tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post5561280723999717150..comments2024-03-25T05:30:23.847+11:00Comments on HotWhopper: Wild weather report - early DecemberSouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comBlogger112125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-74633767574746238872015-12-14T02:56:14.127+11:002015-12-14T02:56:14.127+11:00Then there is this set of fresh studies http://www...Then there is this set of fresh studies http://www.climatecentral.org/news/extreme-uk-rains-more-likely-with-warming-19801 suggesting increase of 40% in likelihood of UK deluges0^0https://www.blogger.com/profile/09590270703159793784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-9891580654500673702015-12-12T11:21:51.194+11:002015-12-12T11:21:51.194+11:00Jammy - I'm about to clean up the duplicate co...Jammy - I'm about to clean up the duplicate comments. Try clearing the browser cache, or if that fails, try a different web browser.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-12550573479621007892015-12-12T10:32:05.828+11:002015-12-12T10:32:05.828+11:00Not much talk about the Ice Age which cometh eithe...Not much talk about the Ice Age which cometh either.Cugelnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-61373048198154181382015-12-12T05:29:00.449+11:002015-12-12T05:29:00.449+11:00I am having problems with not seeing comments in t...I am having problems with not seeing comments in the other "Judith Curry" blog. I can see posts that arrive in my email but those same posts are not visible in the HotWhopper comment section. Posts are missing from me, Sou and cRR Kampen. Jammy Dodgerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08360437479098314946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-31439203643516215612015-12-12T05:08:08.953+11:002015-12-12T05:08:08.953+11:00This was the first time Anonymous posted a link to...This was the first time Anonymous posted a link to the Times article. So he failed to respond to metzomagic and failed to respond to me (after his *second* posting of this article - instead he posted it for a THIRD time. Now that's trolling, folks. BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-18449441559605200522015-12-12T05:06:28.259+11:002015-12-12T05:06:28.259+11:00I can't find any publications on this topic by...I can't find any publications on this topic by Spencer. His publications list is mainly related to coastal geomorphology. The only paper I could find relating to this is http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/esp.3853/abstract <br />I presume this is what Spencer is referring to.Hyperactive Hydrologisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00588550613876811230noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-9159042972321331012015-12-12T05:05:40.703+11:002015-12-12T05:05:40.703+11:00Comment threading is broken for me.
* * *
That&...Comment threading is broken for me. <br /><br />* * *<br /><br />That's the THIRD TIME Anonymous has posted a link to the paywalled Times article. And he did not respond to me when I answered him at #2 attempt.<br /><br />So I'm forced to post my response - again - here:<br /><br />Dear Anon<br /><br />Let's try again.<br /><br />Pointing to extreme weather events in the past is an irrelevance and suggests a failure to understand the basic issue.<br /><br />Remember the physics: a warmer troposphere holds more water vapour and warmer SSTs supply more of it. As warming increases, so the hydrological cycle will accelerate and the frequency and severity of extreme precipitation will emerge unambiguously from the weather noise. It's just a matter of time.<br /><br />The increase in <b>the frequency</b> of extraordinary flooding here in the UK is suggestive - but not dispositive - that we are seeing the climate signal beginning to emerge.<br /><br />Fractional attribution (or denial of same) is a mug's game at the moment, although that will change. Physics denial is <b>always</b> a mug's game and that will never change.BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-38138675496097197032015-12-12T04:07:46.461+11:002015-12-12T04:07:46.461+11:00Joshua, no, but I have a Sears poncho.Joshua, no, but I have a Sears poncho.Rattus Norvegicushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03449457204330125792noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-84618467464814477812015-12-12T03:50:19.846+11:002015-12-12T03:50:19.846+11:00here is the link to a press release for Spencer wo...<a href="http://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/unprecedented-storms-and-floods-are-more-common-than-we-think" rel="nofollow">here</a> is the link to a press release for Spencer work. Seems the Times may have "spun" this somewhat. A quote:<br /><i>“It is of concern that historical data suggests there is far more capacity in the North Atlantic climate system to produce wetter and more prolonged flood-rich periods than hitherto experienced in the 21st century. Looking forward, an increased likelihood of weather extremes due to climate change means that extending our flood record using geomorphology science must be placed at the centre of flood risk assessment in the UK.”</i>Philnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-40964623655558735562015-12-12T03:38:16.293+11:002015-12-12T03:38:16.293+11:00This looks like kneejerk rejection of unexpected i...This looks like kneejerk rejection of unexpected information. I've Googled around and see no reason to think Spencer is a skeppo. Frankly, change Spencer to (say) Hansen and, mutatis mutandis, this post would fit well into WUWT.<br /><br />Though I'd like to see some scientific reaction to the claims of Spencer et al. before I accept them as solid. Surely the floods inferred from flood deposits can be cross-checked against records from those times?Treesongnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-57584020206644977662015-12-12T03:27:14.583+11:002015-12-12T03:27:14.583+11:00Is it just me or is there a singular lack of the f...Is it just me or is there a singular lack of the funny old "its all over for the AGW scam" posts that we have all come to know and love? I wonder why that is.Millicentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-22965963239372621072015-12-12T00:07:59.954+11:002015-12-12T00:07:59.954+11:00That article is paywalled, anon.
Nonetheless (fro...That article is paywalled, anon.<br /><br />Nonetheless (from what I could glean from the small amount I was allowed to read), the fact that there have been 34 UK storms of roughly the same severity in the past 300 years isn't the point. It's the increasing frequency of severe flooding events that matters. For every 1 deg C of average temperature, the atmosphere can hold roughly 7% more moisture. That's what causes more frequent severe flooding, and it's a signal that has only recently begun to emerge from the noise.<br /><br />There have been some recent attribution studies that indicate we are 5 times more likely now to get these 1000-year flooding events. So they aren't 1000-year events any longer. And it's only going to get worse if we continue with BAU.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-25413084813317390232015-12-11T22:02:33.944+11:002015-12-11T22:02:33.944+11:00Dear Anon
Let's try again.
Pointing to extr...Dear Anon<br /><br />Let's try again. <br /><br />Pointing to extreme weather events in the past is an irrelevance and suggests a failure to understand the basic issue. <br /><br />Remember the physics: a warmer troposphere holds more water vapour and warmer SSTs supply more of it. As warming increases, so the hydrological cycle will accelerate and the frequency and severity of extreme precipitation will emerge unambiguously from the weather noise. It's just a matter of time.<br /><br />The increase in <b>the frequency</b> of extraordinary flooding here in the UK is suggestive - but not dispositive - that we are seeing the climate signal beginning to emerge.<br /><br />Fractional attribution (or denial of same) is a mug's game at the moment, although that will change. Physics denial is <b>always</b> a mug's game and that will never change.BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-41062469824784673382015-12-11T20:43:49.128+11:002015-12-11T20:43:49.128+11:00You can say that again, Rat. Certainly it has been...You can say that again, Rat. Certainly it has been listed and defined in all main stream dictionaries including Merriam and the OED for many years now. It is a perfectly acceptable Scrabble word as well. jgnfldnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-8552733540480824342015-12-11T20:14:51.712+11:002015-12-11T20:14:51.712+11:00Thanks, we now know Tom Spencer is a shill for She...Thanks, we now know Tom Spencer is a shill for Shell or something (look at the typ i cal style climate revisionism that always looks so demented!!), and he is therefore also responsible for the Cumbria floods (including two fatalities), the Chennai floods (including 300 fatalities) et cetera. Like you.cRR Kampenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07571285063752477448noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-34533064262836157402015-12-11T20:11:45.131+11:002015-12-11T20:11:45.131+11:00" Indeed, that word, and its associated excla..." Indeed, that word, and its associated exclamation marks, seem to have fallen right out of fashion in these articles of late."<br />This is because the unprecedence of weather phenomena in articles of late is a given.cRR Kampenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07571285063752477448noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-46781043717000105672015-12-11T19:36:58.221+11:002015-12-11T19:36:58.221+11:00Well now this rain is causing some serious issues....Well now this rain is causing some serious issues. Our governor declared a state of emergency in 13 counties. And just for good measure a tornado touched down and destroyed some property. <br /><br />http://www.kgw.com/story/news/local/2015/12/10/gov-brown-declares-state-emergency-13-counties/77129852/<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05926482727348678512noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-83286743380063988772015-12-11T14:20:30.254+11:002015-12-11T14:20:30.254+11:00This comment has been removed by the author.Rattus Norvegicushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03449457204330125792noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-65882010283688076342015-12-11T14:17:26.904+11:002015-12-11T14:17:26.904+11:00I would have thought that "grok" had lon...I would have thought that "grok" had long since passed into the vernacular. Oh well, detached from reality in one aspect, detached in others.Rattus Norvegicushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03449457204330125792noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-72412499660919542762015-12-11T13:03:15.566+11:002015-12-11T13:03:15.566+11:00"Scientists have contradicted a minister’s cl...<i>"Scientists have contradicted a minister’s claim that last weekend’s flooding in Cumbria was unprecedented and linked to climate change. They say that there have been 34 extreme floods there in the past 300 years and that lives had been put at risk by “grossly underestimating” the risk of floods and failing to consider evidence from records. "</i><br /><br /><br /><br /><i>"Tom Spencer a reader in coastal ecology and geomorphology at the University of Cambridge, said that analysis of deposits and floods in the 17th, 18th and 19th centuries showed they were the 'bigger events". These floods happened long before the rise in man-made emissions, undermining the claim that last weeks floods were linked to climate change. He said that the government relied too heavily on records dating back only 40 yrs"</i><br /><br />http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/article4636885.eceAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-6572283354265329092015-12-11T12:57:39.866+11:002015-12-11T12:57:39.866+11:00More information:
"Scientists have contradic...More information:<br /><br /><i>"Scientists have contradicted a minister’s claim that last weekend’s flooding in Cumbria was unprecedented and linked to climate change. They say that there have been 34 extreme floods there in the past 300 years and that lives had been put at risk by “grossly underestimating” the risk of floods and failing to consider evidence from records."</i><br /><br />http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/article4636885.ece<br /><br />the rest is paywalled..<br /><br /><br /><i>"Tom Spencer, a reader in coastal ecology and geomorphology at the University of Cambridge, said that analysis of deposits and floods in the 17th, 18th and 19th centuries showed they were the 'bigger events". These floods happened long before the rise in manmade emissions, undermining the claim that last weeks floods were linked to climate change. He said that the government relied too heavily on records dating back only 40 yrs"</i>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-308902153541273642015-12-11T10:49:33.093+11:002015-12-11T10:49:33.093+11:00Here's a link to an article on the Cambridge w...Here's a link to an article on the Cambridge website:<br /><br />http://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/unprecedented-storms-and-floods-are-more-common-than-we-think<br /><br />"“It is of concern that historical data suggests there is far more capacity in the North Atlantic climate system to produce wetter and more prolonged flood-rich periods than hitherto experienced in the 21st century. Looking forward, an increased likelihood of weather extremes due to climate change means that extending our flood record using geomorphology science must be placed at the centre of flood risk assessment in the UK.” <br /><br />Which is consistent with the paper I referred to in my earlier comment at 9:48 above.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-48590427325863549702015-12-11T10:45:43.210+11:002015-12-11T10:45:43.210+11:00That's not Cambridge, it's the Times. And ...That's not Cambridge, it's the Times. And it's behind a paywall so not much use.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-27696305940760410182015-12-11T08:57:04.378+11:002015-12-11T08:57:04.378+11:00University of Cambridge any better? It was for me....University of Cambridge any better? It was for me.<br /><br />http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/article4636885.eceAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-23684176849370679662015-12-11T08:48:36.575+11:002015-12-11T08:48:36.575+11:00From that notorious denialist rag The Times.
http...From that notorious denialist rag The Times.<br /><br />http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/article4636885.eceAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com