tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post1991837919461844725..comments2024-02-12T15:25:44.028+11:00Comments on HotWhopper: Tracking the 2015-16 El Niño, plus moreSouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-14037174220742959622016-02-10T10:50:31.443+11:002016-02-10T10:50:31.443+11:00Sou, I don't know if you've noticed, but v...Sou, I don't know if you've noticed, but version 5 is finally online.Bellmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04872924578152375407noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-83713514524503425672016-02-05T15:49:21.662+11:002016-02-05T15:49:21.662+11:00You are correct in that it casually tosses the &qu...You are correct in that it casually tosses the "no warming since 19XX" into the trash, but the text isn't from Watts. It's from a UAH release authored or approved by John Christy. (This particular one isn't on line yet.)Magmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-75623069279526329792016-02-05T09:23:33.919+11:002016-02-05T09:23:33.919+11:00Am I reading this right? The latest post on wuwt &...Am I reading this right? The latest post on wuwt "Warmest January in satellite record leads off 2016", has Watts saying<br /><br />"In addition to a major El Niño Pacific Ocean warming event, 2016 has 17 years of warming to raise the base temperature from which the El Niño begins."<br /><br />So no 18 year pause?Bellmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04872924578152375407noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-66007749593486552912016-02-05T00:21:31.819+11:002016-02-05T00:21:31.819+11:00In "some Monckton Pause" I include six m...In "some Monckton Pause" I include six months. I agree though that not every new Monckton Pause will be shorter for the next couple of years - perhaps one in every two or three.<br /><br />Cugelnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-9279607221635751932016-02-04T23:59:52.905+11:002016-02-04T23:59:52.905+11:00When I check for the Monckton Pause I exclude anyt...When I check for the Monckton Pause I exclude anything less than 5 years, but I don't think you correct to say there will always be some pause. Over the last 5 years trends increase exponentially as we approach the current high point - over 30 C a century measured over the last year.<br /><br />That said I was only using the old UAH data with the current month added, when the new version comes out we may well see a month or two that still have a slight negative trend.<br /><br />In any event, Monckton only uses RSS data, and that's only moved the start of the pause forward a month.Bellmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04872924578152375407noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-13207775223317411182016-02-04T12:09:35.602+11:002016-02-04T12:09:35.602+11:00As I understand it there'll always be a Monckt...As I understand it there'll always be a Monckton Pause of some length because the uncertainty of short periods (few data-points) is so great. The problem Chris Monckton has is that his Pauses are starting ever later and getting ever shorter.<br /><br />Seventeen years is commonly regarded as the absolute minimum period for finding a trend of the expected magnitude given the natural variation. I find it interesting that even a cherry-picked period crossing a PDO transition from warm to cool phase couldn't produce a Monckton Pause longer than eighteen and a half.Cugelnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-17196512311500659512016-02-04T07:13:15.803+11:002016-02-04T07:13:15.803+11:00It has easily exceeded the 2010 El Nino value.It has easily exceeded the 2010 El Nino value.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11552461190113661645noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-20368272652633534862016-02-04T06:44:46.636+11:002016-02-04T06:44:46.636+11:00RSS is also up +0.12 in January to 0.663RSS is also up +0.12 in January to 0.663Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12083190014669867976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-61483086198867274012016-02-03T02:24:51.853+11:002016-02-03T02:24:51.853+11:00By the way, when the data comes on line I'll c...By the way, when the data comes on line I'll compare the different versions of the perfect data set that is beyond reproach. The new one is the fifth try - and that's just with version 6.0 beta. There were obviously five other perfect versions, some with sub-perfect versions. E.g. Version 5 went up to 5.6. <br /><br />So much perfection, it's hard to keep track :)Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-45440225191764518762016-02-03T01:51:26.941+11:002016-02-03T01:51:26.941+11:00I think this January figure completely removes the...I think this January figure completely removes the pause from the UAH beta record (assuming there's no big surprise in version 5).<br /><br />That is, of course, if you use Christopher Monckton's ridiculous definition of the pause as the furthest back you can go and get a non-positive trend line. Bellmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04872924578152375407noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-87145368948263059622016-02-03T01:25:23.082+11:002016-02-03T01:25:23.082+11:00Ed Hawkins has a post about this over at Climate L...Ed Hawkins has a post about this over at <a href="http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/2016/expectations-for-2016-global-temperatures/" rel="nofollow">Climate Lab Book</a>.<br /><br />Many people have compared 2015 to the El Nino year of 1998, which still has the record in the satellite series. But from an ENSO perspective, 2015 should be compared to 1997 (as in Sou's graphs above). 2016 should be compared to 1998. I think there is a fairly big chance that 2016 will beat 1998.Lars Karlssonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06158469980966810882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-8383751873916958192016-02-03T01:22:19.766+11:002016-02-03T01:22:19.766+11:00The No warming for 18 years meme is about to crash...The No warming for 18 years meme is about to crash into reality, methinks :-)<br /><br />The NOAA data shows the NINO 3.4 region index at 2.3C which is the same as 1997/98.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11552461190113661645noreply@blogger.com