tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post3999941701771382681..comments2024-03-25T05:30:23.847+11:00Comments on HotWhopper: HadCRUT4 - equalling (slightly besting?) the hottest year with a lie from Anthony Watts at WUWTSouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comBlogger28125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-22124048547188641912015-01-30T12:26:42.584+11:002015-01-30T12:26:42.584+11:00Brilliant - looks superb :)Brilliant - looks superb :)Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-36788491594342752552015-01-30T11:37:15.587+11:002015-01-30T11:37:15.587+11:00I feel funny using your blog to pimp my stuff, but...I feel funny using your blog to pimp my stuff, but since you asked:<br /><br />I'm working on Imaginary Spaces (link above) -- an app to let anyone design architecture for work or play, and 3d print them. We're hoping to be on ipad/android soon (just takes jumping through hoops), there's a free demo available on mac/windows now.<br /><br />And we're doing workshops at makerspaces for kids using our app, to teach them 3d modeling ideas, as per our facebook post here:<br />https://www.facebook.com/imgspc/posts/720244434762486<br />If anyone wants to try to replicate this in their town, drop us a line (info@imaginary-spaces.com)<br /><br />Nothing to do directly with climate, though I do wonder whether the advent of 3d printing might reduce the number of widget-laden ships crossing the Pacific.numerobishttp://imaginary-spaces.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-6998881580906740982015-01-29T22:16:51.982+11:002015-01-29T22:16:51.982+11:00David,
With GISS, for example, December was a mid...David, <br />With GISS, for example, December was a mid-ranking month for 2014.Nick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-43597790376535088382015-01-29T21:29:41.861+11:002015-01-29T21:29:41.861+11:00ice age! ice age! iiiiiice aaaaaaaaage!
[anti-P...ice age! ice age! iiiiiice aaaaaaaaage!<br /><br />[anti-Poe: ;-) ]lignenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-53182760958189104892015-01-29T19:14:07.816+11:002015-01-29T19:14:07.816+11:00thanks Nick. Does "just like December" m...thanks Nick. Does "just like December" mean hot? I can't tell from the +0.225 so far.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12083190014669867976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-28063253875853404322015-01-29T17:01:37.916+11:002015-01-29T17:01:37.916+11:00Good for you. Best of luck. (Care to share?)Good for you. Best of luck. (Care to share?)Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-14212184112971556222015-01-29T14:56:10.250+11:002015-01-29T14:56:10.250+11:00I've been lurking! But life has gotten very b...I've been lurking! But life has gotten very busy of late (my startup is starting to actually start up).numerobisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-29097611460094242782015-01-29T12:47:25.243+11:002015-01-29T12:47:25.243+11:00Thanks, much better.Thanks, much better.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11552461190113661645noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-90318182141560998132015-01-29T12:22:51.301+11:002015-01-29T12:22:51.301+11:00Try it now, Harry. I changed it when Numerobis was...Try it now, Harry. I changed it when Numerobis was having problems commenting, but they haven't been here lately and, anyway, it caused more problems than it solved.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-21107359326770201662015-01-29T12:11:48.800+11:002015-01-29T12:11:48.800+11:00Have I missed something? On this blog I used to be...Have I missed something? On this blog I used to be able to reply to comments, or to just follow all comments without commenting myself.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11552461190113661645noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-55633507038133812882015-01-28T21:47:50.801+11:002015-01-28T21:47:50.801+11:00Oh yes and of course this on the record...
John Cl...Oh yes and of course this on the record...<br />John Clarke: Mr Wilson. Do you know who is the current 100 metres all-comers Australian record holder?Mr Wilson: Can I guess?John Clarke: There's not much point in guessing.Mr Wilson: Is he an African American?John Clarke: He's not an African American, no.Mr Wilson: Is he that Canadian from Jamaica?John Clarke: No, he's not a Canadian from Jamaica.Mr Wilson: I give up.John Clarke: The 100-metre record in this country, Mr Wilson, is currently held by Bryan.Mr Wilson: Bryan?Bryan Dawe: Yes.Mr Wilson: Congratulations.Bryan Dawe: Thank you.John Clarke: A new mark, Mr Wilson, set at a blistering session last Wednesday. I wish you'd been there. We were down there and we had a bet.Mr Wilson: Was this wind assisted?John Clarke: No, and we'd had a couple, and in my view Bryan is not in quite the nick he was in at the same stage of last season.<br /><br />R.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-67557329275620102572015-01-28T21:31:14.051+11:002015-01-28T21:31:14.051+11:00I think the deniers are tring to invoke memories o...I think the deniers are tring to invoke memories of John Clarke:<br /><br />John Clarke: I'm a humble man, Mr Copperfield, but I refuse to be remembered as he who ran the 100 metres at the Sydney Olympics over 94 metres<br /><br />To non Aussies look up "The Games" on ABC television.<br /><br />R the anon.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-57115032354479779362015-01-28T20:56:06.566+11:002015-01-28T20:56:06.566+11:00If you write a publication, it is good practice no...If you write a publication, it is good practice not to give more significant digits as the errors allow. In this case the error is mainly because the stations only sample the surface temperature and interpolation is necessary. This error is about 0.1°C. <br /><br />Thus all groups give more significant digits than one would in a publication. That is no problem what soever, because this is data, not a publication. People perform computations on this data and it would be a pity if there would be any reductions in accuracy in those computations due to premature rounding of the data by the data providers. <br /><br />For many computations this is not important, but for some it might be. It is thus a compromise between accuracy for as much applications as possible versus the size of the dataset. Given that for small stations datasets, data storage and transfer is almost for free nowadays, people may tend to add more digits nowadays.<br /><br />A good example of a computation that needs many digits would be the application mentioned in the post, the computation of rankings. 2014 is the warmest year in the HadCRUT dataset and if you are interested in the statistics of rankings it would be a pity not to have unique rankings, that would make the analysis harder.<br /><br />There is probably still data coming in and data that was transferred in near real time is still being updated by data that is quality controlled by the weather services. Thus the values can still change. If in summer the average of 2014 is still the highest, I have no problem calling it a record. The temperature record over 2014 is the only case I know where all of a sudden people claim a need to take uncertainties into account before ranking. Normally <a href="http://variable-variability.blogspot.com/2015/01/we-have-new-record.html" rel="nofollow">the record is simply the highest value</a>, like I wrote in my last blog post.<br /><br />Excerpt: <i>Last September a new marathon world record was set in Berlin. Dennis Kimetto set the world record with a time of 2:02:57, while the number two of the same race, Emmanuel Mutai, set the world second best time with 2:03:13. Two records in one race! Clearly the conditions were ideal (the temperature, the wind, the flat track profile). Had other good runners participated in this race, they may well have been faster.<br /><br />Should we call it a record? According to the traditional definition, Kimetto run fastest and has a record.<br /><br />According to the new definition, we cannot be sure that Kimetto is really the fastest marathon runner on the world and we do not know what the world record is. Still newspapers around the world simply wrote about the record as if it were a fact.</i><br /><br /><br />Victor Venemahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02842816166712285801noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-3086097596511655732015-01-28T16:42:47.265+11:002015-01-28T16:42:47.265+11:00This site also gives a daily reanalysis:
http://c...This site also gives a daily reanalysis:<br /><br />http://cci-reanalyzer.org/David Appellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03318269033139447591noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-28547125419676044742015-01-28T15:47:42.365+11:002015-01-28T15:47:42.365+11:00On Nick's site you can track the month as it u...On Nick's site you can track the month as it unfolds. It's a cool feature. Well, except for Jan 2015, which to me looks hot.JCHnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-5046695867746902082015-01-28T14:07:29.241+11:002015-01-28T14:07:29.241+11:00Nick, I understand how the measurement error is mu...Nick, I understand how the measurement error is much reduced -- it goes like 1/sqrt(number_of_measurements).<br /><br />I admit I don't know the particulars of their data model. But if HadCRUT calculates to 3 significant figures, why don't GISTEMP and NOAA? Surely they want to squeeze all the sign digits they can get out of the data....<br /><br />And, is there any point to calculating to 0.001 C? I can't see any reason why the third digit matters. It's not like this data point can be compared to some theoretical prediction....David Appellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03318269033139447591noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-90467314260422593932015-01-28T13:13:00.271+11:002015-01-28T13:13:00.271+11:00DA,
"why can they give 3 significant figures,...DA,<br /><i>"why can they give 3 significant figures, yet GISTEMP and NOAA only 2, when they are working from the same raw data"</i><br /><br />Well, I <a href="http://www.moyhu.blogspot.com.au/2015/01/temperatures-2014-summary.html" rel="nofollow">predicted it</a> (at short range) to 3 figs :)<br /><br /><a href="ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/mlost/operational/products/aravg.ann.land_ocean.90S.90N.v3.5.4.201412.asc" rel="nofollow">Here</a> is NOAA giving 6 figs.<br /><br />It really doesn't matter. People say you shouldn't give more sig figs than the accuracy for a measurement. But this is not a measurement; it is a calculated average of more than a million measurements. Measurement error (or at least its random part) is much reduced. Their uncertainty is based on a model of what would happen if you measured differently.<br /><br />It's not splitting hairs. The advice re measurement is on the basis that you don't have <i>any</i> basis for the third fig. But here you do - the 0.563 is a well characterised number (which is why I mentioned my prediction). They acknowledge that it should be seen as a sample of a variable population.<br />Nick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-52783737253040572322015-01-28T11:25:18.481+11:002015-01-28T11:25:18.481+11:00Their model is quite different to GISS's, Davi...Their model is quite different to GISS's, David. Nick or Victor might be able to shed more light. You'll notice that their report acknowledges the confidence limits. I'd go by that if you're uncomfortable using the data.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-51430344209434440512015-01-28T11:07:27.827+11:002015-01-28T11:07:27.827+11:00I wish HadCRUT4 would stop presenting global avera...I wish HadCRUT4 would stop presenting global averages to 3 significant figures. It's not very convincing.... and why can they give 3 significant figures, yet GISTEMP and NOAA only 2, when they are working from the same raw data? David Appellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03318269033139447591noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-74374557185103884712015-01-28T11:06:50.146+11:002015-01-28T11:06:50.146+11:00Much like December Nick? With GISTemp, December wa...Much like December Nick? With GISTemp, December was the second hottest December ever :)<br /><br />(Fourth hottest in HadCRUT4)Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-36673851060046469632015-01-28T11:06:40.238+11:002015-01-28T11:06:40.238+11:00When multiple datasets have the same year as the h...When multiple datasets have the same year as the hottest, doesn't that increase the odds that 2014 was the hottest?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-57684050705470188732015-01-28T10:51:16.142+11:002015-01-28T10:51:16.142+11:00"How is January 2015 looking?"
I keep a ...<i>"How is January 2015 looking?"</i><br />I keep a NCEP/NCAR reanalysis tally <a href="http://www.moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#NCAR" rel="nofollow">here</a>. The first ten days were very globally cool, then very warm, easing off lately. On average so far, much like December.<br />Nick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-31447346252151683622015-01-28T10:23:51.943+11:002015-01-28T10:23:51.943+11:00Now that the deniers have accepted the concept of ...Now that the deniers have accepted the concept of confidence limits, I look forward to their acceptance that their beloved "pause" is not statistically significant eitherEntropic mannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-72071418970387839012015-01-28T10:15:20.905+11:002015-01-28T10:15:20.905+11:00It's odd that the denial-o-sphere had the oppo...It's odd that the denial-o-sphere had the opposite reaction back when NASA made a tiny adjustment to the U.S. annual temperature record which resulted in 1934 becoming a fraction of a degree warmer than 1998. <br /><br />The results of the adjustment were:<br />Before: 1934 and 1998 in a statistical tie, with 1998 edging out 1934.<br />After: 1934 and 1998 in a statistical tie, with 1934 edging out 1998.<br /><br />No objections to fractions of a degree back then -- the cry was "NASA admits that 1998 wasn't the warmest year!"spilgardnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-8145583996458126712015-01-28T10:07:14.837+11:002015-01-28T10:07:14.837+11:00I don't know about elsewhere, but it's bee...I don't know about elsewhere, but it's been a relatively cool January here in south eastern Australia. At the Australian Open this year they are wearing jumpers - unlike last year when the players were collapsing in the heat.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.com