tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post2475244121426852655..comments2024-03-25T05:30:23.847+11:00Comments on HotWhopper: William M Briggs is no futurist. About forecasts, scenarios and projectionsSouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comBlogger20125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-59702903936016966582014-08-14T01:59:37.882+10:002014-08-14T01:59:37.882+10:00As we are on about commas, can someone explain the...As we are on about commas, can someone explain the nonsensical comma often inserted nowadays between the subject and verb, e.g., a perpetrator would have titled this post "William M Briggs, is no futurist".<br /><br />Not as bad as "eats, shoots" because it doesn't change the meaning but why do it? TrueScepticnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-2771875079239625722014-08-12T17:23:01.410+10:002014-08-12T17:23:01.410+10:00The definition of projection according to the Aust...The definition of projection according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics<br /><br />"A projection indicates what the future changes in a population would be if the assumptions about future trends actually occur".<br /><br />http://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/a3121120.nsf/home/statistical+language+-+estimate+and+projection<br /><br /><br /><br />MikeHnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-71097472843050701672014-08-12T16:45:10.236+10:002014-08-12T16:45:10.236+10:00"Apparently It's easier to make projectio...<i>"Apparently It's easier to make projections, because when they turn out to be off they don't 'count' as a failure."</i><br /><br />That is some sort of logic failure. The difficulty or ease of making a projection is nothing to do with its results. The difficulty/ease of making a projection is purely in the construction. <br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Jammy Dodgernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-33105366094312360392014-08-12T15:21:24.132+10:002014-08-12T15:21:24.132+10:00"It's tough to make predictions, especial..."It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future."<br /><br />Apparently It's easier to make projections, because when they turn out to be off they don't 'count' as a failure.<br /><br />(snarky remarks being a specialty of mine ;)Schitzreehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17311863873634513259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-78695985448616105492014-08-12T13:28:19.817+10:002014-08-12T13:28:19.817+10:00This is not the serial comma (which is not only ac...This is not the serial comma (which is not only accepted but generally encouraged) , but comma-related and funny enough to post anyway:<br /><br />A panda walks into a bar. He orders a sandwich, eats it, then draws a gun and fires two shots in the air.<br /><br />"Why? Why are you behaving in this strange, un-panda-like fashion?" asks the confused waiter, as the panda walks towards the exit. The panda produces a badly punctuated wildlife manual and tosses it over his shoulder.<br /><br />"I'm a panda," he says, at the door. "Look it up."<br /><br />The waiter turns to the relevant entry and, sure enough, finds an explanation.<br /><br />"Panda. Large black-and-white bear-like mammal, native to China. Eats, shoots and leaves."<br /><br />- "Eats, Shoots & Leaves", Lynne Truss 2004jhoptoadnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-56304803878303627702014-08-12T05:36:00.155+10:002014-08-12T05:36:00.155+10:00"Perhaps it's time for a NAGU (Not the AG..."Perhaps it's time for a NAGU (Not the AGU) Conference?"<br /><br />didn't they just hold that in Vegas?<br />lignenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-34180576732312190142014-08-12T04:27:11.652+10:002014-08-12T04:27:11.652+10:00It's fairly common to transfer an abstract to ...It's fairly common to transfer an abstract to a more appropriate session but it's rare for an abstract to be rejected outright. Rejection is a big enough deal that it has to be decided at a high level, not by the convener (session chair). The guidelines for session conveners states:<br /><br />"Conveners do not have the authority to reject an abstract. If an abstract is not appropriate for the session, the convener may return the abstract to the appropriate Program Committee member, or recommend rejection of the abstract to the Program Committee."<br /><br />The Program Committee is the high-level body that supervises sessions for an entire discipline such as Atmospheric Sciences or Hydrology. So rejection is not something done routinely.<br />Raymond Arritthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04648714314250278353noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-29139375668506962332014-08-12T03:42:00.398+10:002014-08-12T03:42:00.398+10:00Rejection will serve his purposes better than acce...Rejection will serve his purposes better than acceptance, I suspect. Perhaps it's time for a NAGU (Not the AGU) Conference?Cugelnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-16842608224022669372014-08-12T03:41:33.674+10:002014-08-12T03:41:33.674+10:00I got into a discussion on Bishop-Hill about this ...I got into a discussion on Bishop-Hill about this (I will say my encounters there have been more pleasant than I was expecting. To be fair, I wasn't expecting much so I can't really tell if it's because people have been pleasant or just not as unpleasant as I was expecting :-) ). The discussion seemed to vary from making snarky remarks about projections being predictions that you don't believe, projections becoming predictions (which is kind right), and projections being the same as predictions for verification purposes. It was moderately interesting, partly because some seemed to understand what it meant, but couldn't quite bring themselves to admit it. I think that would make the IPCC projections seem more reasonable and that's probably unacceptable to some. And Then There's Physicshttp://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-42561994539484793022014-08-12T02:01:34.263+10:002014-08-12T02:01:34.263+10:00PL, I am afraid the feedback will be that hardly a...PL, I am afraid the feedback will be that hardly anyone looks at his poster.<br /><br />Of course, it could be fun if he is invited to give a presentation, and then people start asking questions (read: an expert points out he's wrong, confused, and whatnot). I don't think this will happen, though, since selecting abstracts for presentation is usually the task of the chairman, who would then be humiliated along with the presenter. I've seen it happen once at a conference. It was ugly.Marconoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-56850014570660050472014-08-12T01:17:27.248+10:002014-08-12T01:17:27.248+10:00Almost all AGU abstracts are "accepted";...Almost all AGU abstracts are "accepted"; there's always a "General" session for those that can't be categorized. This particular abstract is a mess, so it might not make the cut. On balance, I hope it does, and Briggs get the in-person feedback he deserves.PLnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-90928534475404498162014-08-12T01:16:25.176+10:002014-08-12T01:16:25.176+10:00We'll find out in October I guess:
http://fal...We'll find out in October I guess:<br /><br />http://fallmeeting.agu.org/2014/scientific-program/<br /><br />"Letters of notification regarding abstract submission acceptances will be distributed in early October 2014. The online program will also be posted in early October 2014."<br /><br />More submissions, including more from Cato Institute (Pat 'n Chip) arguing that "all the models are wrong".<br /><br />https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm14/preliminaryview.cgi/Session3166Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-75581557896339506602014-08-12T01:10:48.861+10:002014-08-12T01:10:48.861+10:00Thanks, Raymond. Was my forecast (1) incorrect or ...Thanks, Raymond. Was my forecast (1) incorrect or is there yet to be a vetting process to see which of the submitted abstracts are accepted? <br /><br />I wonder if his paper will be any better than the abstract or his blog article. We will have to wait till the end of the year to see if my forecast (2) is correct.<br /><br />William seems to be quite confused. And I don't get his climate forecast being sensitive to the price of oil analogy. It looks to me that he is the one who is mixing up forecasts and projections. Playing word games without understanding the subject matter. It's not the first time.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-34915961450392900442014-08-12T00:51:16.784+10:002014-08-12T00:51:16.784+10:00Mr. Briggs' AGU abstract is here:
https://agu...Mr. Briggs' AGU abstract is here:<br /><br />https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm14/preliminaryview.cgi/Paper25185<br />Raymond Arritthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04648714314250278353noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-88141301540224144272014-08-11T23:59:02.574+10:002014-08-11T23:59:02.574+10:00Tamino does not mince words. (Not like that nice S...Tamino does not mince words. (Not like that nice Sou person). A couple of quotes from that article to give a flavour of what he thinks of Briggs:<br /><br /><i>"Briggs is just playing word games in an infantile example of novice sophistry. He wants you to believe that since he has called them “predictions” and claimed the come from some evil “models” they can’t be trusted. It’s not the “tricky” part, it’s the “tricksy” part."</i><br /><br /><br /><br /><i>"Yes, folks, that’s it. Create a bogey-man made of straw, call it “uncertainty,” apply no analysis and no data, all just by waving of hands. That’s all he’s got."</i><br /><br />Jammy Dodgernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-88926861950774805912014-08-11T23:33:10.554+10:002014-08-11T23:33:10.554+10:00Yeah, William M. Briggs: Numerologist to the Stars...Yeah, <a href="http://tamino.wordpress.com/2012/02/01/william-m-briggs-numerologist-to-the-stars/" rel="nofollow">William M. Briggs: Numerologist to the Stars</a> was recently featured at tamino's place where he was basically making the same category error, referring to *historical* yearly Berkeley Earth global land temp anomalies as "predictions".<br /><br />Needless to say, appearing as the subject of one of tamino's posts is generally not a good thing. It usually winds up getting you ripped a new one.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-58802985908057957312014-08-11T21:52:28.117+10:002014-08-11T21:52:28.117+10:00Oh, I misread the text. You are correct Kevin. It ...Oh, I misread the text. You are correct Kevin. It is indeed permitted in a list of three or more. Can't say I like it as it was used though.<br /><br />I'll leave my comments for the pedants to weigh in further to argue the case of the comma, if they want to. Also it's a good demonstration that you shouldn't trust everything you read on a blog. Or everything you read at HotWhopper. At least, not without checking for yourself.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-532590279448921042014-08-11T21:43:15.794+10:002014-08-11T21:43:15.794+10:00I'm no grammarian or linguistic expert. I was ...I'm no grammarian or linguistic expert. I was merely being petty, adding some gratuitous snark :)<br /><br />I constantly lose marks because I often break up a sentence into two where I shouldn't, in the interest of readability. For example, the last sentence in my comment above should be a continuation of the previous one.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-78304724846783042142014-08-11T21:36:26.119+10:002014-08-11T21:36:26.119+10:00Except that isn't how it was used. The example...Except that isn't how it was used. The example given by Oxford Dictionaries was:<br /><br /><i>"These items are available in black and white, red and yellow, and blue and green."</i><br /><br />The comma was to make it clear the options were pairs of colours not single colours.<br /><br />If William had written: "There Is No Difference Between A Forecast and A Projection, An Estimate and A Scenario, or A Prediction and A Projection" it would have made about as much sense as his article. But at least he could have got away with using all the commas :)Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-59752683040420814222014-08-11T21:19:29.897+10:002014-08-11T21:19:29.897+10:00The serial or Oxford comma is not considered super...The serial or <a href="http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/us/words/what-is-the-oxford-comma" rel="nofollow">Oxford comma</a> is not considered superfluous in many style books.Kevin O'Neillhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06692943768484857724noreply@blogger.com