tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post4813138909322265960..comments2024-03-25T05:30:23.847+11:00Comments on HotWhopper: The illogic of deniers: David Legates on the 971 vs 20 in a thousand abstractsSouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comBlogger26125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-71593924072303495852016-04-13T10:09:14.425+10:002016-04-13T10:09:14.425+10:00chrisd - windchasers forgot to add the closing (/s...chrisd - windchasers forgot to add the closing (/sarc) tag ;-)billnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-44916005481164619572016-04-13T01:27:59.424+10:002016-04-13T01:27:59.424+10:00Windchasers: It *doesn't* matter, ChrisD, beca...Windchasers: <i>It *doesn't* matter, ChrisD, because climate change is all just a lot of groupthink from a bunch of scientists who get paid to publish what politicians want. </i><br /><br />Windchasers, you can't produce even the tiniest shred of evidence that this is actually true. I understand that it's taken as gospel by the 'skeptic' community (talk about groupthink!), but it's simply assertion. Unless you can <i>show</i> that no one can publish dissenting papers--and you can't--it's meaningless.<br /><br />What's your explanation for the eight years of Bush the Lesser? Global warming was the last thing the Bush government wanted to hear about. Hell, they had political operatives doctoring NASA reports to minimize their conclusions. So, by your theory, the scientists should have been churning out dissenting papers by the trainload. But that didn't happen. The volume of supporting research just kept increasing. Why?<br /><br /><i>consensus matters because there's no consensus, so we know that plucky independent scientists are being suppressed</i><br /><br />This is completely circular. It makes no sense whatsoever.<br /><br /><i>And of course, science isn't "done by consensus".</i><br /><br />That's exactly what I said. You're simply repeating, in slightly different language, the same straw man my comment was about.<br /><br /><i>The consensus follows collection of the scientific evidence, not the other way around. </i><br /><br />Which is precisely what has happened, no matter how desperately you want to deny it.chrisdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10494573891618930891noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-35340831374721386822016-04-12T09:21:40.272+10:002016-04-12T09:21:40.272+10:00I've asked several times but no-one has been a...I've asked several times but no-one has been able to produce evidence from any study that "skeptics" can't get their papers published or can't get grant funding. Getting a paper published is difficult enough for any scientists and getting grants approved is never a slam dunk.<br /><br />It's convenient to whine about skeptics not getting their fair share of air time in professional circles, but I suspect it is really an urban myth.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12083190014669867976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-25594597652312517712016-04-12T08:41:22.856+10:002016-04-12T08:41:22.856+10:00And of course, science isn't "done by con...And of course, science isn't "done by consensus". The consensus follows collection of the scientific evidence, not the other way around. <br />Windchasershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11554275410734284781noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-88097574843804268292016-04-12T06:45:54.726+10:002016-04-12T06:45:54.726+10:00A senior faculty who is an associate professor? A...A senior faculty who is an associate professor? At my school we call those "stuck associates" -- people who got tenure but then never advanced.<br /><br />At this point his way forward is to do some first-rate work -- maybe even a paper that casts legitimate doubt on the global warming consensus! <br /><br />Of course, this argument may be difficult to formulate.<br /><br />Or, more likely, impossible.palindromnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-74030741277732423002016-04-12T05:27:09.405+10:002016-04-12T05:27:09.405+10:00As any perceptual psychologist can tell you black ...As any perceptual psychologist can tell you black and white are the same thing.<br /><br />https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Checker_shadow_illusionjgnfldnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-58212184241241236742016-04-12T04:40:53.024+10:002016-04-12T04:40:53.024+10:00The interpretation of Quantum mechanics amongst re...The interpretation of Quantum mechanics amongst researchers has also been surveyed to determine the extent of any consensus ( see last para of History section <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minority_interpretations_of_quantum_mechanics" rel="nofollow">here</a> ) But according to climate change deniers I've showed this to, it doesn't count as "doing science by consensus" because the survey didn't find a consensus ! Good job the pollsters knew what result they would find before they conducted their poll, huh ? swimbouyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06547487222722405878noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-17092529765218173462016-04-12T04:31:53.310+10:002016-04-12T04:31:53.310+10:00Also it is worth noting no scientific theory comes...Also it is worth noting no scientific theory comes out fully formed <br /><br />They change and get refined as more/better data become available <br /><br />Darwin did not get everything right regarding evolution by natural selection - indeed for obvious reasons he had no knowledge of DNA <br /><br />But that does not detract from the central validity of the theory Tadaaahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07736188830660481871noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-65107156834209020492016-04-12T04:07:44.348+10:002016-04-12T04:07:44.348+10:00When I was starting, in lets say 1990, Legates was...When I was starting, in lets say 1990, Legates was one of the names you knew; in fact, somewhat in the way you knew Curry's name. In his case, mostly because of the Legates and Willmott surface air temperature climatology (http://research.jisao.washington.edu/data_sets/legates/). Actually, now I look, I can't recall if it ws this or the precip (http://research.jisao.washington.edu/legates_msu/) that people used. Nowadays, I think, its a nothing, because we have the reanalyses and so on; but in those days stuff like that was rarer, so something to compare to your GCMs was useful. If you look, he has a couple of papers with > 1000 cites. His early papers are sane (e.g. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0442(1989)002%3C0459:SCCIBD%3E2.0.CO;2). I don't know when he became a nutter.William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-77555871075585964392016-04-12T03:34:27.765+10:002016-04-12T03:34:27.765+10:00I always find it amusing that deniers complain abo...I always find it amusing that deniers complain about scientists and government funding for scientific research -- <br /><br />On the internet.<br /><br />Using a computer.<br /><br />One cannot make up a more efficiently self-negating argument.D.C.Pettersonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05078422582348328238noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-59802197569478820012016-04-12T03:17:26.997+10:002016-04-12T03:17:26.997+10:00It *doesn't* matter, ChrisD, because climate c...It *doesn't* matter, ChrisD, because climate change is all just a lot of groupthink from a bunch of scientists who get paid to publish what politicians want. <br /><br />And at the same time, consensus matters because there's no consensus, so we know that plucky independent scientists are being suppressed, and they can never publish in the scientific literature except all those times that they can. Windchasershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11554275410734284781noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-88590766329665402642016-04-12T02:55:48.096+10:002016-04-12T02:55:48.096+10:00As a matter of no particular interest, his overall...As a matter of no particular interest, his overall rating by students at ratemyprofessors.com is 3.6 out of 5, which is a C+. chrisdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10494573891618930891noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-82935266966780203132016-04-12T02:50:47.953+10:002016-04-12T02:50:47.953+10:00Moreover, consensus and votes have no place in sci...<i>Moreover, consensus and votes have no place in science. History is littered with theories that were long denied by “consensus” science and politics: plate tectonics, germ theory of disease, a geocentric universe. They all underscore how wrong consensus can be.</i><br /><br />This is a standard 'skeptic' strawman. I've seen it a million times.<br /><br />No one has ever said that consensus is proof of correctness. That's not the point at all. The point is that it borders on insanity to ignore an overwhelming consensus of experts and simply <i>hope</i> that they're all wrong.<br /><br />A secondary reason to document the consensus is to counter the common 'skeptic' argument that there is significant disagreement within the scientific community. The studies on consensus show beyond any reasonable dispute that this is simply false.<br /><br />It's interesting though, that the 'skeptics' espouse two contradictory views (as they so often do). Half of them say we shouldn't do anything because there's no consensus, and the other half say that consensus doesn't matter. Either it matters or it doesn't. chrisdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10494573891618930891noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-997245498816587052016-04-12T00:33:45.280+10:002016-04-12T00:33:45.280+10:00Legates teaches undergraduates at the University o...Legates teaches undergraduates at the University of Delaware although his course load appears to be light: Geography 101 in Fall 2015 and 11 students in Environmental Statistics in Winter 2016. He does not appear to have any graduate students.<br /><br />According to Google Scholar he has co-authored 9 papers since 2013... some of these appear to be of marginal quality published in third-rate journals, but the university would be unlikely to consider this when evaluating his performance as a tenured associate professor.Magmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-9194320166823425522016-04-11T23:03:26.184+10:002016-04-11T23:03:26.184+10:00yes I was going to make that point
Legates + Corn...yes I was going to make that point<br /><br />Legates + Cornwall Alliance = Evolution denial <br /><br />why anyone takes these clowns seriously when they preach rubbish regarding "evidence" is totally beyond me Tadaaahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07736188830660481871noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-31437672752725870942016-04-11T22:15:09.713+10:002016-04-11T22:15:09.713+10:00In much of Europe, electricity prices have risen 5...<em>In much of Europe, electricity prices have risen 50% or more over the past decade, leaving many unable to afford proper wintertime heat</em><br /><br />Leaving aside the fact that "much of Europe" is pretty ill-defined, let's look at Germany, since they're a poster country for the horrible price increases caused by renewable power. <br /><br />Yes, between 2001 and 2011, electricity prices did rise by about 50%. Interestingly, that doesn't seem to be the big worry among the investing class at the moment: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-25/why-do-germany-s-electricity-prices-keep-falling-Johnny Vectorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00443676804460912826noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-60223915240602274382016-04-11T21:59:18.416+10:002016-04-11T21:59:18.416+10:00Apologies he is there at no 17.Apologies he is there at no 17.thefordprefecthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07210786222021457913noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-20551425433823519142016-04-11T21:50:55.234+10:002016-04-11T21:50:55.234+10:00He was (seems to be missing in latest list of cour...He was (seems to be missing in latest list of course a signatory of the declaration from Cornwall alliance:<br />http://www.cornwallalliance.org/2009/05/01/evangelical-declaration-on-global-warming/<br /><br /><br />here are some signatories they highlight <br /><br />Dr. Roy W. Spencer (Principal Research Scientist in Climatology, University of Alabama, Huntsville, <br />Dr. Joseph D’Aleo (Executive Director and Certified Meteorologist, Icecap <br />Dr. David Legates (Associate Professor of Climatology, University of Delaware <br />Dr. Ross McKitrick (Associate Professor of Economics, University of Guelph, Ontario, Canada,<br />Dr. Cornelis van Kooten (Professor of Economics and Research Chair in Environmental Studies and Climate, University of Victoria, British Columbia, Canada, Expert Reviewer, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)<br />Dr. Kenneth W. Chilton (Founder and Emeritus Director, Institute for the Study of Economics and the Environment, Lindenwood College); <br /><br /> Contibuting Writers.<br /> :Rev. Richard S. Courtney, Expert Reviewer, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and Methodist Preacher, Cornwall, UK<br /> G. Cornelis van Kooten, Ph.D., Professor of Economics and Research Chari in Environmental Studies and Climate, University of Victoria, BC, Canada<br /><br /><br /> Advisory board<br /> James A. Wanliss, Ph.D., Associate Professor of Physics, Presbyterian College, Clinton, SCthefordprefecthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07210786222021457913noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-68973126543765141182016-04-11T20:55:46.878+10:002016-04-11T20:55:46.878+10:00Thanks Bob. A senior's moment. I had Legates o...Thanks Bob. A senior's moment. I had Legates on the brain :(Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-69444848188438176812016-04-11T20:51:37.284+10:002016-04-11T20:51:37.284+10:00About 2,000 full papers were rated by the scientis...About 2,000 full papers were rated by the scientists who wrote them, and the data were released in 2013:<br />http://www.skepticalscience.com/Consensus-Project-self-rating-data-now-available.html<br /><br />Critics have been repeatedly pointed towards these data. <br /><br />They show (1) that the 97 % is robust, according to the scientists who wrote the papers, and (2) Cook's abstract rating method is conservative and underestimates the strength of endorsement by full papers. <br /><br />For example, of the 2,136 ratings released there, the Cook ratings said that 1,339 abstracts did not discuss the cause. According to the authors though, 757 of those papers did discuss cause (perhaps in the non-abstract text). Cook et al. missed 20 rejection papers here, but also 737 endorsements. The consensus among them was 97.4 %. <br /><br />Critics like Legates imply that there's no consensus based on abstracts that don't clearly discuss the cause. Firstly, the scientists who wrote the papers with those abstracts report a 97 % consensus among full papers. And secondly this is silly. Look at a bunch of maths abstracts and see how many say something like "evidence shows that 1+1=2". Legates' logic means rejecting consensus on things like plate tectonics or 1+1=2.<br /><br />Finally, Cook et al. underestimated the strength of the endorsements. Among the 2,000-odd full paper ratings by the scientists who wrote the papers, more than 200 were "explicit endorsement with quantification", the strongest possible endorsement of the consensus. This is more than the total number of abstracts given that rating among the sample of 11,944.MarkRhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07010058907167894548noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-9347019641569090212016-04-11T20:10:49.582+10:002016-04-11T20:10:49.582+10:00"David provides no evidence that higher elect..."David provides no evidence that higher electricity prices have caused "thousands" to die. Nor does he mention the 70,000 who died in European heat waves this century."<br /><br />A far, far bigger killer than all of this is the air pollution caused by burning fossil fuels. That kills tens of thousands of UK citizens every year.Millicentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-49838864963554323192016-04-11T19:15:26.173+10:002016-04-11T19:15:26.173+10:00Your reference to the article 'Summer heat wav...Your reference to the article 'Summer heat wave arrives in Europe' - is the attribution incorrect? The header says 'Tom di Liberto'.Bob Turnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13243166437663983990noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-15090796824871292512016-04-11T18:03:43.616+10:002016-04-11T18:03:43.616+10:00Alright - you can answer the questions here, with ...Alright - you can <a href="https://docs.google.com/forms/d/15fMk90Jyy3X7y3DsFmkq7cf_MgQlRkOwgLIeMqKSERQ/viewform" rel="nofollow">answer the questions here</a>, with some variations :)Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-72423410977039793832016-04-11T17:50:47.212+10:002016-04-11T17:50:47.212+10:00Ha ha. Evidence that it always pays to pilot surve...Ha ha. Evidence that it always pays to pilot surveys :)Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-47316453795324878782016-04-11T17:27:43.321+10:002016-04-11T17:27:43.321+10:00And mottled is not a colour ...And mottled is not a colour ...Jammy Dodgerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08360437479098314946noreply@blogger.com