It's the snow not the cold, Eric Worrall

Eric Worrall takes over the reins of WUWT when Anthony is away, which has been a lot lately. Today he's shown that he doesn't understand the first thing about climate change. He wrote a short article with the headline: "If it is Hot, it is Climate, if it is Cold, its Climate".

What he's talking about is the stormy weather that hit the USA in the past few days, with crippling dumps of snow. As I speculated earlier, this was most probably fueled by the anomalously warm sea as seen in this image from NOAA. :

Where Eric went wrong was that he thought that people were arguing that the AGW influence on the storm was in the cold. He's wrong. It gets cold in winter and, in any case, as far as I know it wasn't especially cold for the season. (I don't think temperature was mentioned in this timeline of the blizzard.) Eric's as bad as Anthony Watts at not understanding stuff he posts. He wrote:

If it is Hot, it is Climate, if it is Cold, its Climate 

Remember all the recent press about the mild winter, how the bears were waking up early, flowers blooming in December, all a sign of the coming global warming apocalypse?

Now that winter has turned cold and snowy, this is also being seen in some quarters, as irrefutable proof of our unnatural tampering with the balance of nature.

It was the amount of snowfall that is likely to have been fueled by warm seas (compared to the long term average), which is the part that is probably affected by human activities. Eric has no excuse for getting it wrong. If he'd read the article he copied and pasted he'd have seen these words (my emphasis):

...according to actual scientists and not conspiracy-addled politicians, climate change could actually make snow storms worse. ThinkProgress spoke to Michael Mann, the nation’s preeminent climatologist, about Winter Storm Jonas, which is currently blanketing the eastern seaboard in feet of snow. He said this is not a fluke. “There is peer-reviewed science that now suggests that climate change will lead to more of these intense, blizzard-producing nor’easter,” according to Mann. This is because a warming climate means increased moisture in the atmosphere, and when cold air meets moisture — surprise! — it snows. Sometimes a lot, like we’re seeing right now.

In fact the entire copy and paste was about how it's the increase in precipitation (not the temperature) that is linked to global warming.

Eric is such a duffer.

On a related note - what caused the warm patch that fueled Jonas?

In case I don't get to finish an article I've started about the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, make sure you read the new article by Stefan Rahmstorf at realclimate.org. It's about the cold anomaly under Greenland (from melting ice), which may be contributing to a slowdown in AMOC, and could have been partly responsible for the anomalous warmth up the top of the Atlantic on the North American coast, which in turn fueled Jonas.

As with every article Stefan writes, it's very informative and thought-provoking.

From the WUWT comments

Eric isn't the only simpleton at WUWT though unlike Eric, a lot of the people commenting did recognise that the Grist article was about snowfall not temperature. Still, the comment thread is littered with silly "thoughts" from people behaving foolishly.

Leo Smith wants to get something out, but I've no idea what that might be:

January 25, 2016 at 12:21 am
Any weather at all is proof of global warming.
It’s just like any religion. Something weird happens? ‘Its GodSwill’ they cry. Nothing much happens at all? How weird is THAT? ‘Its GodSwill’…

William Astley is still expecting global cooling, even after two record hot years in a row. He's convinced himself that an ice age is comething:

January 25, 2016 at 2:36 am (excerpt)
...The cult of CAGW are and can continue to ignore the signs of an imminent significant drop in planetary climate. The entire scientific basis of CAGW and even AGW was incorrect. The warming in the last 150 years was due to solar cycle changes, not due to the increase in atmospheric CO2. If that assertion is correct global warming is reversible.

The cult of CAGW will not be able to spin away a significant year by year drop in planetary temperature. The public will demand an explain as to why planetary temperature is dropping year after year and will need reassurance as to when the drop in planetary temperature will end. 

davidmhoffer can't imagine that the Arctic can be warming as well as sending cold air down south:

January 25, 2016 at 12:10 am
...Well Dr Mann, what happened to arctic amplification? The claim was, and continues to be, that the arctic will warm much faster than the rest of the earth. So, does it not follow that although we’ll still get arctic blasts, they’ll not be as cold as they once were? And, those blasts being driven by temperature gradients that have been reduced, will they not be weaker and less frequent, just like we have seen with hurricanes and tornadoes? Further, since both the cold air mass and the warm air mass are expected to be warmer than before, does that not result in precipitation that would otherwise have fallen as snow showing up as rain instead? Meaning less snow storms but more rain?

C’mon Dr Mann, we know you read this blog. Just jump in and explain it to me please.

David, you know how even though it's warming faster than most other places on earth, the Arctic is still rather cold place, especially in winter. Well, what happens is, as Dr Mann said in that passage you quoted:

There is peer-reviewed science that now suggests that climate change will lead to more of these intense, blizzard-producing nor’easters, for precisely the reason we’re seeing this massive storm — unusually warm Atlantic ocean surface temperatures (temperatures are in the 70s off the coast of Virginia).

When you mix extra moisture with “a cold Arctic outbreak (something we’ll continue to get even as global warming proceeds),” as Mann points out, “you get huge amounts of energy and moisture, and monster snowfalls, like we’re about to see here. 

Is that really so hard to understand?

There was the usual infantile snark from science deniers, who perhaps don't "believe" that the storm was fueled by warm seas, or maybe don't even believe that there was a storm. Marcus' "thought" was:

January 24, 2016 at 8:22 pm
Global cooling is PROOF of Glo.Bull Warming !! That’s liberal logic for ya !

stuartlynne wrote:

January 24, 2016 at 11:16 pm
In the perfect pre-industrial world temperatures never varied from the pre-determined norm by more than 2C. It never snowed early or late. It always rained at night just to keep the plants happy. Any variance from that MUST be caused by nasty humans burning fossil fuels.

davidmhoffer can't resist a sexist taunt:

January 24, 2016 at 9:49 pm
The article is written by a sharp tongued young woman named Katie Herzog.
Did I mention that she is sharp tongued and her first name is Katie?
You don’t suppose…. 

References and further reading

Sorry! Winter Storm Jonas doesn’t make climate change a liberal hoax - article by By Katie Herzog at Grist, on 22 Jan 2016

Why Big Blizzards In Winter Don’t Disprove Global Warming - article by Joe Romm at ClimateProgress, January 2016

Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System - article by Stefan Rahmstorf at realclimate.org, January 2016

Winter Storm Jonas Detailed Updates - timeline from Weather.com

From the HotWhopper archives

• More wild weather for the USA - January 2016
• Slowing ocean circulation prompts more Mann bashing from deniers at WUWT - March 2015