eg PDO sinks the heat) then the energy imbalance from greenhouse gases will increase over time as GHGs rise. Wouldn't that mean ocean heat intake would increase sharply and cause an acceleration in sea level?<br /><br />What's the potential rate of sea level rise at a doubling of CO2 if the surface temperature is fixed?markusnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-44407421764793687732013-12-21T07:14:27.328+11:002013-12-21T07:14:27.328+11:00Sadly, it doesn't matte that Bob Tisdale is wr...Sadly, it doesn't matte that Bob Tisdale is wrong (again). He made a post that the deniers can link to. For those who can't understand the science, or don't care to try, that's all they need to dismiss ocean heating. <br /><br />Watts et al are in the business of constructing an alternate reality -- a counter argument -- ANY counter argument -- to the scientific ideas behind AGW. It only has to sound plausible. They are, as they say, "useful idiots." There will never be an end to them.David Appellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03318269033139447591noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-77905612025080348542013-12-21T07:13:06.872+11:002013-12-21T07:13:06.872+11:00when carbon dioxide is said to be a well-mixed gre...<i>when carbon dioxide is said to be a well-mixed greenhouse gas, meaning all ocean basins should be warming?</i><br /><br />Holy cow. I'm not so smart, but smart enough to know that this is really stoopid.Nevenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15413215743703093876noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-82862508394057017312013-12-21T01:49:54.219+11:002013-12-21T01:49:54.219+11:00A paper of some relevance is Purkey and Johnson 20...A paper of some relevance is <a href="" rel="nofollow">Purkey and Johnson 2010</a>, <i>"Warming of Global Abyssal and Deep Southern Ocean Waters between the 1990s and 2000s: Contributions to Global Heat and Sea Level Rise Budgets"</i>.<br /><br />Warming below 4000 meters accounts for roughly 0.027 W/m^2 global radiative imbalance, that from 1000-4000 meters around Antarctica adds another 0.068 W/m^2. These temperature changes also account for a portion of sea level rise <i>(abyssal warming 0.053 mm/yr, deep warming around Antarctica another 0.093 mm/yr)</i>, with both heat content and sea level rise being statistically significant. <br /><br />Of some interest WRT this discussion is Fig. 8, wherein warming and rise are shown basin-by-basin. The majority of the warming contribution is occurring around Antarctica, with some basins showing showing small or even negative trends. Which, given the patterns of the thermohaline circulation, is not surprising. <br /><br />Tisdale, again, demonstrates that he really doesn't know much regarding the ocean temperatures he is so focused upon...<br /><br />KRAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com