tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post851574318196868110..comments2024-03-25T05:30:23.847+11:00Comments on HotWhopper: The surface compared with the lower troposphere and the Daily Mail's big blooperSouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comBlogger76125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-16799193854158811942016-01-14T00:42:21.111+11:002016-01-14T00:42:21.111+11:00Sorry Sou, its that page Geoff linked to above:
...Sorry Sou, its that page Geoff linked to above:<br /><br />https://ghrc.nsstc.nasa.gov/amsutemps/amsutemps.pl?r=000<br /><br />Chucknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-88516443470941972832016-01-14T00:38:21.349+11:002016-01-14T00:38:21.349+11:00There is a paper about that:
Stephen Po-Chedley, ...There is a paper about that:<br /><br />Stephen Po-Chedley, Tyler J. Thorsen, and Qiang Fu, 2015: Removing Diurnal Cycle Contamination in Satellite-Derived Tropospheric Temperatures: Understanding Tropical Tropospheric Trend Discrepancies. J. Climate, 28, 2274–2290.<br />doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00767.1 Ulinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-6946169645426659162016-01-13T00:02:53.378+11:002016-01-13T00:02:53.378+11:00What is the GHRC page, Chuck?What is the GHRC page, Chuck?Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-43039079519081963712016-01-12T23:30:50.496+11:002016-01-12T23:30:50.496+11:00Thanks Sou,
From this I get that all other satell...Thanks Sou,<br /><br />From this I get that all other satellites use channel 2. However, looking at the GHRC page, I don't see any input from these other satellites for TLT. Perhaps GHRC does not use these other satellites. <br /><br />I would just like to get this straight before I get back to various "Sceptic" acquaintances of mine who keep bleating the "but the satellites are more accurate" blahChucknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-63051301459364866762016-01-12T20:20:46.401+11:002016-01-12T20:20:46.401+11:00The list of satellites used in the upper atmospher...The list of satellites used in the upper atmosphere for RSS are listed on the RSS website. The lower troposphere ones are on the far left (TLT).<br /><br />http://www.remss.com/measurements/upper-air-temperature#RSS Sounding ProductsSouhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-13031253279051446602016-01-12T18:55:04.809+11:002016-01-12T18:55:04.809+11:00If this is correct, what are UAH & RSS reporti...If this is correct, what are UAH & RSS reporting currently? Do they have alternate sattelite input?Chucknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-26738221250441396122016-01-12T14:54:24.624+11:002016-01-12T14:54:24.624+11:00Yes, indeed, have seen it 3 times, strongly recomm...Yes, indeed, have seen it 3 times, strongly recommended.John Masheynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-42027728207786959202016-01-12T11:45:12.756+11:002016-01-12T11:45:12.756+11:00Yes Mark. They were all very close (satellite and ...Yes Mark. They were all very close (satellite and surface) until recently. RSS split off from the others noticeably from around 2011, and actually probably a few years before that. That still left UAH and surface very similar. Then UAH adopted v6Beta which made UAH more like RSS for the global aggregate for the lower troposphere. <br /><br />So now it's surface vs UAH and RSS, but that's only for the last few years. They are very similar up until around 2005-06.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-81241753018986491162016-01-12T09:18:15.395+11:002016-01-12T09:18:15.395+11:00So extraordinary I had to read this twice:
UAH ve...So extraordinary I had to read this twice:<br /><br />UAH version 5.6 "is far closer to the surface measures than it is to V6 (or RSS)."<br /><br />http://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/2016/01/satellite-temperature-readings-diverge.htmlAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15427410783634375334noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-64745226349890485862016-01-12T08:03:37.909+11:002016-01-12T08:03:37.909+11:00Peter T. - You may have been thinking of Fu and Jo...Peter T. - You may have been thinking of Fu and Johanson's mid-troposphere time series, recently referred to as "T24" (on the RSS web site, it's called "TTT"). The weighting function utilizes channel 2 and 4 of the MSU and is computed from this equation: T24 = 1.1*T2 − 0.1*T4.<br /><br />Since you are a co-author for Mears 2011 paper, perhaps you can answer a question which has been bouncing around in my mind for quite a while. The emission weighting curves which have appeared in that report and many earlier ones are theoretical calculations. I would assume that they are based on an assumed temperature vs. pressure height, such as the US Standard Atmosphere. I would also assume that these calculated curves are the basis for the algorithms developed by Spencer & Christy and others. <br /><br />My question is: "If these weighting curves depend on a fixed temperature/pressure-height relationship, what happens in the real world with real profiles of temperature vs. pressure height?" <br /><br />I'm thinking specifically of the polar regions, where the pressure height of the tropopause changes considerably between seasons. If the algorithms are "tuned" to temperate latitude conditions, will they still function as desired to remove the stratospheric signal at other latitudes and seasons?<br /><br /><br />E. Swansonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16458400506150142847noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-11152230651946315262016-01-12T06:47:50.162+11:002016-01-12T06:47:50.162+11:00Everyone interested in this topiuc should; read Ke...Everyone interested in this topiuc should; read Kevin Cowtan's <a href="http://skepticalscience.com/surface_temperature_or_satellite_brightness.html" rel="nofollow">new post</a>.<br />Click on the flowchart that explains the satellite analysis algorithms.John Masheynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-71728325287733122462016-01-11T18:11:37.795+11:002016-01-11T18:11:37.795+11:00A few meters here or there won't do anything i...A few meters here or there won't do anything important with the calculations. The extreme response to ENSO (El Nino, La Nina) suggests there is something with water vapor/clouds.Marconoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-14714690481238864932016-01-11T16:54:09.711+11:002016-01-11T16:54:09.711+11:00Umm, just wondering, and this is grade 10 chemistr...Umm, just wondering, and this is grade 10 chemistry, but: if the earth is heating up, then the atmosphere close to the earth is warming up somewhat. As gasses expand with heat, would that effect the size/shape of the troposhere, at least few metres here or there? Would that affect the results of the satellites and the calculations therein?Geoffnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-83717356610315319532016-01-11T07:27:06.948+11:002016-01-11T07:27:06.948+11:00Maybe I'm conflating more recent approaches he...Maybe I'm conflating more recent approaches here. The early TLT (maybe still) was indeed the difference between off-nadir scan angles. Whether you difference two channels or do the difference of off-nadir scan angles the end result is the same that the synthetic weighting kernel that results has a negative portion in regions of the stratosphere.Peter Thornehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02162731948558575070noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-45408406583462377362016-01-11T07:16:39.797+11:002016-01-11T07:16:39.797+11:00Peter T. - Your description isn't what I under...Peter T. - Your description isn't what I understand to be the UAH method for calculating the TLT from the MSU data. See:<br />Spencer, R.W., J. R. Christy, Precision and Radiosonde Validation of Satellite Gridpoint Temperature Anomalies, Part II: A Tropospheric Retrieval and Trends during 1979-90., J. Climate 5, 858-866, 1992b.<br /><br />They used only the 11 scan positions from channel 2 of the MSU. For the 11 positions in each cross track swath, numbered T1 to T11 with T6 being directly down, (nadir), the algorithm was:<br /><br />TLT = (T3 + T4 + T8 + T9) - 0.75(T1 + T2 + T10 + T11)<br /><br />That algorithm excludes data from channels 5, 6,and 7 and only makes use that from 1,2,10 and 11 in order to correct the average of 3, 4, 8 and 9. While S & C have repeatedly claimed that their TLT represents coverage of the entire Earth, the fact that they use less than 30 percent of the actual area under the scan positions of each swath using this algorithm. They later published an algorithm for the AMSU, in which they again use only one channel, combining the data from each position in a much different fashion. See note 6 in: Christy et al. 2003, "Error Estimates of Version 5.0 of MSU–AMSU Bulk Atmospheric Temperatures", J. Atmos. & Ocean Tech, v20, 613.<br /><br />I have no clue what they did with more recent versions of their TLT thru v5.6. Version 6 utilizes a completely different approach, which has not yet been documented, as far as I am aware.<br />E. Swansonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16458400506150142847noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-6430724397254355352016-01-10T21:29:03.257+11:002016-01-10T21:29:03.257+11:00Satellite microwave measurements do not look at th...Satellite microwave measurements do not look at the poles where the temperature anomalies are far larger with Global warming. <br /> <br />Cowtan and Way were especially careful to account for even the paucity of ground level thermometer measurements. If I remember correctly they even accounted for land ice and water for the corrections they did for sparse data.<br /><br />It looks to me that there is a cumulative error from about 2000 on between the surface and satellite measurements. This could be a combination of poor coverage at the poles and previous attempts at formulating an algorithm that converts measuring a column of air microwave emission and temperature somewhere on this column to match ground measurements.<br />As a former pilot I can tell you that rising thermals that eagles, hawks and glider pilots use would not exist if even a few thousand feet above ground level air was not cooler than ground level.<br /> <br />I have taken off at 200 ft above sea level at 37C and at 5000 ft it was a comfortable 27 C. At 10.000 ft it was cold enough to turn on the aircraft heater. Ask the WWII bomber pilots how cold it was at 20.000ft. Bert<br />Bert from Elthamnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-79667286742011190172016-01-10T20:14:15.616+11:002016-01-10T20:14:15.616+11:00Joe T,
1. Was a fat finger typo. The parametric u...Joe T,<br /><br />1. Was a fat finger typo. The parametric uncertainty estimates are easily 0.1K/decade effect. Paper is <a href="http://images.remss.com/papers/rsspubs/Mears_JGR_2011_MSU_AMSU_Uncertainty.pdf" rel="nofollow">here</a>. RSS uncertainties are much broader than those for surface products as are radiosonde estimates.<br /><br />2. The actual MSU / AMSU channels only have positive kernels but TLT is a combination of two channels. The combination is of the form 1.2*Ch2-0.2*Ch4 (for MSU, for AMSU with more channels the channel numbers are shifted (as are their frequencies slightly and therefore what they measure - the immediate effect is accounted for but the trend effect may lead to an error of 10% in itself). The recombination yields negative weighting kernels in the mid-to-upper stratospheric region. RSS for a long time refused to claculate a TLT product for this reason. Trouble is that without doing this you are stuck with TMT which has 10%+ weighting contribution from the stratosphere (which is cooling much faster than the troposphere is warming - and this is the part of the signal that makes clear its anthropogenically forced, a warming trop and cooling strat is a fingerprint of our effects). RSS reluctantly went down that path but they and UAH appear to be trying new, alternative approaches in developing new products.<br /><br />3. The MSU is mainly outside that spectrum (50-58GHz). That range of the spectrum is almost uniquely determined by the vibration of Oxygen molecules with temperature dependence. The effects of water vapour are minimal but there is a scattering effect from water/ice droplets which means there is an issue in very heavily precipitating clouds.Peter Thornehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02162731948558575070noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-51631551416683462452016-01-10T20:12:23.267+11:002016-01-10T20:12:23.267+11:00Merchants of Doubt has been made into a fantastic ...Merchants of Doubt has been made into a fantastic documentary, the tactics of the deniers are laid bare <br /><br />"Once revealed NEVER concealed"<br />Tadaaahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07736188830660481871noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-50365205628744848212016-01-10T20:10:18.627+11:002016-01-10T20:10:18.627+11:00This comment has been removed by the author.Tadaaahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07736188830660481871noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-23591039592681623542016-01-10T18:10:50.268+11:002016-01-10T18:10:50.268+11:00I have been backtracking origins of common memes.
...I have been backtracking origins of common memes.<br /><br />Let us recall where and when the “satellites are more accurate” meme started, i.e., part of SkS#38 in fixed list.<br />Jastrow, Nierenberg, Seitz(1990),<br /><a href="http://www.amazon.com/SCIENTIFIC-PERSPECTIVES-GR--Robert-Jastrow/dp/091546358X" rel="nofollow">Scientific Perspectives on the Greenhouse Problem.</a> Cheap, basically for shipping. Everybody should have one. If those names are unfamiliar, read Merchants of Doubt(2010).<br /><br />pp.95-104 is Spencer and Christy on satellites<br />That of course is not peer-reviewed, but starts:<br />"Passive microwave radiometry from satellites provides more precise atmospheric temperature information than that obtained from the relatively sparse distribution of thermometers over the earth’s surface. … monthly precision of <b>0.01C</b> … etc, etc.”<br /><br />So, they knew this with 10 years experience … which of course doesn’t explain the numerous corrections over the years, and program bugs, etc…<br /><br />This is an old, old meme, pushed relentlessly Msrshall Inst, Fred Singer, Heartland Environment and Climate News ... since 1990.<br />John Masheynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-15385046905076693392016-01-10T15:41:28.675+11:002016-01-10T15:41:28.675+11:00Thanks, Peter.
BTW - here is the NOAA STAR page, ...Thanks, Peter.<br /><br />BTW - here is the NOAA STAR page, with charts and links to data:<br /><a href="http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/mscat/" rel="nofollow">http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/mscat/</a>Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-90168854519989671662016-01-10T13:52:22.859+11:002016-01-10T13:52:22.859+11:00Maybe we should read main instead of man...Maybe we should read main instead of man...Gédhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06512737277447616924noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-65918786472693338152016-01-10T09:37:13.648+11:002016-01-10T09:37:13.648+11:00There is only limited funding for science, so you ...There is only limited funding for science, so you have to pick your battles. Victor Venemahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02842816166712285801noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-64693395217891412102016-01-10T08:19:04.004+11:002016-01-10T08:19:04.004+11:00Thanks Peter for your very valuable input. Just to...Thanks Peter for your very valuable input. Just to clarify I few things in what you wrote. First c.01.K/decade is supposed to mean, what? The uncertainty in the warming is 1K/decade? Or is it 0.01 K/decade? What the uncertainty in each data point? GISS usually gives a 1 sigma uncertainty for the annual temperature of 0.05C. How does that compare to RSS?<br /><br />Second, when you say that TLT has a negative kernel, you're referring to the kernel with respect to the radiation transfer equation which is an integral function? Does a negative kernel imply absorption? If it's negative, how does RSS explain their use of TLT? <br /><br />And finally, if I look up the absorption of microwaves in the 56-60 GHz range due to water vapor, it's quite substantial. Is this a significant problem in the measurements? If so, how does UAH or RSS account for the water vapor problem? Thanks!JoeThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06540568535579405609noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-71480611755500182292016-01-10T04:11:49.021+11:002016-01-10T04:11:49.021+11:00In one sense yes--ENSO's tend to have more CO2...In one sense yes--ENSO's tend to have more CO2 evulsion from the oceans. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02587907274042059195noreply@blogger.com