tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post3722705098435264003..comments2024-03-25T05:30:23.847+11:00Comments on HotWhopper: NOAA and temperature data - it must be a conspiracy. Souhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comBlogger30125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-76890586647209055932016-09-22T20:56:26.298+10:002016-09-22T20:56:26.298+10:00!!WilliamKinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11551278829221366384noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-37799161392552093312016-07-12T12:34:37.876+10:002016-07-12T12:34:37.876+10:00Does nurse know you're out of restraints and b...Does nurse know you're out of restraints and back at the keyboard again, Grey?billnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-25291857998918974442016-07-12T07:06:32.228+10:002016-07-12T07:06:32.228+10:00Which fascist government would that be? I thought...Which fascist government would that be? I thought we were warmunists.Millicentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-10997953820709403582016-07-12T05:12:44.117+10:002016-07-12T05:12:44.117+10:00Fascist government sycophants. Toe the party line ...Fascist government sycophants. Toe the party line or be demonized and labeled by alarmist puppets. Sad bunch of hate and fear mongers. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04835345234979449459noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-83882346365629112712014-07-03T03:34:32.364+10:002014-07-03T03:34:32.364+10:00One wonders, if the warming were fraudulent, why w...One wonders, if the warming were fraudulent, why we see this apparent pause in global warming. It should be easy for this global conspiracy of thousands of scientists to add exactly 0.02°C to the data every year. Even if these scientists were as stupid as WUWT and Co. assumes, they should be able to perform such basic operations like addition and multiplication. Victor Venemahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02842816166712285801noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-57664104873812914522014-07-03T03:17:26.840+10:002014-07-03T03:17:26.840+10:00I couldn't agree more, KR. There was one comme...I couldn't agree more, KR. There was one comment out of more than 100 that pointed out what I found. To no avail. All the rest were wailing and gnashing of dentures (or gums) and mutterings about Lysenko and fraudulent warming etc etc. <br /><br />Meanwhile, Anthony's got what he wants. He's delighted that his conspiratorial fantasies have got the attention of Matt Drudge (who I gather appeals to right wing tabloid readers) and garnered him lots of extra page clicks to fill up his piggy bank.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-22385022741792234522014-07-03T01:06:21.348+10:002014-07-03T01:06:21.348+10:00When Watts says "...what NCDC is doing here i...When Watts says <i>"...what NCDC is doing here is mathematically favoring the signal of the crappiest stations..."</i> he's claiming that the good stations are preferentially dropped in favor of the poor ones. <br /><br />Again, <b>something for which he has absolutely no evidence</b>. I have <i>(several times)</i> on WUWT threads challenged Watts to substantiate that the siting issues he keeps ranting about represent an ongoing shift, an ongoing <b>bias</b> towards warming, rather than a higher variance with no shift in mean - and in every case he's failed to support his claims. <br /><br />Meta-discussion: All of these objections to infilling, to homogenization, to corrections for known errors, seem to come down to a fundamental issue of <i>distrust</i> - that Watts and the commenters on his site simply don't _trust_ the <i>guv'ment</i> or "dem ivery tower folks". Because anything they say simply <a href="http://www.psychology.uwa.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/2523540/LskyetalRecursiveFury4UWA.pdf" rel="nofollow">"Must Be Wrong" [MbW]</a>. That the official data has to be a distortion, because, you know, 9/11 and the birth certificate and <a href="http://www.reptoids.com/" rel="nofollow">Reptoids</a>. <br /><br />Given the self-sealing [SS] nature of such conspiracy ideation, the hard-core deniers will never be convinced. KRnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-80354650013014859152014-07-01T15:28:18.700+10:002014-07-01T15:28:18.700+10:00I've added an update to this.
Nick Stokes of ...I've added an update to this.<br /><br /><a href="http://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/2014/06/infilling-climatology-and-anomalies.html" rel="nofollow">Nick Stokes of Moyhu</a> has written two articles that demonstrate what would happen if Anthony Watts had his way and stations with no data were ignored completely. See <a href="http://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/2014/06/infilling-climatology-and-anomalies.html" rel="nofollow">here</a> and <a href="http://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/2014/07/infilling-graphics-version.html" rel="nofollow">here</a>. Anthony Watts might change his tune if he read them.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-64223016695876223132014-07-01T08:00:25.191+10:002014-07-01T08:00:25.191+10:00yeah, but with 2014 heading ever further into pote...yeah, but with 2014 heading ever further into potential-record-breaker territory, the "pause" is looking increasingly shaky. cue a few more years of "surface temperature records are fraudulent" before their usual service of "no warming since 2013" can resume.<br /><br />we can only hope that the media are a little less credulous this time round the idiocy merry-go-round.<br />lignenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-38182848553512930152014-06-30T08:12:03.500+10:002014-06-30T08:12:03.500+10:00Well, hey, it's like denier central. I spotted...Well, hey, it's like denier central. I spotted the following on the speaker list:<br /><br />Tim Ball, Joe Bastardi, Sonja Boehmer-Christiansen, Robert Carter, Joe D’Aleo, Don Easterbrook, Myron Ebell, Willis Eschenbach, Tom Harris, Tony Heller (AKA Steve Goddard), Craig Idso, Jay Lehr, Craig Loehle, Jennifer Marohasy, Patrick Michaels, Christopher Monckton, Marc Morano, Nils-Axel Mörner, Dana Rohrabacher, Fred Singer, Willie Soon, Roy Spencer, and Anthony Watts<br /><br />Non-scientists notwithstanding, I reckon that's most of the 3%... except for Lindzen. Perhaps he's otherwise engaged.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-73709451464010345472014-06-30T07:40:12.833+10:002014-06-30T07:40:12.833+10:00So first thing I did today is read all the article...So first thing I did today is read all the articles I could find that Nick wrote about TOBS. Very informative. Got it. Now how many of Watts' minions would/will do that? Not many, I'd venture. And there's the difference between folks who are genuinely inquisitive about how the world around them works, and folks who choose to let their ideology call the shots instead.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-68796079493682211282014-06-30T06:05:17.013+10:002014-06-30T06:05:17.013+10:00Good point about BEST. It clearly shows there is n...Good point about BEST. It clearly shows there is no science that will change the minds of hard core deniers -- they will ignore it, or denigrate it, or whatever it takes. They simple are not operating in a rational realm.David Appellhttp://davidappell.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-4103576224307569772014-06-30T06:02:08.478+10:002014-06-30T06:02:08.478+10:00If 80% of the station data are wrong, as they clai...If 80% of the station data are wrong, as they claim, then no conclusions can be drawn about a possible "pause."<br /><br />They can't have it both ways. David Appellhttp://davidappell.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-7719373709035774712014-06-30T05:30:50.599+10:002014-06-30T05:30:50.599+10:00What I'm noticing about all this is despite th...What I'm noticing about all this is despite the Berkeley Earth project that was supposed to resolve the whole station bias, urban heat island nonsense Watts et al are behaving like the work was never done....and where Watts goes others uncritically repeat the nonsense.Dave123http://www.skepticalscience.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-29159844588121124532014-06-30T03:09:12.887+10:002014-06-30T03:09:12.887+10:00Judith Curry: "Who do I include in the techni...Judith Curry: "Who do I include in the technical skeptical blogosphere? Tamino, Moyhu, Blackboard, Watts, Goddard, ClimateAudit, Jeff Id, Roman M. There are others, but the main discriminating factor is that they do data analysis, and audit the data analysis of others."<br /><br />Is JC having a snarky dig at true-skeptic Tamino by grouping with pseudo-skeptical Watts, Goddard, CA etc? Possibly this slur has something to do with Tamino's very effective statistical skewering of misleading JC's senate testimony, which unlike many attempts actually got under her skin.<br />Paul Price @swimsurenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-41519241868758232742014-06-30T02:23:20.070+10:002014-06-30T02:23:20.070+10:00To give folks a good "seat of the pants"...To give folks a good "seat of the pants" visual appreciation of the robustness of the global temperature record (as well as a nice appreciation of the silliness of deniers' obsessions with "data adjustments"), I've uploaded an image file to: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B0pXYsr8qYS6TmlPaGxEX2N4VjA/edit?usp=sharing<br /><br />The image contains two XY plots. The upper plot shows how global-temperature results produced from just 30 long-record stations scattered around the world, compare with the official NASA "meteorological stations index" (which uses data from *thousands* of stations). <br /><br />30-station raw data results are plotted in green; 30-station adjusted data results are plotted in blue. The official NASA results are plotted in red.<br /><br />The algorithm used to generate the 30-station results is pretty much a straight average of the station temperature anomalies (the station distribution is so scattered and sparse that area-weighting hardly matters).<br /><br />Note how similar all three temperature curves are. Although the raw/adjusted 30-station results are considerably "noisier" than the NASA results are, all 3 temperature curves show very similar long-term trends.<br /><br />The lower plot shows how many of the 30 stations actually reported data for any given year. (Note: Those numbers can be fractional; if a station reports data for 6 months of a given year, I count it as "half a station" for that year). Due to data gaps, etc., in the temperature record, the plotted results are derived from *fewer* than 30 stations for most years.<br /><br />I'll let folks draw their own conclusions about the validity of deniers' criticisms of "data adjustments" and their obsessions with data at this-or-that station.<br /><br />A final note: this is simple "seat of the pants" analysis that any competent programmer/analyst could knock out in a very short period of time. The fact that Watts and Co never figured this out in their many *years* of bitching about temperature data should tell you more than you need to know about their competence.<br />caerbannoghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03896552738444745753noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-76584816695205002142014-06-30T02:20:57.676+10:002014-06-30T02:20:57.676+10:00[citation needed][citation needed]numerobisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-70478775828489040042014-06-30T00:58:06.388+10:002014-06-30T00:58:06.388+10:00When people *lie*, like Goddard, they shouldn'...When people *lie*, like Goddard, they shouldn't get to keep their blogging alias. Now that we know his real name (Tony Heller), that name should be associated with his pronouncements. Otherwise, it comes across that Heller isn't responsible for the accuracy of Goddard's claims.PLnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-18830363220376950302014-06-29T22:11:46.054+10:002014-06-29T22:11:46.054+10:00Filling missing data by interpolation is completel...Filling missing data by interpolation is completely standard and a nice service of NCDC to its users. The values are marked as such. Thus if your problem does not need it, you can remove the filled values. Or if you have an interpolation method that is better suited to your problem you can redo it yourself.<br /><br />The term zombie stations for innocent infilling unintentionally funny, but It guess the gullible pseudo-sceptics will love it.Victor Venemahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02842816166712285801noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-69966812090359428592014-06-29T21:49:18.240+10:002014-06-29T21:49:18.240+10:00LOL. Not quite 180°, but hopefully enough to smoot...LOL. Not quite 180°, but hopefully enough to smooth things over in time for the big shindig in Las Vegas: <a href="http://climateconference.heartland.org/speakers/" rel="nofollow">Heartland's 9th CC conference</a>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-1787962157611221122014-06-29T21:18:49.976+10:002014-06-29T21:18:49.976+10:00Judith Curry shows another face on twitter.
Judit...Judith Curry shows another face on twitter.<br /><br />Judith Curry @curryja: "<a href="https://twitter.com/curryja/status/482971995806498816" rel="nofollow">Several bugs in NOAA's processing uncovered from this, which NOAA will acknowledge next week. Not of huge significance tho</a>"<br /><br />Judith Curry @curryja: "<a href="https://twitter.com/curryja/status/483006570876243968" rel="nofollow">I agree what Goddard did to the data was bogus, I say this in my post. This is not the concern raised in my post</a>"<br /><br />That more or less says that her post was not interesting, just suggestive.Victor Venemahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02842816166712285801noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-62467216010428955282014-06-29T21:13:03.598+10:002014-06-29T21:13:03.598+10:00Exactly, there must be infilling. It is not a cont...Exactly, there must be infilling. It is not a controversial concept. I struggle to imagine any other possible way to make an estimate of temperature in a region.<br /><br />Presumably what these deniers are thinking is that if they only accept the temperature is valid in the singularity of that thermometer we can postulate that there are all sort of temperature spikes everywhere else so they can argue the temperature is whatever they want it to be wherever they want. (And still argue the thermometers don't work!)<br /><br />Oh, hang on. That is what they do, isn't it?<br /> Jammy Dodgernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-7947959936164939402014-06-29T21:02:50.745+10:002014-06-29T21:02:50.745+10:00There aren't weather stations every sq km in A...There aren't weather stations every sq km in Australia, but the Bureau is still able to produce charts like <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/index.shtml#tabs=Tracker&tracker=trend-maps" rel="nofollow">this one</a> and <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=T&level=2m&tz=AEDT&area=Au&model=CG&chartSubmit=Refresh+View" rel="nofollow">this one</a>.<br /><br />There are (at least) two issues from what I've picked up. And IIRC you've done quite a bit more work than me on the temperature record, FP, so correct me if I'm wrong. One is being able to keep a record of temperature and temperature trends on a local, regional, national and global basis. The other is what a particular weather agency does when a weather station in missing data or reporting inaccurate data. The former issue isn't dependent on any single weather station. On the second matter, the way gaps and incongruities are treated probably depends on historical treatment and the needs of people who use the data. I'd not think that the opinions of denier bloggers would rate too highly when agencies determine priorities and practices based on user preferences.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-29526225867440781712014-06-29T20:46:32.344+10:002014-06-29T20:46:32.344+10:00Thanks, Nick. Fixed the article.Thanks, Nick. Fixed the article.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-20571918984401411862014-06-29T20:46:26.219+10:002014-06-29T20:46:26.219+10:00surely there is infilling all over the us/world. T...surely there is infilling all over the us/world. There is not a station every sq mm so all those other 10^99 sq mm must be infill data.<br />If one station goes down then there is fractionally more infilling - that is allthefordprefecthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07210786222021457913noreply@blogger.com