tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post7004318483570035131..comments2024-03-25T05:30:23.847+11:00Comments on HotWhopper: David Rose and his tabloid "reporting" of Arctic sea ice and other nonsenseSouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comBlogger26125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-28953164896050197062013-09-15T15:15:49.794+10:002013-09-15T15:15:49.794+10:00And the title: "Global warming is just HALF w...And the title: "Global warming is just HALF what we said: World's top climate scientists admit computers got the effects of greenhouse gases wrong"Lars Karlssonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06158469980966810882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-10581012374410085902013-09-15T15:14:39.786+10:002013-09-15T15:14:39.786+10:00David Rose is at it again.
"They recognise t...<a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2420783/Global-warming-just-HALF-said-Worlds-climate-scientists-admit-computers-got-effects-greenhouse-gases-wrong.html" rel="nofollow">David Rose is at it again.</a><br /><br />"They recognise the global warming ‘pause’ first reported by The Mail on Sunday last year is real – and concede that their computer models did not predict it. But they cannot explain why world average temperatures have not shown any statistically significant increase since 1997.<br /><br />They admit large parts of the world were as warm as they are now for decades at a time between 950 and 1250 AD – centuries before the Industrial Revolution, and when the population and CO2 levels were both much lower."<br /><br /><br />And this is probably the worst part:<br /><br />"As things stand, the atmosphere is expected to have twice as much CO2 as in pre-industrial times by about 2050. In 2007, the IPCC said the ‘likeliest’ figure was 3C, with up to 4.5C still ‘likely’.<br /><br />Now it does not give a ‘likeliest’ value and admits it is ‘likely’ it may be as little as 1.5C – so giving the world many more decades to work out how to reduce carbon emissions before temperatures rise to dangerous levels."<br /><br />Lars Karlssonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06158469980966810882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-54836067954758222352013-09-10T15:41:45.591+10:002013-09-10T15:41:45.591+10:00What, Jack, is "technically true" about ...What, Jack, is "technically true" about Rose's invention of a 'UN' meeting convened specifically because of this years Arctic summer sea ice extent?<br /><br />Technically,it's an audacious fabrication. This will be ruled on by the UK Press Council,no doubt,and a [worthless and untimely] retraction may follow. Nickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09537772941984056434noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-68238380748126046282013-09-10T06:10:30.390+10:002013-09-10T06:10:30.390+10:00I don't seriously think that Hayley Dixon is D...I don't seriously think that Hayley Dixon is David Rose. I'd guess it's more a case of plagiarism. Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-33969979053180623342013-09-10T06:04:23.173+10:002013-09-10T06:04:23.173+10:00Oh, Judith Curry goes further than merely being ha...Oh, Judith Curry goes further than merely being happy to talk to him, she positively praises David Rose - this time and on other occasions. Judith sinks further into denial with each article. She must be edging closer to retirement after which she will be able to be an even more gung ho denier!Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-60451213808668531962013-09-10T04:35:13.114+10:002013-09-10T04:35:13.114+10:00Remember Yes, Minister?
The Daily Mirror is read ...Remember <i>Yes, Minister</i>?<br /><br />The Daily Mirror is read by people who think they run the country.<br />The Guardian is read by people who think they ought to run the country.<br />The Times is read by the people who actually run the country<br />The Daily Mail is read by the wives of people who actually run the country ...<br />The Financial Times is read by people who own the country.<br />The Morning Star is read by people who think the country should be run by another country.<br />The Telegraph is run by people who think it is run by another country.<br />What about The Sun?<br />Sun readers don't care who runs the country as long as she has big tits.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-65409925333335528602013-09-10T03:54:47.117+10:002013-09-10T03:54:47.117+10:00"GISTEMP and [latterly] HadCRUT4 do not "..."GISTEMP and [latterly] HadCRUT4 do not "fit" their argument so well." <br /><br />Also sorry Lars Karlsson - we crossed. BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-62291149637924457872013-09-10T03:52:03.932+10:002013-09-10T03:52:03.932+10:00They predicted a phase of deep ocean warming.
Wel...<i>They predicted a phase of deep ocean warming.</i><br /><br />Well, they hypothesised that either changes in cloud formation and/or ocean heat uptake could provide the physical mechanism for the cessation in the warming trend.<br /><br />Given what I suspect is a misrepresentation by Rose, it's worth looking at what S&T actually did say in a formal publication. From <a href="https://pantherfile.uwm.edu/kswanson/www/publications/2008GL037022_all.pdf" rel="nofollow">Swanson & Tsonis (2009):</a><br /><br /><i>Using a new measure of coupling strength, this update shows that these climate modes have recently synchronized, with synchronization peaking in the year 2001/02. This synchronization has been followed by an increase in coupling. This suggests that the climate system may well have shifted again, with a consequent break in the global mean temperature trend from the post 1976/77 warming to a new period (indeterminate length) of roughly constant global mean temperature.</i><br /><br />And:<br /><br /><i>If as suggested here, a dynamically driven climate shift has occurred, the duration of similar shifts during the 20th century suggests the new global mean temperature trend may persist for several decades. Of course, it is purely speculative to presume that the global mean temperature will remain near current levels for such an extended period of time. Moreover, we caution that the shifts described here are presumably superimposed upon a long term warming trend due to anthropogenic forcing. However, the nature of these past shifts in climate state suggests the possibility of near constant temperature lasting a decade or more into the future must at least be entertained.</i><br /><br />So S&T are not predicting a cooling trend, but "near constant temperature". Possibly Tsonis has changed his mind, but given the second quote from S&T09, this would be somewhat surprising.<br /><br />I'm certainly not calling S&T names. Rest assured of that. However, I remember thinking that their climate shift hypothesis was rather speculative, and depended somewhat on using HadCRUT3. GISTEMP and HadCRUT4 didn't "fit" their argument so well. All fascinating stuff though, and perhaps they have something solid here. Time will tell. BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-19203256564257403002013-09-10T03:31:04.686+10:002013-09-10T03:31:04.686+10:00They are definitely not "denialists". Fr...They are definitely not "denialists". From <a href="ftp://205.193.112.140/pub/ocean/CCS-WG_References/NewSinceReport/March15/Swanson%20and%20Tsonis%20Has%20the%20climate%20recently%20shifted%202008GL037022.pdf" rel="nofollow">"Has the climate recently shifted?"</a>:<br /><br />"[16] Finally, it is vital to note that there is no comfort to be gained by having a climate with a significant degree of internal variability, even if it results in a near-term cessation of global warming. It is straightforward to argue that a climate with significant internal variability is a climate that is very sensitive to applied anthropogenic radiative anomalies [cf. Roe, 2009]. If the role of internal variability in the climate system is as large as this analysis would seem to suggest, warming over the 21st century may well be larger than that predicted by the current generation of models, given the propensity of those models to underestimate climate internal variability [Kravtsov and Spannagle, 2008]."Lars Karlssonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06158469980966810882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-1278570265880866202013-09-10T03:20:23.413+10:002013-09-10T03:20:23.413+10:00Tsonis possibly did say it. He often sites mid-cen...Tsonis possibly did say it. He often sites mid-century cooling as the roadmap for what is happening now. It lasted ~40 years. <br /><br /><i>It is evident from the smoothed version that on<br />decadal time scales there are times when the global temperature<br />trend is shifting from negative to positive and viceversa.<br />These shifts are superimposed on a low frequency signal<br />known as global warming. Here we are not interested on<br />the origins of the low frequency signal. Rather we are interested<br />in the departures from this signal over decadal time<br />scales. ...</i> - Tsonis<br /><br />I do not think Tsonis and Swanson are in denial of AGW. They think the mid-centrury cooling was caused mostly by ocean cycles, and not so much by aerosols. They predicted the GMT would go flat. They predicted a phase of deep ocean warming. Their work appears significant. It won't work to call them "denialists" as they are not.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-64508771860491780342013-09-10T02:55:57.220+10:002013-09-10T02:55:57.220+10:00Surely it is not ethical for a journalist to write...Surely it is not ethical for a journalist to write under a false name? That Rose does this just further indicates that he is ethically bankrupt and cannot be trusted.Albatrosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14444036939651524737noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-29704618329636376802013-09-10T02:33:09.033+10:002013-09-10T02:33:09.033+10:00Twice Judith Curry was allegedly misled by David R...Twice Judith Curry was allegedly misled by David Rose, with her comments allegedly taken out of context. Now, a normal person would not talk to David Rose again. But she's very happy to do so. Which makes it crystal clear (even more than it already was) that she's in the same tribe/team as GWPF and Rose.Nevenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15413215743703093876noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-27894262845745350132013-09-10T00:43:19.494+10:002013-09-10T00:43:19.494+10:00It's interesting that "Jack" thinks ...It's interesting that "Jack" thinks that lying to the electorate in order to subvert democracy for financial gain is the way to go.<br /><br />Perhaps "Jack" didn't bother to read this short thread before commenting favourably on Rose's lies and misrepresentations.<br /><br />Possibly "Jack" doesn't understand <a href="http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2011/07/daily-mail-and-the-global-warming-policy-foundation" rel="nofollow">the rather special relationship between the Mail and the GWPF</a> - Lord Lawson's fake "educational charity" aka front group for determinedly anonymous vested interests.<br /><br />Could it be that "Jack" doesn't understand that lying to the electorate inhibits the efficient functioning of democracy?<br /><br />Or perhaps "Jack" is anti-democracy and shilling for vested interests. If he isn't doing this wittingly, then he is simply a useful idiot. <br /><br />He is certainly a liar himself:<br /><br /><i>Nuccitelli writes a bitter and twisted faux-rebuttal</i><br /><br />I have now read DN's Guardian piece twice and there is exactly nothing "bitter and twisted" and nothing "faux" about it. <br /><br />Why do deniers lie and misrepresent constantly? More to the point, why doesn't this obligate reliance on mendacity trouble them?<br /><br />Now that really is a puzzler.<br />BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-24321388370644022982013-09-09T23:31:15.851+10:002013-09-09T23:31:15.851+10:00Is this a Poe?
How is Rose's stuff "tech...Is this a Poe?<br /><br />How is Rose's stuff "technically true" btw?<br /><br />I am reminded of the Yiddish proverb that a half-truth is a whole lie.BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-66214167185012932102013-09-09T22:54:27.576+10:002013-09-09T22:54:27.576+10:00David Rose writes a “technically true” article in ...David Rose writes a “technically true” article in The Mail which millions of voters will read, and become less alarmed and more dubious about the spectre of “global warming” as a consequence….Nuccitelli writes a bitter and twisted faux-rebuttal in the obscure sections of the loss-making Guardian….<br /><br />I will settle for that!<br />Jack Savagehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09080676066827852249noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-51390291593188185222013-09-09T21:35:26.856+10:002013-09-09T21:35:26.856+10:00Thanks, BBD. I don't know how I missed that.Thanks, BBD. I don't know how I missed that.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-48180853458078492962013-09-09T21:02:46.782+10:002013-09-09T21:02:46.782+10:00I can't say where JB got the data from, but yo...I can't say where JB got the data from, but you will find it <a href="http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/09/piomas-september-2013.html" rel="nofollow">here at Neven's.</a>BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-91706475005130032102013-09-09T15:05:28.526+10:002013-09-09T15:05:28.526+10:00Thanks for that, John. Have you got a link?Thanks for that, John. Have you got a link?Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-79658019944268321232013-09-09T09:25:24.542+10:002013-09-09T09:25:24.542+10:00average thickness Arctic sea ice end august
2005:...average thickness Arctic sea ice end august <br />2005: 2.33 (-0.05)<br />2006: 2.19 (-0.22)<br />2007: 2.11 (-0.04)<br />2008: 2.43 (+0.00)<br />2009: 2.04 (-0.02)<br />2010: 1.43 (-0.14)<br />2011: 1.40 (-0.16)<br />2012: 1.39 (-0.13)<br />2013: 1.34 (-0.14) john byattnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-43549175911692764372013-09-09T08:22:51.802+10:002013-09-09T08:22:51.802+10:00"But Judith does like to shout "uncertai...<i>"But Judith does like to shout "uncertain" as often as she can. She's an avowed delayer wanting to wait till the earth boils before doing anything to mitigate global warming."</i><br /><br />And the funny thing is that neither JC nor her audience seem to realise that a large uncertainty makes the case for mitigation (reducing greenhouse gases) over adaptation stronger. More uncertainty means that we have to prepare for a larger range of possible new situations, which naturally makes adaptation more expensive.Victor Venemahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02842816166712285801noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-1857716665500101872013-09-09T04:46:58.302+10:002013-09-09T04:46:58.302+10:00John Russell knows very well that the DM/MOS are f...John Russell knows very well that the DM/MOS are fed much of its misinformation by Lord Lawson's "educational charity" the GWPF. Lawson and the DM/MOS editor Paul Dacre are chums, you see.<br /><br />Anyone interested in learning more about the way a front organisation for anonymous vested interests is misleading the British public can <a href="http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2011/07/daily-mail-and-the-global-warming-policy-foundation" rel="nofollow">get the whole story</a> at the excellent Carbon Brief. <br /><br />John Russell is either too modest or too polite to link to this source himself.<br /><br />:-)BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-59281478220710503792013-09-09T00:53:32.860+10:002013-09-09T00:53:32.860+10:00Another interesting fact that counters a Rose deni...Another interesting fact that counters a Rose denial meme: I can't find two contiguous years where both have record low Arctic ice extents. Within the record to date <a href="http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/" rel="nofollow">there's always been a rebound</a> (also called a 'regression to mean'). <br /><br />Of course this is not a rule: as ice loss accelerates we would expect the likelihood of two successive record low years to increase.<br /><br /><i>[And thanks for the follow, Sou!]</i> John Russellhttps://twitter.com/JohnRussell40noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-38399126348296201222013-09-08T23:57:34.795+10:002013-09-08T23:57:34.795+10:00The Daily Mail has a poor reputation for science. ...The Daily Mail has a poor reputation for science. It is rather gullible with regards to press releases on science, especially medical matters. It appears to be trying to sort all known materials into two lists, those that cause cancer and those that prevent cancer. See http://kill-or-cure.herokuapp.com/Catmandohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12313870265499015076noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-27804332953119691662013-09-08T23:11:05.171+10:002013-09-08T23:11:05.171+10:00Daily Mail song http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5eB...Daily Mail song http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5eBT6OSr1TIAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-74782384844606797792013-09-08T21:43:37.113+10:002013-09-08T21:43:37.113+10:00His motivation for making up stuff is fairly easy ...His motivation for making up stuff is fairly easy to guess. Just look at how many denialist blogs <a href="https://www.google.com.au/search?q=A+chilly+Arctic+summer+has+left+nearly+a+million+more+square+miles+of+ocean+covered+with+ice+than+at+the+same+time+last+year+%E2%80%93+an+increase+of+60+per+cent&oq=A+chilly+Arctic+summer+has+left+nearly+a+million+more+square+miles+of+ocean+covered+with+ice+than+at+the+same+time+last+year+%E2%80%93+an+increase+of+60+per+cent&aqs=chrome..69i57j69i64l3&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8" rel="nofollow">have already picked up</a> on his item. David Rose is not in "journalism" to report or discuss facts. He's like Anthony Watts - he's after an audience.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.com