tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post3241252119443139199..comments2024-02-12T15:25:44.028+11:00Comments on HotWhopper: Antarctic ice - growing or shrinking? NASA vs Princeton and Leeds etcSouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comBlogger43125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-40646496599899411182015-11-04T21:34:52.749+11:002015-11-04T21:34:52.749+11:00"Utter nonsense. Scientists know exactly what..."Utter nonsense. Scientists know exactly what is causing sea level rise. Groundwater mining."<br /><br />From one Steve Godtard of Really Sciency which references the 1st cited paper.<br /><br />The other paper cited above is mentioned at WUWT, as well as the Wada paper, again wrt groundwater.extraction. Also can't forget about silting (e. g. erosion which must have only started recently).<br /><br />I'm kind of thinking they forgot about recent dam building though. Don't know why.Everett F Sargenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00201577558036010680noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-5737692650137761822015-11-04T21:32:45.705+11:002015-11-04T21:32:45.705+11:00This comment has been removed by the author.Everett F Sargenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00201577558036010680noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-5107546586953309862015-11-04T04:59:27.727+11:002015-11-04T04:59:27.727+11:00here we take the next step and simulate the long-t...<b>here we take the next step and simulate the long-term evolution of the whole West Antarctic Ice Sheet</b><br /><br />Aha! There's the new knowledge (or 'know leg' as my phone preferred). Thanks!numerobisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-72859193932924873942015-11-04T03:33:13.869+11:002015-11-04T03:33:13.869+11:00From other papers that looks to be an overestimate...From other papers that looks to be an overestimate. (See my comment above. Still not inconsequential at around 0.4 mm/year.)Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-42544437112556278812015-11-04T03:18:34.749+11:002015-11-04T03:18:34.749+11:00Shockingly, Watts doesn't include his standard...Shockingly, Watts doesn't include his standard "Claim:" in front of the headline on this: <br /><br /><i>"Ooops! New NASA study: Antarctica isn’t losing ice mass after all!"</i><br /><br />"Claim:" has been replaced by "Oops!". Apparently <i>this</i> study is Not To Be Trifled With. Only the ones that yield results he doesn't like get the "Claim:" rubber stamp.chrisdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10494573891618930891noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-63177476935093623372015-11-04T03:05:18.590+11:002015-11-04T03:05:18.590+11:00Its a shock to me that groundwater extraction coul...Its a shock to me that groundwater extraction could be having so large an effect as 0.77mm: so for once I have learnt something from a climate change denier.<br /><br />But I am surprised that Marke has the time to post here. It is a fairly frequent denier meme that the world possesses an infinite capacity to soak up whatever damage humanity inflicts upon it. Or that God will not allow us to harm his 'perfect' creation. So I'd have thought he would have his hands full correcting his fellow deniers on this point.Millicentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-62855381613195884282015-11-04T02:01:47.588+11:002015-11-04T02:01:47.588+11:00The press release I linked to is a bit confusing I...The press release I linked to is a bit confusing I suppose because Zwally says there's been a decline in snowfall in recent years..<br /><br />http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/10/151030220523.htm<br /><br />In the paper they say that the increase in mass in much of east Antarctica is from reduced ice flow rather than increased snowfall..<br /><br />But leaving that aside, to answer your question, if ice is building up in the interior then if no ice melted (and leaving aside groundwater elsewhere) it would lead to a decline in sea level. The snow mainly comes from water in the ocean, not from evaporation of solid water on Antarctica. There's some loss through sublimation (going from solid water to water vapour) but AFAIK most comes from the atmosphere bringing water from the ocean.<br /><br />So for sea level to rise from changes in Antarctica, you need an overall decrease in ice mass (which is what most other papers show)..Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-90314114872482027042015-11-04T01:26:47.407+11:002015-11-04T01:26:47.407+11:00Sou -
What's the direct link between ice accu...Sou -<br /><br />What's the direct link between ice accumulation and sea level decrease?<br /><br />Couldn't ice be accumulating (say from increased precipitation due to increased humidity) in one area (say the interior - with no direct impact of reducing sea level) even as ice is melting in others (increasing sea level)? What is the mechanism by which ice mass increases? Above, it says that accumulation is snowfall driven.Joshuahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08058404311263880189noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-56004794586448436242015-11-04T00:28:48.066+11:002015-11-04T00:28:48.066+11:00Noooo!Noooo!cRR Kampenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07571285063752477448noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-51378179597620092372015-11-04T00:13:23.162+11:002015-11-04T00:13:23.162+11:00It's in the big EMI (Electromagnetic Interfere...It's in the big EMI (Electromagnetic Interference) test chamber at Goddard now, so I am inclined to believe the current launch date. (Modulo a couple months. spacecraft are difficult beasts, especially when high power lasers are involved.)Johnny Vectorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00443676804460912826noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-84106050561045779932015-11-03T21:46:50.547+11:002015-11-03T21:46:50.547+11:00Surely all this reveals is that snowfall has incre...Surely all this reveals is that snowfall has increased in some areas of Antartica otherwise where does this increase in ice mass come from? Increasing snowfall may just be another symptom of climate change so using this as any sort of argument against the reality of global warming is clutching at straws.Phttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14402320216925301686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-80188542982696900192015-11-03T20:21:52.445+11:002015-11-03T20:21:52.445+11:00Marke, that's good, but it's something of ...Marke, that's good, but it's something of a red herring. Groundwater depletion does add to sea level (and these days is taken into account in reconciliing the sea level budget). Estimating the contribution is not straightforward. A <a href="https://www.uni-frankfurt.de/46222973/Taylor_Scanlon_Doell_et_al_2013_groundwater_and_climate.pdf" rel="nofollow">review paper in Nature Climate Change</a> published subsequently (still in 2012) discusses this aspect in some detail, and indicates the contribution is more likely 0.40 ± 0.11 mm/year (from 2001-2008). It says in part:<br /><br /><i>The different estimates of global groundwater depletion produce variable estimates of its current contribution to SLR (34% or 0.57 ± 0.09 mm yr−1 versus 23% or 0.4 ± 0.1 mm yr−1). Direct observations of groundwater depletion continue to be hampered by a dearth of ground-based observations, which not only limits our understanding of localized groundwater storage changes but also our ability to constrain evidence from GRACE satellite observations at larger scales (≥150,000 km2).</i><br /><br />For an easier read, there's <a href="http://arstechnica.com/science/2012/06/groundwater-responsible-for-nearly-half-of-sea-level-rise/" rel="nofollow">an article by Scott K. Johnson</a> at Ars Technica - which discusses the different studies and how you also have to allow for dams etc.<br /><br />The latest <a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/" rel="nofollow">IPCC report</a> says:<br /><br /><i>Model-based estimates of climate-related changes in water storage on land (as snow cover, surface water, soil moisture and ground water) do not show significant long-term contributions to sea level change for recent decades. However, human-induced changes (reservoir impoundment and groundwater depletion) have each contributed at least several tenths of mm yr–1 to sea level change. Reservoir impoundment exceeded groundwater depletion for the majority of the 20th century but the rate of groundwater depletion has increased and now exceeds the rate of impoundment. Their combined net contribution for the 20th century is estimated to be small. {13.3}</i><br /><br />Regardless of this, Antarctica is going to add a whole heap more to sea level in the future.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-77085882519197500772015-11-03T19:25:22.772+11:002015-11-03T19:25:22.772+11:00Thank you for your link - very interesting and dem...Thank you for your link - very interesting and demonstrates how current info being discussed, from the NASA dead satellite, is so misleading.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-9635899021722116802015-11-03T19:08:28.627+11:002015-11-03T19:08:28.627+11:00..where is the extra water coming from?:
....a te.....where is the extra water coming from?:<br /><br />....a team of Dutch scientists led by hydrologist Yoshihide Wada, a Ph.D. researcher at Utrecht University:<br /><br /><i>... he and his colleagues have found, groundwater depletion is adding about 0.6 millimeters per year (about one-fortieth of an inch) to the Earth's sea level.</i><br /><br />http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2012/05/120531-groundwater-depletion-may-accelerate-sea-level-rise/<br /><br />Nature Geoscience | Letter Model estimates of sea-level change due to anthropogenic impacts on terrestrial water storage.<br />Yadu N. Pokhrel, <br /><br /><i>We find that, together, unsustainable groundwater use, artificial reservoir water impoundment, climate-driven changes in terrestrial water storage and the loss of water from closed basins have contributed a sea-level rise of about 0.77 mm yr−1 between 1961 and 2003, about 42% of the observed sea-level rise. We note that, of these components, the unsustainable use of groundwater represents the largest contribution.</i><br /><br />http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v5/n6/full/ngeo1476.html<br />markehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06387629308058823374noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-50324492081803116962015-11-03T18:16:30.384+11:002015-11-03T18:16:30.384+11:00The quote our friend provides is an example of how...The quote our friend provides is an example of how Anthony Watts either struggles to understand the English language or else deliberately misrepresents scientists.<br /><br />But deniers do this, are corrected, and yet continue to make the same 'mistake' with the exact same material. Its one of those days when the influence of all that fossil fuel money in deniers' trousers is obvious.<br /><br />So is Cam merely a dupe who has been misinformed by others, or is he himself a liar? Let's see how he reacts to being put straight. Will he apologise?Millicentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-72534331938125923172015-11-03T17:07:49.088+11:002015-11-03T17:07:49.088+11:00No, Joshua. It means what it says. The Zwally pape...No, Joshua. It means what it says. The Zwally paper indicates that ice is accumulating on Antarctica, which if nothing else contributed, would mean that sea level would fall by around 0,23 mm a year.<br /><br />(As described above, his paper is the odd one out. Other scientists have found that ice mass is falling in Antarctica, which would be contributing to the rise in sea level.)Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-78362748409194318872015-11-03T16:01:47.801+11:002015-11-03T16:01:47.801+11:00Sou -
==> ...So if Antarctica is reducing sea...Sou -<br /><br />==> ...So if Antarctica is reducing sea level by 0.23 mm a year, and sea level is rising by at least 3.3 mm a year, then where is the extra water coming from?"<br /><br />Could you explain that *reducing* part? Did you mean increasing?<br />Joshuahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08058404311263880189noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-31038262365083713212015-11-03T14:36:47.556+11:002015-11-03T14:36:47.556+11:00It's about a new PNAS paper:
The Antarctic Ic...It's about <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2015/10/28/1512482112" rel="nofollow">a new PNAS paper</a>:<br /><br />The Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing mass at an accelerating rate, and playing a more important role in terms of global sea-level rise. The Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica has most likely been destabilized. Although previous numerical modeling studies examined the short-term future evolution of this region, <b>here we take the next step and simulate the long-term evolution of the whole West Antarctic Ice Sheet.</b> Our results show that if the Amundsen Sea sector is destabilized, then the entire marine ice sheet will discharge into the ocean, causing a global sea-level rise of about 3 m. We thus might be witnessing the beginning of a period of self-sustained ice discharge from West Antarctica that requires long-term global adaptation of coastal protection.<br /><br />----<br /><br />There was <a href="http://www.nature.com/articles/nature15706.epdf?referrer_access_token=ib9vksQJZoayQ9Im4Rr5R9RgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0NEY6ZGfkFQrQj5hn6WAAxQ-b4htB8oULOLAe-IXgn0L4eg6QH-arg_RVk8q7o-_ZHjfwzFfcjkygCo8FonLTNBH3tm8SkJcGGrMW01ZYS_H697IUVFbH2PVAfk-1SjSyLgyjk6guJfBEDKMoqJMAh6bFr9ad0Pifahmz6gJpubMYAx9bDFqFrnd4HWChuU_3c%3D&tracking_referrer=www.abc.net.au" rel="nofollow">another paper </a>a couple of weeks ago, in Nature, where scientists modeled Antarctic ice loss under different emissions pathways. From the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-10-15/antarctic-ice-shelf-sea-level-rise-warning/6853780" rel="nofollow">ABC article</a> about it:<br /><br />---<br /><br />The model showed that Antarctic ice would remain "incredibly stable" over 5,000 years at the lowest IPCC emission scenario, but ice shelves would collapse under all the other scenarios.<br /><br />"In those higher concentration pathways we destabilise those ice shelves," said Dr Fogwill.<br /><br />Collapse of the ice shelves under such scenarios would lead to Antarctic ice sheets contributing around 40 centimetres rather than 4 centimetres to sea level by 2100, said Dr Fogwill.<br /><br />But, he said, it would not be until 2300 that the Antarctic ice melt rate would peak. By that stage the not-so-frozen continent would be contributing as much as 3 metres to sea level rise.<br /><br />---Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-5319786164945498242015-11-03T14:08:55.316+11:002015-11-03T14:08:55.316+11:00They really need to name some part of Antarctica &...They really need to name some part of Antarctica "Dunning-Kruger Land". Rattus Norvegicushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03449457204330125792noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-80446310620678889432015-11-03T13:29:43.317+11:002015-11-03T13:29:43.317+11:00From press reports I can't figure out what'...From press reports I can't figure out what's new in this article. We heard this last year, that WAIS was going down -- it kind of catapulted Rignot to the limelight as an articulate popularizer (on top of being a good scientist). What new know leg does this article provide?numerobisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-59203025067484177882015-11-03T12:53:03.334+11:002015-11-03T12:53:03.334+11:00Thnx. Fixed spelling.Thnx. Fixed spelling.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-16861939101521586572015-11-03T12:33:19.177+11:002015-11-03T12:33:19.177+11:00That should be Dronning Maud Land, not Droning Mau...That should be Dronning Maud Land, not Droning Maud, for those who are wondering who the hell she was.Cugelnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-50043378044534738732015-11-03T12:21:46.722+11:002015-11-03T12:21:46.722+11:00Basically, Zwally never said that the current rate...Basically, Zwally never said that the current rate would or should continue. It wasn't a prediction, just a "hey, this is kinda interesting" sort of topic. Windchasershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11554275410734284781noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-41879728977880283432015-11-03T12:08:31.495+11:002015-11-03T12:08:31.495+11:00@Cam: You even cited the important words "At ...@Cam: You even cited the important words "At this rate". Zwally was correct in what he said: the loss from 2006 to 2007, *if maintained*,would have led to complete loss by 2012. But Zwally (and Serreze) did not say that the ice *would* be gone. Watts and Co don't like to use exact quotes.PLnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-47709251626563926462015-11-03T11:54:26.962+11:002015-11-03T11:54:26.962+11:00The Washington Post adds this to the mix:
https:/...The Washington Post adds this to the mix:<br /><br />https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/11/02/scientists-confirm-their-fears-about-west-antarctica-that-its-inherently-unstable/?hpid=hp_hp-more-top-stories_ee-antarctica-425pm%3Ahomepage%2FstoryTokodavenoreply@blogger.com