tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post5955781233084123482..comments2024-03-25T05:30:23.847+11:00Comments on HotWhopper: ENSO Wrap up - El Niño AlertSouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-10972050893336965582014-11-21T18:11:31.231+11:002014-11-21T18:11:31.231+11:00It would be nice to predict an event with a bit mo...It would be nice to predict an event with a bit more warning. On the other hand, the nature of these events and their duration means there's usually sufficient info far enough ahead for farmers to plan what crops and pastures to sow, and for utility companies (water and electricity in particular) to plan for dry or wet. And for ordinary people to decide whether it's time to finally get that rainwater tank installed :)<br /><br /> It's not perfect, but it's a lot better than it used to be.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-48482321011758771322014-11-21T17:56:13.418+11:002014-11-21T17:56:13.418+11:00Thank you - that's most helpful. It's a b...Thank you - that's most helpful. It's a bit disappointing that ENSO events seem to be rather hard to predict. James Dnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-1738062880025936042014-11-21T17:41:38.037+11:002014-11-21T17:41:38.037+11:00The link at the bottom of the above article explai...The link at the bottom of the above article explains the mechanisms to some extent. Here's <a href="http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2014/01/gobbling-up-or-spitting-out-bob.html#aboutenso" rel="nofollow">a direct link to the main section</a>. The article has links to other sources of information. <br /><br />ENSO a natural expression of the dynamics of the atmosphere and oceans, like other oscillating patterns such as the longer-lasting <a href="http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2014/10/the-pacific-decadal-oscillation-and.html" rel="nofollow">Pacific Decadal Oscillation</a>, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and other patterns that scientists see repeating over time. <br /><br />I'm not suggesting ENSO events and the PDO and IPO are the brought about by the same mechanisms, they aren't. They are similar only in that they all seem to repeat. That is, in all three cases, similar (though not identical) patterns are seen to recur over time. In other wordws, a new La Nina has many similarities with a previous La Nina. One warm phase of the PDO has similarities with another warm phase of the PDO.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-22905903444289212232014-11-21T17:20:18.444+11:002014-11-21T17:20:18.444+11:00What causes the El Nino effect? Where can I find ...What causes the El Nino effect? Where can I find this out?James Dnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-57219035938474796022014-11-19T20:33:13.225+11:002014-11-19T20:33:13.225+11:00Obviously it would not be good news and no-one wan...Obviously it would not be good news and no-one wants it to happen but it is likely to happen eventually. Perhaps it would be better if it happened earlier rather than later where the variables combined to give a hot year which might make it clearer what is happening to everyone. Then there might be some political will generated. <br />Jammy Dodgerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08360437479098314946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-3906125371906633762014-11-19T15:33:43.100+11:002014-11-19T15:33:43.100+11:00It still looks like the El Nino will be weak. So n...It still looks like the El Nino will be weak. So not catastrophic warming 2014-2015 hopefully. I would hate to see a 1998-type El Nino on top of the 2014 record global average temperatures.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11552461190113661645noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-5369287571448739592014-11-19T09:12:38.603+11:002014-11-19T09:12:38.603+11:00+0.2+0.2JCHnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-1129702511836192282014-11-19T09:11:40.456+11:002014-11-19T09:11:40.456+11:00The last ONI was +0.02.
Say 2014 stays warm and ...The last ONI was +0.02. <br /><br />Say 2014 stays warm and it either ties or eclipses 2010 as the warmest year. And say 2015 starts off with either an EL Nino or several reporting periods of positive ONI. What you would have is the potential for back-to-back warmest years. Lol. The pain. JCHnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-76393623460833134932014-11-19T07:28:55.755+11:002014-11-19T07:28:55.755+11:00In his latest article, Bob was poking fun at "...In his latest article, Bob was poking fun at "alarmists" for talking up an El Nino earlier in the year. Which was weird coming from him, because if anyone was making a big deal of the topic it was Bob Tisdale. He wrote that snide comment in his twentieth article about how an El Nino might be coming - or not. <br /><br />I kid you not. He's written twenty (20) articles about this possible El Nino.<br /><br />His article even had the title: "The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 20 – November Update – The Little El Niño That Shoulda’-Woulda’-Coulda’"Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-32949971275579048132014-11-19T07:00:25.365+11:002014-11-19T07:00:25.365+11:00Until recently at WUWT, Bob Tisdale spent a lot of...Until recently at WUWT, Bob Tisdale spent a lot of time playing down the possibility of an El Nino in 2014.<br /><br />More recently he seemed to switch track and started to look for El Ninos where none have yet been declared.<br /><br />Possibly it has dawned on Bob that insisting there's no El Nino in 2014 while it turns out to be the warmest year on record is a bad look for his view that warming is caused by El Ninos.David Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13842200092197524120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-8129188650705604112014-11-19T06:29:26.870+11:002014-11-19T06:29:26.870+11:00Haha! What does Bob call it? chaotic charge-discha...Haha! What does Bob call it? chaotic charge-discharge oscillator? Except he claims the sun does the charging while TSI has been declining for decades. So it's more like a discharge non-oscillator, lol. Or...AGWJoenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-26357693676999452562014-11-19T06:13:30.642+11:002014-11-19T06:13:30.642+11:00An El Nino? Good heavens, that means the law of c...An El Nino? Good heavens, that means the law of conservation of energy ceases to operate for a while - another useful 'fact' we learnt at WUWT.Millicentnoreply@blogger.com