tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post3018959836088984161..comments2024-02-12T15:25:44.028+11:00Comments on HotWhopper: 101 conspiracy theories about troposphere temperature: the RSS love affair is overSouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comBlogger56125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-59081206472936508952016-03-09T01:46:20.990+11:002016-03-09T01:46:20.990+11:00From the references on Mears' post:
"Uni...From the references on Mears' post:<br /><br />"University of Alabama, Huntsville Data: No relevant paper has been published."<br /><br />Subtle :DMartinMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12378483250151121375noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-24442627624999046722016-03-09T01:45:04.157+11:002016-03-09T01:45:04.157+11:00Thanks, MartinM. Yes, odd if one is looking to pre...Thanks, MartinM. Yes, odd if one is looking to present valid information. No at all odd if one is looking to rile up one's conspiracy theory believing blog visitors.Raynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-70800070975102753712016-03-09T01:20:41.536+11:002016-03-09T01:20:41.536+11:00Carl Mears has written a blog article about the ne...Carl Mears has written <a href="http://www.remss.com/blog/RSS-TMT-updated" rel="nofollow">a blog article</a> about the new paper, for anyone not yet able to access it. (I'm told the paper will be open access at some stage, not sure when.)<br /><br />His article addresses some of the questions people may have had. (I've added <a href="http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2016/03/101-conspiracy-theories-about.html#references" rel="nofollow">a link to the references</a> under the article as well.)Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-36085259896635191132016-03-08T11:11:13.350+11:002016-03-08T11:11:13.350+11:00Goddard's just lying. Here's a fair compar...Goddard's just lying. Here's a <a href="http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v124/MartinM/angell.png~original" rel="nofollow">fair comparison</a> between the 1977 graph, and the same up-to-date radiosonde data he linked. Odd that he didn't bother to plot them together, since he had access to both.MartinMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12378483250151121375noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-12323643939733121022016-03-08T08:05:37.966+11:002016-03-08T08:05:37.966+11:00I have seen this link repeatedly posted today http...I have seen this link repeatedly posted today http://realclimatescience.com/2016/03/noaa-radiosonde-data-shows-no-warming-for-58-years/. "Steve Goddard" thinks that NOAA's balloon data shows no warming for 58 years.Raynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-29343220297817724712016-03-07T01:42:35.837+11:002016-03-07T01:42:35.837+11:00Spencer's reply looks pretty weak to me. Radio...Spencer's reply looks pretty weak to me. Radiosonde data isn't particularly close to global coverage, and the uneven sampling makes a simplistic comparison to global products less than useful. The correct comparison is to a version of the satellite records subsampled to match the radiosonde coverage. When I subsample RSS TMT v4.0 and UAH v6.0b5 to match HadAT, RAOBCORE and RICH coverage, RSS is a much better fit to each than is UAH, both in terms of r^2 and, more importantly, the long-term trend.MartinMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12378483250151121375noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-77211774335047050212016-03-06T21:30:02.216+11:002016-03-06T21:30:02.216+11:00Let it not be said that the UAH crew are completel...Let it not be said that the UAH crew are completely at sea about reality.Brandon R. Gateshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17031044715994785956noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-20221020518835712942016-03-06T00:01:30.766+11:002016-03-06T00:01:30.766+11:00Spencer has an update on his site that says: "...Spencer has an update on his site that says: "while the warming in RSS v4 versus UAH v6 might be as described above, when RSS v4 is compared to RSS v3.3, the increase in warming might be mostly due to their new diurnal cycle adjustment. In other words, the NOAA-14 calibration issue was also in their v3.3, but maybe it was obscured more by diurnal drift adjustment issues."Layzejhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11346550512734519728noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-6993658307387756162016-03-05T22:55:35.785+11:002016-03-05T22:55:35.785+11:00What I gather from all this is that even if the on...<i>What I gather from all this is that even if the onboard hot targets aren't being flukey on a single satellite, cross-satellite comparison may involve a little more art and less science than the average WHUTTer would normally stand for.</i><br /><br />Even Roy Spencer seems to agree - when he introduced version 6, he said:<br /><br /><i>One might ask, Why do the satellite data have to be adjusted at all? If we had satellite instruments that (1) had rock-stable calibration, (2) lasted for many decades without any channel failures, and (3) were carried on satellites whose orbits did not change over time, then the satellite data could be processed without adjustment. But none of these things are true.<br /><br />...<br /><br />All data adjustments required to correct for these changes involve decisions regarding methodology, and different methodologies will lead to somewhat different results. This is the unavoidable situation when dealing with less than perfect data.</i>Bellmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04872924578152375407noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-81849001482098238762016-03-05T20:17:38.954+11:002016-03-05T20:17:38.954+11:00There's no doubt that Watts and friends have p...There's no doubt that Watts and friends have pushed me to learn more. When I first started up over there, most were quite happy to have me and I thought many of my first discussions were quite good. Before your pal mpainter wore out his welcome at WUWT and took up residence at Spencer's, he trotted out his favourite question about the difference between the Sahara and the Amazon. Which, at the time, I thought was a perfectly reasonable and genuine question. Little did I know. Goodwill lasted about two rounds before he started quoting me out of context on other threads and declaring victory ... even going so far as to say that I "disgust" him. The man gives new meaning to the term, "gibbering twit".<br /><br />My relations with most of the other denizens soon followed suit. It long ago ceased being fun for me. Give it a few months, I might miss it. For now, whenever I chance to read a WUWT article, I have to resist the urge to hurt my computer.Brandon R. Gateshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17031044715994785956noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-68704499120987437592016-03-05T19:53:36.978+11:002016-03-05T19:53:36.978+11:00Sou,
Maybe there's an expert who'll drop ...Sou,<br /><br /><i>Maybe there's an expert who'll drop by to explain [calibration targets].</i><br /><br />Definitely not me, but this might be in reference to post-launch calibration which minimally involves two things:<br /><br />1) Taking a reading from deep space (the cold target)<br />2) Taking a reading from an onboard emitter (the hot target)<br /><br />Some suspect, <a href="http://rabett.blogspot.com/2016/01/hmm-thats-suspicious.html" rel="nofollow">certainly not Eli</a>, that the onboard hot targets degrade over time, or otherwise go wonky, thus introducing a bias in long-term trends.<br /><br />This has been looked at before. An older paper, <a href="http://images.remss.com/papers/rsspubs/Mears_Science_2005_Diurnal.pdf" rel="nofollow">Mears and Wentz (2005)</a> is freely available on the RSS website and has this to say:<br /><br /><i>The long-term behavior of a time series constructed from TLT is also dependent on the procedure used to merge the nine MSU satellites together into a single time series, in particular on the values of the parameters ("target factors") used to empirically remove the spurious dependence of the instrument calibration on the temperature of the hot calibration target (5,7,15) (SOM text). For the results presented below, we used exactly the same merging procedure and target factors (but different offsets) as we used when producing our results for MSU2 (26).</i><br /><br />What I gather from all this is that even if the onboard hot targets aren't being flukey on a single satellite, cross-satellite comparison may involve a little more art and less science than the average WHUTTer would normally stand for.Brandon R. Gateshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17031044715994785956noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-54339001713862189492016-03-05T19:41:17.821+11:002016-03-05T19:41:17.821+11:00I can go with that Brandon - I suppose I'm laz...I can go with that Brandon - I suppose I'm lazy in a way as I use their obvious ignorant confirmation bias to brush up my knowledge. It's the anger that drives me. Totally frustrating I know because the only vindication coming is when they don't reply. Usually you have to follow them down the "rabbit-hole" when they respond and that way lays madness. One should always deny ignorance however.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17614652735774985250noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-73316546070043337912016-03-05T19:10:27.193+11:002016-03-05T19:10:27.193+11:00How nice to be missed. :)
I've been giving WU...How nice to be missed. :)<br /><br />I've been giving WUWT a rest in favour of doing my own studies and writing them up on my own blog. It's really difficult (I increasingly appreciate the abilities of our host, Eli, ATTP, etc.), but I find it a more rewarding and educational challenge, and far less frustrating.Brandon R. Gateshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17031044715994785956noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-15385498113994924282016-03-05T15:33:59.952+11:002016-03-05T15:33:59.952+11:00Cadillac? How about Lincoln Continental?
Some of ...Cadillac? How about Lincoln Continental?<br /><br />Some of us still remember the big ole American junkyard road boats of the 70's and 80's.<br /><br />Word association ...<br /><br />Cadillac? Junk!<br />Gold Standard? Fixed!<br />MSU? Weather!<br /><br />Gold standard ...<br />https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_standard<br /><br />"A gold standard is a monetary system in which the standard economic unit of account is based on a FIXED quantity of gold."<br /><br />https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_standard#Bretton_Woods<br /><br />"The $42.22 par value was made official in September 1973, long after it had been abandoned in practice. In October 1976, the government officially changed the definition of the dollar; references to gold were removed from statutes. From this point, the international monetary system was made of pure fiat money."<br /><br />Ted Cruz ...<br />https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ted_Cruz<br /><br />"Rafael Edward "Ted" Cruz (born December 22, 1970) ... "<br /><br />Someone born in 1970 using the term "gold standard" seriously needs to pick up a history book or three, then shot himself in the head.<br /><br />Someone ELSE anecdotally mentioning Cadillac and NASA, in the same sentence even, ought to shot himself in the head.<br /><br />There, fixed that for me: Part Deux.Everett F Sargenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00201577558036010680noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-53309344060749145242016-03-05T15:24:06.187+11:002016-03-05T15:24:06.187+11:00This comment has been removed by the author.Everett F Sargenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00201577558036010680noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-83754256523746487002016-03-05T15:20:40.069+11:002016-03-05T15:20:40.069+11:00This comment has been removed by the author.Everett F Sargenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00201577558036010680noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-9907133727446899412016-03-05T12:44:30.269+11:002016-03-05T12:44:30.269+11:00That's part of the problem with my country cou...That's part of the problem with my country cousins, always skimping on the important stuff. The AMSU calibration may indeed have been to Cadillac standard, but it obviously needed to be Lamborghini.metzomagichttp://metzomagic.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-27279867029486177082016-03-05T12:25:29.014+11:002016-03-05T12:25:29.014+11:00Instead of give a good faith answer, and say there...Instead of give a good faith answer, and say there <i>are</i> other sat temp experts that can review....Nickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09537772941984056434noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-49315289695338749672016-03-05T12:05:05.980+11:002016-03-05T12:05:05.980+11:00Werner Brozek's comment is especially comical....Werner Brozek's comment is especially comical. He does't realize that RSS hasn't changed the data for the lower troposphere -- it's still version 3.3 -- and still the pause ends. <br /><br />Werner is all about numerology, not science.David Appellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03318269033139447591noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-63368415337449041012016-03-05T10:16:22.606+11:002016-03-05T10:16:22.606+11:00Henk, I'm thinking that UAH must have brought ...Henk, I'm thinking that UAH must have brought some satellites back into play with version 6.0 beta. In 2011 Roy Spencer also said that NOAA-15 had problems, but now says it doesn't.(I linked to the article about their v6.0beta up above. They process they use is quite different for v6.0 than v5.6 I believe.)<br /><br />Perhaps when their paper gets published we'll find out more about what they are currently doing.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-62629479390383202012016-03-05T09:55:37.029+11:002016-03-05T09:55:37.029+11:00I wondered where you had gone Harry (Brandon too)....I wondered where you had gone Harry (Brandon too).<br />I've been stirring up the pot there (Toneb)<br />and also at Spencer's place.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17614652735774985250noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-76428446724395121322016-03-05T09:50:02.406+11:002016-03-05T09:50:02.406+11:00Olof makes a good point. These articles by tamino:...Olof makes a good point. These articles by tamino:<br /><br />https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/01/15/drift/<br /><br />and Nick Stokes:<br /><br />http://moyhu.blogspot.ie/2016/01/satellite-temperature-readings-diverge.html<br /><br />show that the satellite data have clearly been diverging from the land-ocean data from ca. 2000.metzomagichttp://metzomagic.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-76436260938920381862016-03-05T09:34:52.482+11:002016-03-05T09:34:52.482+11:00I thought UAH didn't use AQUA after 2009, beca...I thought UAH didn't use AQUA after 2009, because of 'increasing noise' (see update 5 Oct 2012 in the Readme for version 5.6)? Henk Lankamphttp://wxgr.nlnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-57054838995790119732016-03-05T07:30:19.478+11:002016-03-05T07:30:19.478+11:00I think Roy Spencer and John Christy get quite anx...I think Roy Spencer and John Christy get quite anxious about their data being questioned. Given the fact that they've usually only made corrections after people have pointed out what's wrong, and only then very tardily, it's not a surprise. <br /><br />This time it's not just RSS, it's the Po-Chedley paper as well. The fact the latest UAH version lowered the trend, Roy and John must be worried that they'll look foolish again. They'll be concerned that they will have to make more changes that will bring it back in line with RSS (and surface trends). <br /><br />Even though they are both science deniers, their self esteem must be tied up in getting the record right, even if the results go against their religion.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-7072427033590146062016-03-05T07:22:56.650+11:002016-03-05T07:22:56.650+11:00I believe that Spencer&Christy are very stress...I believe that Spencer&Christy are very stressed right now. They have retreated to the "Cadillac calibration" defense line, There will probably be major difficulties to justify and publish their paper on UAH v6 beta, since its major strength, the similarity with RSS 3.3 TLT is gone now..Olof Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18244733455655978307noreply@blogger.com