tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post5409163910435363068..comments2024-03-25T05:30:23.847+11:00Comments on HotWhopper: We can't say Hurricane Harvey caused climate science deniers but it certainly worsened themSouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comBlogger37125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-27968611550087959802017-09-13T05:08:54.082+10:002017-09-13T05:08:54.082+10:00So i take it you haven't read the recent NOAA ...So i take it you haven't read the recent NOAA report?<br />https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/<br />ZebMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-74882792260039801132017-09-04T14:59:54.575+10:002017-09-04T14:59:54.575+10:00ZebM.
I think you need to understand when you are...ZebM.<br /><br />I think you need to understand when you are making an argument from ignorance.<br /><br />I am sure good studies looking at the dynamics of Hurricane Harvey will be done in the future and will not be based on opinions from blogs.<br /><br />What is know at this point is projections suggest the rainfall from large hurricanes will become more intense because of global warming, and the intense rainfall from Hurricane Harvey is consistent with those projections. The projection is in the IPCC AR5 report.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11872802685104293884noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-54067979582497850372017-09-04T14:52:20.939+10:002017-09-04T14:52:20.939+10:00Ahhh good ol' WUWT. Claims people are not bloc...Ahhh good ol' WUWT. Claims people are not blocked, then leaves every comment you make in moderation. Meanwhile posts that contain nothing but insults of other posters are published.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11872802685104293884noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-69139047423842628852017-09-03T13:10:29.266+10:002017-09-03T13:10:29.266+10:00Maybe the end of your interest, but sadly not the ...Maybe the end of your interest, but sadly not the end of the discussion.<br /><br />Time to get real, this ladies and gentlemen is our new normal, and given the new conditions you can be sure that this is just the beginning of the infrastructure and life destroying extreme storms that will be battering our coastal cities in this next decade and beyond. <br /><br />Incidentally, are you aware of compounding interest and such?<br />It happens within our climate system and biosphere also.citizenschallengehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04559990934735912814noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-45888480460868841532017-09-03T04:48:00.462+10:002017-09-03T04:48:00.462+10:00Oh look: now Eric is pretending he can't tell ...Oh look: now Eric is pretending he can't tell the difference between Nazis and ordinary decent people. Where Trump leads the sheep must follow.Millicentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-3935070059104167362017-09-03T03:26:29.420+10:002017-09-03T03:26:29.420+10:00Jammy Dodger.
Thanks for that. Jammy Dodger.<br />Thanks for that. ZebMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-73879335090416317852017-09-03T03:20:33.335+10:002017-09-03T03:20:33.335+10:00No, not only because.
You are looking at this far...No, not <i><b>only because</b></i>.<br /><br />You are looking at this far too simplistically and not looking at the system as a whole. Yes, Harvey hung about sucking up extra moisture. It also hung about <b>dumping</b> that extra moisture. Moreover it dumped it at a <b>rate</b> 5% greater because, you know, that extra 5% holding capacity. <br /><br />Or perhaps even more. Who knows what the exact dynamics are of extra holding capacity? Perhaps it also sucked it up even faster like super dry blotting paper. <br /><br /><br /><br />Jammy Dodgerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08360437479098314946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-62420018576777720842017-09-03T03:17:45.722+10:002017-09-03T03:17:45.722+10:00If the hurricane was moving overland at an average...<i>If the hurricane was moving overland at an average speed would it still break rainfall records?</i><br /><br />That's a hypothetical. The article explains why that didn't happen, and attributes it in part to climate change.<br /><br />To compare it with other recent events (which are also affected by climate change), here are two articles.<br /><br />The first illustrates the amount of water from Harvey (to the date of the article):<br />https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/8/28/16217626/harvey-houston-flood-water-visualized<br /><br />The second is about the Louisiana floods cf Katrina:<br />https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/08/19/no-name-storm-dumped-three-times-as-much-rain-in-louisiana-as-hurricane-katrina/?utm_term=.949ce9e48dc5Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-86748654626401237862017-09-03T03:17:16.424+10:002017-09-03T03:17:16.424+10:00What i'm trying to say is :it's all about ...What i'm trying to say is :it's all about speed. A hurricane milling around on the coast is obviously a major disaster. Irrespective of SSTs . That's it.<br />Thanks for letting me comment.ZebMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-85905644699587179042017-09-03T03:10:32.539+10:002017-09-03T03:10:32.539+10:00@Jammy Dodger.
So 5% more moisture for hurricane H...@Jammy Dodger.<br />So 5% more moisture for hurricane Harvey to absorb translates into extreme flooding never before experienced? Only because the hurricane hung around sucking up extra moisture .Yes?ZebMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-86384853886377935832017-09-03T03:09:12.067+10:002017-09-03T03:09:12.067+10:00So i feel linking the extreme rainfall of a very s...<i>So i feel linking the extreme rainfall of a very slow-moving hurricane to elevated sea surface temperatures seems a bit of a stretch.</i><br /><br />You might want to rethink that, ZebM.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-73873758417597191232017-09-03T03:05:27.591+10:002017-09-03T03:05:27.591+10:00Yes i know what the terminology means. Just becaus...Yes i know what the terminology means. Just because i question your article, it doesn't mean i don't grasp anomaly data. <br />On that NOAA SST map i linked, most of the Gulf of Mexico is within the baseline 0.5 degrees Celsius. As is the Caribbean Sea ,where tropical storms usually intensify into hurricanes.<br /> So i feel linking the extreme rainfall of a very slow-moving hurricane to elevated sea surface temperatures seems a bit of a stretch. <br /> If the hurricane was moving overland at an average speed would it still break rainfall records? ZebMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-1895022240771281852017-09-03T02:59:21.620+10:002017-09-03T02:59:21.620+10:00"Sea surface temperatures in the area where H...<i>"Sea surface temperatures in the area where Harvey intensified were 0.5-1C warmer than current-day average temperatures, which translates to 1-1.5C warmer than “average” temperatures a few decades ago. That means 3-5% more moisture in the atmosphere."</i><br /><br />https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/28/climate-change-hurricane-harvey-more-deadlyJammy Dodgerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08360437479098314946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-72222847677936125192017-09-03T02:49:28.242+10:002017-09-03T02:49:28.242+10:00ZebM, it's called "warming" and it&#...ZebM, it's called "warming" and it's happening at many localities as well as for the world as a whole (global warming). (What do you think "normal" means in the context of "above normal"?)<br /><br /><i>SUMMARY: CRW's SST Anomaly is produced by subtracting the long-term mean SST (for that location in that time of year) from the current value. A positive anomaly means that the current sea surface temperature is warmer than average, and a negative anomaly means it is cooler than average. The spatial resolution is 0.5-degree (50-km), and the data and images are updated twice-weekly. </i><br /><br />https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/methodology/methodology.php#sstaSouhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-61022994667567279522017-09-03T02:30:29.334+10:002017-09-03T02:30:29.334+10:00Hmmm,
The Gulf SST at the time when Harvey was int...Hmmm,<br />The Gulf SST at the time when Harvey was intensifying were around 1 degree Celsius above normal. OK. But the SST anomaly has been around that figure for years. It isn't rising much at all. <br />It is a fact that when Harvey came ashore in Texas ,prevailing weather conditions, by chance, caused it to virtually stop moving with half of the hurricane still over the Gulf waters.So it sucked up shedloads of extra water due to this.<br /><br />https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/sst/sst.anom.gif<br />ZebMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-22090899544928866222017-09-03T01:38:47.548+10:002017-09-03T01:38:47.548+10:00@citizenschallenge
I agree. It is a non-question....@citizenschallenge<br /><br />I agree. It is a non-question. Using the contrarian words:<br /><br />1. Climate change has and always will occur. <br />2. Does climate change affect the weather? Yes.<br /><br />End of discussion!<br /><br />Jammy Dodgerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08360437479098314946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-16019001277813958892017-09-03T01:23:56.211+10:002017-09-03T01:23:56.211+10:00I'm curious why the question itself is not cal...I'm curious why the question itself is not called out for being stupid and misdirecting. Hurricanes are a "natural" part of our planet's heat distribution engine. They WILL form.<br /><br />The point that should be made over and over and over - is that we and our climate system exist within a warming system - PHYSICALLY THERE CAN BE NO WEATHER PATTERN INDEPENDENT OF THAT WARMED UP SYSTEM. ~~~<br /><br />For me its been demoralizing watching reporters and scientists continuing to soft peddle the clearly understood connections by posing stupid questions that receive inevitably stupid answers. <br /><br />Tonight listening to another round I got a vision of people desperately clinging to dreams of yesterday’s normal, like a child desperately clinging to her mother as they're being inexorably torn apart. Unfortunately, what we refuse to comprehend will harm, nay destroy all we’ve come to love about this world.<br /><br />Incidentally, about that terminology game. Can we please start being clear: Manmade global warming is what’s driving increasing climate change. citizenschallengehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04559990934735912814noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-65210535068494678232017-09-03T01:10:01.452+10:002017-09-03T01:10:01.452+10:00jazz,so I'm not the crazy one after all. : |
...jazz,so I'm not the crazy one after all. : |<br /><br /><br />"Judith Curry, ask a stupid question, expect a stupid answer! Harvey's global warming connection." (August 29, 2017)<br />http://whatsupwiththatwatts.blogspot.com/2017/08/judithcurry-asks-stupid-questions.html<br /><br />The hallmark of a great scientist is the ability to ask great questions. Questions who's pursuit leads to meaningful progress towards understanding. When it comes to our country's contentious manmade global warming discussion, it also comes down to how serious one is about asking meaningful questions that allow for meaningful constructive answers. <br /><br />Judith Curry writes, “Anyone blaming Harvey on global warming doesn’t have a leg to stand on.” (I thought she knew about climatology. Please consider.)<br /><br />* Global warming is definitely directly related to that hot Gulf of Mexico waters that fed an explosive intensification of a tropical storm.<br /><br />* Global warming is definitely directly related to the fact that the atmosphere is holding more moisture and making it available for storm systems such as Harvey to collect and dump.<br /><br />* Global warming is definitely directly related to the fact that our Jet Stream has gotten weirder and is currently causing the stalling and reversal of Harvey’s northward movement.<br /><br />* Global warming is definitely directly related to the fact that sea level is rising and thus adding substantially to damaging storm surges.<br />~~~~~<br /><br />** Global warming definitely directly related the Brown Ocean effect that continued feeding moisture into the storm after it made land fall.<br /><br />h/t to Paul Beckwith <br />https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zus0ICUvd1ccitizenschallengehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04559990934735912814noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-15260593893572343152017-09-02T19:23:54.173+10:002017-09-02T19:23:54.173+10:00Both Dr Curry and Dr Spencer put out blog posts at...Both Dr Curry and Dr Spencer put out blog posts attempting to downplay the influence of global warming on the hurricane. Same ol' same ol'.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11872802685104293884noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-83538340962133227782017-09-02T17:56:48.634+10:002017-09-02T17:56:48.634+10:00Careful your jackboot is showing...Careful your jackboot is showing...Eric Worrallhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14053132017679865559noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-2536515464327073732017-09-02T17:15:39.700+10:002017-09-02T17:15:39.700+10:00They can't help it, the deniers. It's catc...They can't help it, the deniers. It's catching, like yawning.Dennis Hornehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14578896991480042320noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-63920856536283258572017-09-02T16:26:51.936+10:002017-09-02T16:26:51.936+10:00Its not just rich people who object to paying for ...Its not just rich people who object to paying for weather disasters. The good people of Houston do, or did. They recently reelected to Congress people who voted against relief for the victims of Hurricane Sandy.Millicentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-37084405255636709482017-09-02T10:48:31.849+10:002017-09-02T10:48:31.849+10:00Roger Pielke Jr hints that he's one of those w...Roger Pielke Jr hints that he's one of those warmunist/communist/socialist types. He keeps putting up charts to say that GDP is rising faster than the cost of disasters, implying the rich who benefit will pay for it all.<br /><br />(There are flaws in his implied argument, and not just that some rich people object to paying for weather disasters that don't affect them personally.)Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-31822386905970409082017-09-02T04:21:12.281+10:002017-09-02T04:21:12.281+10:00OT but this is hilarious.
Anthony is trotting out...OT but this is hilarious.<br /><br />Anthony is trotting out a variation on the <i>corals have been around for a bejillion years so will survive a little warming'</i> myth.<br /><br />What happened to his hiatus? Anyhow he clearly needs a break to collect his marbles. <br /><br />The trigger for the post was an <a href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/09/170901093918.htm" rel="nofollow">ARC Press release</a> about a recent paper, headed 'Can corals survive climate change?'<br /><br />To which the stressed and exhausted Watts replies<br /><br />'Yes In fact, they’ve already survived millions of years of climate change.'<br /><br />And he's googled up a document from the Global Reef Project from which he picks out this quote <i>Corals are 500 million years old, and date back to the late Cambrian period, during the Paleozoic era </i><br /><br />Panic over? Sadly no, all the calcite coral species from the Cambrian are now long dead. In fact corals have suffered several extinction events since the Cambrian, not least during the Paleocene/Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). The clue is in the name, Tony. Modern Aragonite corals (Scleractinia) date from the Triassic or later.<br /><br />The funniest, funniest part of this is that the extinctions are detailed in the very <a rel="nofollow">GRP document</a> that he cited. If he had taken the trouble to read to the end he would have found this:<br /><br /><i>The climate of the globe is currently undergoing a rapid PETM-like event (a warming period), driven by greenhouse gases as in the PETM. Evidence now suggests that coral reefs will pass a point of no-return around 2040, and go into terminal decline, eventually disappearing at the end of this century. If so, based on past evidence, it is likely that many millions of years will pass before they return. </i><br /><br />Some, not me you understand, might think that to describe Anthony Watts as a dumbass is manifestly unfair to dumbasses.Phil Clarkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15744659873337514317noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-68115491655906970642017-09-02T03:59:10.399+10:002017-09-02T03:59:10.399+10:00If the climate is changing then ALL weather events...If the climate is changing then ALL weather events from an insignificant rain shower to the most powerful storm are a part of that change. The only way anyone can argue that a particular event isn't influenced by climate change is to show that the event is occurring in total isolation from the rest of our climate system or prove that no part of the climate is changing.Phttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14402320216925301686noreply@blogger.com