tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post2728783321185830937..comments2024-03-25T05:30:23.847+11:00Comments on HotWhopper: Desperate Deniers Part 8: Conman Anthony Watts goes for broke at WUWTSouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comBlogger30125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-92122382792090932702016-06-19T17:05:03.638+10:002016-06-19T17:05:03.638+10:00BTP. Better Trolls Please.BTP. Better Trolls Please.billnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-14083746705127974022016-06-19T15:53:30.100+10:002016-06-19T15:53:30.100+10:00I expect when you watched Godzilla you thought it ...I expect when you watched Godzilla you thought it was a documentary and didn't spot any errors at all.Jammy Dodgerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08360437479098314946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-46361506361227533322016-06-19T15:50:59.910+10:002016-06-19T15:50:59.910+10:00One of the five telltale techniques of climate sci...One of the <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2015/07/22/opinions/cook-techniques-climate-change-denial/" rel="nofollow">five telltale techniques</a> of climate science denial is <a href="http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Argument_from_incredulity" rel="nofollow">the logical fallacy</a>.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-51715360976239504082016-06-19T15:39:42.645+10:002016-06-19T15:39:42.645+10:00Whoever wrote this blog is a fool. To defend Al Go...Whoever wrote this blog is a fool. To defend Al Gore's ridiculous movie by saying there are only 9 errors for every zillions true facts. Good god, what a fool. I watched that movie, thought it was science fiction on the level of Godzilla. Morganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05389922400894180469noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-86618784230239320452016-01-30T10:15:31.652+11:002016-01-30T10:15:31.652+11:00Aussies should remember 'How do you create a s...Aussies should remember 'How do you create a small business? Give Warwick Fairfax a large one."billnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-36985625701763599382016-01-30T02:01:11.154+11:002016-01-30T02:01:11.154+11:00a billionaire was once ask "what is the easie...a billionaire was once ask "what is the easiest why to make a small fortune" <br /><br />he replied "start with a large one"Tadaaahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07736188830660481871noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-74848540787456011722016-01-29T22:10:03.350+11:002016-01-29T22:10:03.350+11:00"This has to be classy blog given that Russel..."This has to be classy blog given that Russell Seitz dispenses his pearls of wisdom here."<br /><br />Sou can't choose who comments here, as your presence demonstrates. But Sou has been making unkind remarks that I would have thought any WUWT fan would hasten to 'correct'. Your silence on that speaks volumes even if what you do choose to post is remarkably sterile.Millicentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-81091086569521535082016-01-29T21:48:12.209+11:002016-01-29T21:48:12.209+11:00Not to forget that Trump inherited a pile of dolla...Not to forget that Trump inherited a pile of dollars (so didn't have to struggle) and four of his businesses have gone bankrupt (though he used legally protected his personal wealth) which makes one wonder why anyone would trust him with the nation's wealth.Catmandohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12313870265499015076noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-54342022570549466392016-01-29T17:37:26.768+11:002016-01-29T17:37:26.768+11:00Yep, Trump himself predicted he'd be a hit wi...Yep, Trump himself predicted he'd be a hit with the Right Wing Authoritarian set years ago. <br /><br />Oh, and stupid people, of course.billnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-22189326437128940522016-01-29T17:34:32.751+11:002016-01-29T17:34:32.751+11:00Well, there you go. Another example of the double ...Well, there you go. Another example of the double standards of deniers.<br /><br />That comment is in relation to the one in the article, where I noticed that gallopingcamel wrote:<br /><br /><i>January 25, 2016 at 8:17 pm<br />Why are people who lie about climate such as Al Gore and Bill Nye rich while I have to work my butt off to put food on the table?<br />It may have something to do with the elites who control both political parties so you can bet that I will vote for someone who run the USA for the benefit of “The People” rather than bankers. </i><br /><br />Neither Bill Nye or Al Gore make it onto the Forbes 400 list, while <a href="http://www.forbes.com/forbes-400/list/3/#version:static" rel="nofollow">Trump is #121 at an insane $4.5 billion</a>. (Al Gore is only worth <a href="http://www.therichest.com/celebnetworth/politician/democrat/al-gore-net-worth/" rel="nofollow">$300m</a> and Bill Nye <a href="http://www.therichest.com/celebnetworth/celeb/actors/bill-nye-net-worth/" rel="nofollow">a "piddly" $6.5m</a> :).<br /><br />If you're a rich elite and a denier liar you're okay in poor struggling gallopingcamel's book. <br /><br />Deniers worship money not science, and have upside-down values - if you can call valuing immorality a "value". Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-20336618235841035492016-01-29T16:52:13.890+11:002016-01-29T16:52:13.890+11:00This has to be classy blog given that Russell Seit...This has to be classy blog given that Russell Seitz dispenses his pearls of wisdom here.<br /><br />In the comments above someone asks:<br />"I wonder if gallopingcamel would vote for Donald Trump?"<br /><br />Yes I would vote for the Donald but he is not the only one I could support:<br />https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2016/01/27/ambush-averted/#comment-570265gallopingcamelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08490747443886030893noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-35804685052817825602016-01-28T16:04:53.657+11:002016-01-28T16:04:53.657+11:00Russell,
My housemate was right, I really don'...Russell,<br /><br />My housemate was right, I really don't want to drop it, dammit all.<br /><br />Clearly we have a PR problem with the likes of the WHUTTers, and just as clearly nothing short of Armageddon is going to convince them ... if then. Maybe better PR convinces more of the undecideds, and that's as good an argument as I can think of for reducing hyperbole and emotional appeals and tightening up the scientific quality of the reporting and op-eds.<br /><br />I've mentioned over at Eli's a time or two before (ATTP's as well) that I think the main reason policy implementation has languished comes down to pro-mitigation politicians who are still engaged in politics not making proposals that their friends across the aisle can accept because their voter base wouldn't accept it. They would just as likely say that they can't make the kinds of horse-trades I'm thinking of because their own voter base won't let them.<br /><br />Maybe better PR can help with that latter problem.<br /><br />How many "maybes" above? Only two -- fewer than in my post dealing more with the science. Interesting.Brandon R. Gateshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17031044715994785956noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-7997637146243377442016-01-28T09:20:11.301+11:002016-01-28T09:20:11.301+11:00That Al is far better seconded than Anthony is no...That Al is far better seconded than Anthony is no reason to indulge the considerable powers of stump speech hyperbole he acquired from his father and his divinity school.preceptors.<br /><br />The pathology of the climate policy debate resides more in the deployment of competant PR flacks than woebegone amateursTHE CLIMATE WARShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02578106673226403151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-74899497276350618682016-01-28T06:51:33.106+11:002016-01-28T06:51:33.106+11:00Sou,
Too many "mights", Brandon.
You m...Sou,<br /><br /><i>Too many "mights", Brandon.</i><br /><br />You might be right ... :)<br /><br /><i>There are already a lot of things happening that are irreversible on any reasonable time frame (decades to centuries to millennia).</i><br /><br />Sure. Ice sheet melt and by extention SLR trends don't stop on a dime on the order of centuries to millennia. Bintanja et al. (2008) has been my go-to reference for that, I'm sure there are numerous other more recent studies -- IIRC one from last year is telling us that Larsen B ice shelf could go anywhere between tomorrow and a decade.<br /><br />It's the things we're less sure of that I'm most concerned about.<br /><br />I don't want to stubbornly stand on point in perpetuity [1], so let me end it by saying there's more I agree with both Mr Gore and you about. I thought you made a particularly good point that the movie is far more factually grounded than the average WUWT article and I would probably do well to adjust my overall view of the film accordingly. Cheers.<br /><br />---------------<br /><br />[1] My housemate pointed to this phrase and said, "bullshit" ...Brandon R. Gateshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17031044715994785956noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-18080317563223431442016-01-27T17:43:23.834+11:002016-01-27T17:43:23.834+11:00Too many "mights", Brandon. There are al...Too many "mights", Brandon. There are already a lot of things happening that are irreversible on any reasonable time frame (decades to centuries to millennia).<br /><br />As Susan Solomon wrote - irreversible doesn't mean unstoppable, which is the message Gore and the Climate Council were sending with their urgency re the time frame. <br /><br />Global warming has happened and is continuing. The ice sheets are melting and will continue to do so for millenia. Sea rise likewise. Climate change all over likewise. Ocean acidificaton likewise.<br /><br />They are all "have happened and will continue", no "might" about it. It's up to us to decide how much we want the world to change (for better or worse, in the near and far term), and how quickly we want that change (ie do we want seas to rise 2 metres this century or would we prefer 2 metres over two centuries) :(Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-70101966645838991622016-01-27T17:21:09.852+11:002016-01-27T17:21:09.852+11:00Sou, PS:
The longer we take to get the energy shi...Sou, PS:<br /><br /><i>The longer we take to get the energy shift going in earnest, the harder it will be to stay within the CO2 budget down the track.</i><br /><br />Yes, exactly. I think really that's the best argument of all.Brandon R. Gateshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17031044715994785956noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-68896835962539844882016-01-27T17:18:44.388+11:002016-01-27T17:18:44.388+11:00Sou,
It was meant to give the sense of urgency th...Sou,<br /><br /><i>It was meant to give the sense of urgency that is required ...</i><br /><br />Indeed, and I absolutely agreed with the urgency he was advocating for all of the same reasons you detail in your reply. There's a difference in how I think and talk about that than Gore does. Maybe I can illustrate in the abstract:<br /><br /><i>Gore: If we don't do X within ten years, then Y will happen and it will be irreversible.<br /><br />me: If we don't start doing X now, there's a chance Y will happen, we don't know exactly when we might expect it to happen, and might not know right away that it has, and might not be able to stop it once it's clear that it is happening.</i><br /><br />My construction (which is basically just the precautionary principle) gets hammered all the same because it lacks specific timing, includes all sorts of caveats and because Judith Curry has reinforced how wrongly the "let's wait until we know for sure" crowd think about uncertainty. It is, however, consistent with my level of understanding of the science and doesn't require me to learn a bunch more to be a defensible argument.<br /><br />Along those lines, Phil Clarke's analogy about the braking distance of a car is a good one, and I've used similar. Another one I like is that seismologists can't tell us exactly when the next Big One is going to hit, best they can do is estimate the probability of a major quake over the next 30 years. That they don't know for sure is not "proof" that the theory of plate tectonics has been "falsified", and only a fool would think that it's therefore a good idea to scrimp on building codes so that we have more cash for "adaptation".<br /><br />In sum, I'm suggesting that there are ways to get across the sense urgency by expressing more confidence about the past than about the future, and since we have empirical evidence of the past but not the future, being on much more solid footing doing it.Brandon R. Gateshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17031044715994785956noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-29766827602709337552016-01-27T14:23:45.439+11:002016-01-27T14:23:45.439+11:00It was never meant to be testable in a specific qu...It was never meant to be testable in a specific quantitative sense. However it will be testable in retrospect to some extent. (People will look back and say "if only we'd done more in the early 2000s, we'd have been able to prevent or slow xyz tipping point.)<br /><br />It was meant to give the sense of urgency that is required, that if we don't get our act together the following will happen:<br /><br />CO2 will accumulate so that we use up the budget sooner<br />We will find it more difficult to wean ourselves off fossil fuel the longer we take to start.<br /><br />That is, we need to keep working to shift to renewables, more efficient use of energy etc, so that we don't find ourselves in a situation where there's only 30 GT left in the budget but our energy economy is still 70% fossil fuel based.<br /><br />It is a similar time frame to the Critical Decade paper of the Climate Council, which came out five years later in 2011, just shifted back five years. The authors at the time said that what we do this decade (2011 to 2020) will determine the warming for the next two generations, among other things. <br /><br />That is, what we do now will determine what happens decades (and centuries) down the track.<br /><br />IMO it hasn't been falsified. If anything, with the reports of the changes we're bringing about (eg the "unstoppable" WAIS collapse), one could argue it's already been proven true.<br /><br />The longer we take to get the energy shift going in earnest, the harder it will be to stay within the CO2 budget down the track.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-53627484072844193972016-01-27T13:43:41.904+11:002016-01-27T13:43:41.904+11:00That restores some of my faith in humanity. That t...That restores some of my faith in humanity. That to behave so immorally, you have to pay them 10 times as much as someone of their quality would otherwise make.Marcnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-37007846977924236442016-01-27T12:26:56.696+11:002016-01-27T12:26:56.696+11:00Sou,
What Anthony is doing is playing a silly wor...Sou,<br /><br /><i>What Anthony is doing is playing a silly word game with the "within the next 10 years" part. That is, Anthony is attaching the "point of no return" to imply Gore said that the world will collapse in ten years. That's not what was written nor, I expect, is what was meant.</i><br /><br />Clearly Anthony is building another strawman here, and is thus guilty of doing exactly what he accuses Mr Gore of doing: telling fibs. Though I'm sure Anthony would say he was just embellishing. Or perhaps simply taking artistic license: https://archive.is/HPmMk#selection-563.0-601.7<br /><br />Me, quotemine? Never.<br /><br />So about that. Here's the bit from the AP/CBS article about "An Inconvenient Truth":<br /><br /><i>And politicians and corporations have been ignoring the issue for decades, to the point that unless drastic measures to reduce greenhouse gases are taken within the next 10 years, the world will reach a point of no return, Gore said.</i><br /><br />As you point out, not a direct quote. But I have seen the movie, once, and I don't have much doubt the paraphrase is true to Mr Gore's actual comments. I did read the entire news article attempting to determine what "point of no return" specifically meant, and some sort of provenance for the one-decade estimate. (Anthony's first article on this a few days back included pretty much the same excerpt your post here does.) Couldn't find one. Maybe Gore expanded on (not embellished) that premise to the AP reporter in the interview, maybe not.<br /><br />My point is, I didn't like the way it was written, even in full context, because it wasn't specific in a way that is testable, but was specific about a time frame. Scientifically useless in other words, and doomed to be "falsified" as soon as it was printed; as well as something I think that the AP and CBS could reasonably be held to account for publishing no matter who it was they were paraphrasing, whether or not they did so accurately.Brandon R. Gateshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17031044715994785956noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-13524602284738364992016-01-27T06:54:15.520+11:002016-01-27T06:54:15.520+11:00Considering that the PDO has probably flipped back...Considering that the PDO has probably flipped back into a positive phase and that we are in for a spurt of warming, it's fun to speculate what the state of climate denial will be in a few years from now.Marknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-89293955529934651472016-01-27T02:54:57.357+11:002016-01-27T02:54:57.357+11:00In 2013 Morano received US$ 163,204 from 'the ...In 2013 Morano received US$ 163,204 from 'the Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow' (CFACT) for his role as that organizations' Director of Communications. The fact that in that role Morano made more than the 'Exec Director & Treasurer (Craig Rucker; US$ 115,146) and the 'President & Chairman' (David Rothbard; US$ 119,920) indicates just how important the role of H̶e̶a̶d̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶P̶r̶o̶p̶a̶g̶a̶n̶d̶a̶ Director of Communications really is to CFACT. http://tinyurl.com/zw7mougHuma Kuvalanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-31137906842591564512016-01-27T00:19:03.500+11:002016-01-27T00:19:03.500+11:00Yes he is quite clear on this
In Merchants of Dou...Yes he is quite clear on this<br /><br />In Merchants of Doubt he jokes that he is "not a scientist although I play one on TV occasionally"<br /><br />And he also admits that they - the contrarians, don't do any science themselves, the sole aim is to sow confusion and delay any action on AGW<br /><br />He does not mince his words and is pretty clear on the tacticsTadaaahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07736188830660481871noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-41012128761400026632016-01-26T23:42:44.929+11:002016-01-26T23:42:44.929+11:00What Anthony is doing is playing a silly word game...<i>What Anthony is doing is playing a silly word game with the "within the next 10 years" part. That is, Anthony is attaching the "point of no return" to imply Gore said that the world will collapse in ten years.</i><br /><br />This is a key misrepresentation. A vehicle travelling at 70mph has a stopping distance of about 106m (excuse the mixed units). Thus if a driver perceives a blocked road 116m ahead he has about 10m of road in which to start braking. Gore's warning was akin to saying unless we brake now, we're in trouble. Watts stupid response , (well a small part of it, jeez, you'd need a whole library) is like saying because we did not hit the brakes, and we have yet to smash into a wall, Gore is a liar. <br /><br />It’s a simplistic analogy, but then it’s a dumb argument.<br />Phil Clarkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15744659873337514317noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-19986936514090888382016-01-26T23:10:28.343+11:002016-01-26T23:10:28.343+11:00"Marc Morano (I think he's landed a paid ..."Marc Morano (I think he's landed a paid gig, but I class him as a freelancer), who'll say anything he's paid to say at double speed while wearing a cheesy grin."<br /><br />I saw an interview with Morano on Dutch tele a couple of weeks ago in which he plainly states that is exactly what he is doing.cRR Kampenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07571285063752477448noreply@blogger.com