tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post4862955846209451018..comments2024-03-25T05:30:23.847+11:00Comments on HotWhopper: Doubling down on doozy: Anthony Watts is now denying the Little Ice AgeSouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-43231130351979759892015-09-28T12:30:52.864+10:002015-09-28T12:30:52.864+10:00Yes, as Sou notes, it is meaningful for plants/for...Yes, as Sou notes, it is meaningful for plants/forests etc.<br />But difficult to interpret in the case of human artifacts.<br /><br />1. An <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/science/still-standing-ancient-alaskan-forest-thaws-melting-glacial-tomb-4B11215106" rel="nofollow">ancient forest has thawed</a> from under a melting glacier in Alaska and is now exposed to the world for the first time in more than 1,000 years.<br /><br />2. In Sverdrup Pass, central Ellesmere Island (The Canadian Arctic region), <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CB0QFjAAahUKEwjNwP3fv5jIAhUVVI4KHWh0C_I&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pnas.org%2Fcontent%2F110%2F24%2F9839.abstract&usg=AFQjCNELVS8abZOj-XZVRh5amKUy6I-P6w&sig2=rsqK6HukocWdwCrIXiWioA" rel="nofollow">rapid glacier retreat </a>is exposing intact plant communities whose radiocarbon dates demonstrate entombment during the Little Ice Age (1550–1850 AD).La Farge 2013 <br /><br />3. The rate of retreat of the Agassiz Glacier (Western Canada) was <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S027737911200306X" rel="nofollow">greater in 1930</a> than today by a factor of 5 (Figure 8) <br /><br />4. But human artifacts found in front of glaciers are perhaps a little more difficult to assess. (The quote below is from an interesting article in the BBC News)<br /><br /><i>"Glaciers advance and retreat naturally," he says. "So at the top it's cold, snow falls. And then lower down, the ice melts. The glaciers flow naturally downhill, which means that everything that falls into a crevasse… later it appears in the glacier tongue."<br /><br />"The icy world up there is terribly complex - just as complex as the landmass under with all its ridges, gulleys and crevices. We simply never know where and when ancient frozen remains are going to appear."<br /><br />The normal time span for anything trapped in an Alpine glacier to be washed out is, he suggests, between 20 and 50 years, though it can take up to 100 years. The recent examples of Conville, Kobayashi and Oikawa are broadly line with this - it was 34 years in one case, and 44 in the other.<br /><br />When glacial archaeologists recover ancient bodies or artefacts from the mountains it's usually in areas where the ice is not moving, either because the ground is not steep enough, or the ice patch is not large and heavy enough.</i><br /><a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-34184564" rel="nofollow">The coming of the glacier men </a>By Imogen Foulkes BBC News <br /><br />markehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06387629308058823374noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-39671110217391506212015-09-28T11:11:43.355+10:002015-09-28T11:11:43.355+10:00Raymond, I didn't discuss the results, focusin...Raymond, I didn't discuss the results, focusing more on the silliness of Anthony Watts putting this forward as if it were global. There are a few things that would be worth looking at, such as the big drop you noticed. It happened just before the instrumental (regional) charts come in, so there's no way (looking just at the charts) to know if it was real and regional. It seems too late in the century to be the "year without a summer" influence - and I don't know if that affected that part of the world in any case. (The data in the chart above is "decadally resolved".)Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-91158498286098853192015-09-28T08:22:43.785+10:002015-09-28T08:22:43.785+10:00Thanks for the pointer to the Esper et al paper, w...Thanks for the pointer to the Esper et al paper, which is very interesting.<br /><br />Something of which I'd like to have seen more discussion is the profound cratering of temperature around 1880-1890 in Esper's Fig 5a. The excursion is around 1.5-2 degrees, which is huge even for a regional value. At the very least it reinforces the idea that this site is not representative of global means. But we know that already, so that's uninteresting.<br /><br />Two possibilities come to mind: either there was a sharp regional cold snap during those decades, or there's something a bit wonky with their methodology. Have you read anything about a known deep freeze in that region in the late 19th century?<br /><br />There was Krakatoa in 1883 but even the d13C method shouldn't have smeared out the eruption so greatly as to show a multi-decadal response of that magnitude (that is, if the signal is smeared in time the amplitude should be smaller).Raymond Arritthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04648714314250278353noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-42849451971074864752015-09-28T08:19:47.359+10:002015-09-28T08:19:47.359+10:00This comment has been removed by the author.Raymond Arritthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04648714314250278353noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-81635496713304055852015-09-27T23:13:26.139+10:002015-09-27T23:13:26.139+10:00I'm guessing the "logic" is based on...I'm guessing the "logic" is based on the assumption of a direct linear relationship between the location of the edge of the glacier and the local temperature. So if it's x degrees today and glacier edge is here, then obviously (!) when the glacier edge was higher up the mountain, the temperature must have been x+, and when the glacier edge was further down the mountain, the temperature must have been x- So it must have been hotter in the past when the glacier edge was further up the mountain and before it grew and covered up this stuff we're finding on the ground. Now excuse me while I go untangle my brain. Ouch.FLwolverinehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15714397414422766313noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-16622759021755651762015-09-27T21:47:03.387+10:002015-09-27T21:47:03.387+10:00I was thinking more about this limits how hot it c...I was thinking more about this limits how hot it could have gotten in the distant past if we have still got ice cores from that period.Millicentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-62785506709006742662015-09-27T17:50:17.794+10:002015-09-27T17:50:17.794+10:00I'm not sure of the reasoning there either, Jo...I'm not sure of the reasoning there either, John. The only time that would hold true would be in the case of things being exposed on the ground underneath. Like the study of ancient mosses that were revealed, in some work that was publicised a couple of years ago.<br /><br />http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2013/05/anthony-watts-claims-hes-won-battle-of.html<br /><br />Otherwise, snow falls on the glacier and covers up whatever's there until the surface melts and exposes it. As you say, that isn't an indication that it was warmer when the object first fell onto the glacier.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-34503534253449666912015-09-27T13:02:08.274+10:002015-09-27T13:02:08.274+10:00I think it will be a while yet before snow stops a...I think it will be a while yet before snow stops accumulating in Central Greenland and Central Antarctica. But we are currently collecting all of the data that we glean from ice cores with instruments to greater accurately than ice cores so maybe there isn't as much need for them going forward.riveratnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-31007817179429307172015-09-27T09:12:31.545+10:002015-09-27T09:12:31.545+10:00the logic really puzzles me, "if the glaciers...the logic really puzzles me, "if the glaciers are melting and revealing things from the past, then it must have been hotter then than now" john byattnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-11070296809865863002015-09-27T03:53:56.635+10:002015-09-27T03:53:56.635+10:00I'm wondering how much hotter than today it co...I'm wondering how much hotter than today it could get and there be any ice cores to analyse. Isn't there some point at which any ice formed in the Arctic winter gets lost in the next summer?Millicentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-13458080547845486932015-09-27T00:39:31.426+10:002015-09-27T00:39:31.426+10:00Thanks Victor. Fixed. I'll not be surprised if...Thanks Victor. Fixed. I'll not be surprised if people pick up other mistakes. I still keep finding them myself, too. I did so much background reading that I confused even myself :)<br /><br />I'm thinking that there are probably some other things in the paper that are worth a second look. I'd have thought the LIA would appear sooner, for example, just going by PAGES2k.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-43576063052139862662015-09-27T00:29:36.862+10:002015-09-27T00:29:36.862+10:00"The map at the bottom of Figure 4 also shows..."<i>The map at the bottom of Figure 4 also shows how summer temperatures in Western Europe have increased over the period 1901 to 2010.</i>"<br /><br />The values are about the same size, but the Figure 4b shows correlations not temperature increases, according to the caption. Somewhat surprising that the correlation is not highest near the star, that also made me confused at first.Victor Venemahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02842816166712285801noreply@blogger.com