tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post2238752122178950137..comments2024-03-25T05:30:23.847+11:00Comments on HotWhopper: Dirty coal, heat waves and floods - and the last straw for Clive HamiltonSouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comBlogger56125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-36362606730753487282017-03-01T05:01:23.665+11:002017-03-01T05:01:23.665+11:00I wonder if there was mass hand-wringing about the...I wonder if there was mass hand-wringing about the folly of using hydro power back in 1998 when a huge ice storm wiped out transmission lines all over Southern Quebec and killed power to much of Montreal for a week.<br /><br />It would make more sense than this silly stuff about how having too much distributed power caused a blackout when the transmission lines went down.<br /><br />Quebec has centralized plants 1000km from where most of the demand is. The argument would still be wrong: the lines that went down were the local ones -- the ice storm hit the major population centres. So even with big power plants near the cities, the power would have gone down almost as long. But in our case, rooftop solar wouldn't have helped much: the solar panels would have been glazed by an inch of ice, trying to catch winter sun to power resistive heat.<br /><br />On the reverse, a South Australia customer with a rooftop solar power system with the electronics to provide power during an outage is a customer who has power during a summer storm.numerobisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-90321859867430175092017-02-28T21:25:29.702+11:002017-02-28T21:25:29.702+11:00The AEMO has a vested interest in minimising it...The AEMO has a vested interest in minimising it's own role in these sort of situations. Nonetheless, it's not likely to have a false narrative written, it will just use words judiciously (in its own interest).<br /><br />There are <a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=reneweconomy+south+australia+blackout&oq=reneweconomy+south+australia+blackout&aqs=chrome..69i57j69i64.10173j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8" rel="nofollow">other interpretations</a> of its reports besides that of our (tone-trolling and host-flaming) guest.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-57136165639628549302017-02-28T20:48:44.976+11:002017-02-28T20:48:44.976+11:00Your tone-trolling is pretty transparent.
It'...<i>Your tone-trolling is pretty transparent.</i><br /><br />It's called being polite, a rare commodity here it would seem.<br /><br /><i>Your conclusion about the electricity situation is your own opinion and speculation.</i><br /><br />Actually it is based on the multiple interim reports from AEMO. They are online and you can read them for yourself.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-57941384174965666222017-02-28T20:06:41.770+11:002017-02-28T20:06:41.770+11:00"Really Sou, it is not good form to disrespec...<i>"Really Sou, it is not good form to disrespect fellow professionals.."</i><br /><br /><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pUC0LCi1VRk" rel="nofollow">I'm going to pick a fight.</a><br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-61943985401348473702017-02-28T19:13:26.433+11:002017-02-28T19:13:26.433+11:00Brian Westlake.
"Really Sou, it is not good ...Brian Westlake.<br /><br />"Really Sou, it is not good form to disrespect fellow professionals.."<br /><br />Your tone-trolling is pretty transparent.<br /><br />Your conclusion about the electricity situation is your own opinion and speculation. Take your own advice, wait for the report from "professionals".Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11872802685104293884noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-31507784862164696862017-02-28T06:44:53.895+11:002017-02-28T06:44:53.895+11:00Simply because there is a lot of wind power in Sou...<i>Simply because there is a lot of wind power in South Australia does not mean that the blackouts were caused by an "overcapacity of wind power."</i><br /><br />From a purely technical perspective, that is true. However when you consider the commercial realities, the picture is not so clear. Ask yourself how it came to be that SA has the most expensive electricity in Australia, and is politically wedded to single interconnector to cheap Victorian baseload brown coal plants.<br /><br />Fossil fuels are finite. But it is somewhat inconsistent to point to resource shortages 300 years in the future, while ignoring the political, technical and commercial impediments to building innovative and profitable technology yesterday. Argument from incredulity?<br /><br />And then you speak of "useful idiots" while you angrily rail at simple pragmatism. <br /><br />Watch for the AEMO reports, they will not be concluding that we should yet be building more wind and solar power, and they will have powerful reasons to conclude that way.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-78007807603340139112017-02-27T21:42:24.813+11:002017-02-27T21:42:24.813+11:00More baseload power isn't what's needed in...<i>More baseload power isn't what's needed in heat waves and storms.</i><br /><br />Well not quite correct.<br /><br />http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-12/renewable-energy-mix-played-role-in-sa-blackout/8111184<br /><br />If the Northern power station (local baseload) had not been shutdown the outcome in all 4 recent blackouts would have been different. On that issue, the final report will be issued in the next few weeks.<br /><br /><i>it wasn't renewables that caused the SA blackout, it was a huge storm knocking down high voltage lines, and the <b>piddly</b> link to Vic power.</i><br /><br />Piddly? So are you suggesting that if the link to Victorian baseload brown coal had been more robust things may have been different?<br /><br />Really Sou, it is not good form to disrespect fellow professionals - there are some matters that should be left to the engineers, even mere mechanical engineers. :)<br /><br />There is no question that Australia is moving inexorably away from coal and toward renewables, and rightly so. But recent events have illustrated that before we build more renewables we need to deploy and distribute relable and cost effective baseload, and build more flexible local storage and dispatchable supply. So COAG, which comprises of both ALP and LNP representation from the states and the commonwealth, has initiated the Finkel Review http://www.environment.gov.au/energy/national-electricity-market-review. A plan will be the result. Let us hope it is executed with full bipartisan support.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-46896569405735900892017-02-25T01:38:59.771+11:002017-02-25T01:38:59.771+11:00:):)Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-12688672751117387112017-02-25T01:33:45.240+11:002017-02-25T01:33:45.240+11:00Sou...Your mistake--like Kellyanne noted in the ca...Sou...Your mistake--like Kellyanne noted in the case of Trump--is that you listen to the words he actually says, not the feelings in his heartjgnfldnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-34531037684764933092017-02-24T23:43:49.554+11:002017-02-24T23:43:49.554+11:00"Simply because there were blackouts in NSW a..."<i>Simply because there were blackouts in NSW and QLD due to plant failures, does not mean that the blackout in SA were not caused by an overcapacity of wind power, with insufficient storage, and backup systems which cannot be brought online fast enough to respond to weather related events.</i>"<br /><br />Simply because there is a lot of wind power in South Australia does not mean that the blackouts were caused by an "overcapacity of wind power."<br /><br />"<i>I doubt the answer will be to install more wind and solar capacity.</i>"<br /><br />Argument from incredulity is a logical fallacy.<br /><br />"<i>More baseload and/or dispatchable supply is required.</i>"<br /><br />Given that at some point in the future fossil carbon cannot be used as a power source (whether through excessive harm to the planet or from mere inevitable depletion of the resource) the ultimate requirement is for baseload that relies on renewables and perhaps to some extent on nuclear (although that has its own sustainability issues...). This means that, in contradiction to your assertion, wind and solar <i>will</i> have to be increased as sources for power.<br /><br />The problem is not the sources of power. The problem is rebuilding an outdated 20th century technology distribution grid to deal with the new sources, and the vagaries of escalating human demand in an environment that has started to demonstrate the physical realities of a climate where the unaccounted-for pollution of yesterday is starting to feed back on the desires for continued power generation tomorrow.<br /><br />The problem is that Tremble Turnbull and the LNP style themselves as "innovators", and yet they can't even expedite the currently developed cutting-edge technologies that would allow for an innovative, modern, sustainable and profitable distribution grid. And why can't they? Because their mates sell coal.<br /><br />The LNP and their business buddies must be delighted that they have useful idiots and shills on the internet to spread FUD in order to dissemble and delay.Bernard J.https://www.blogger.com/profile/16299073166371273808noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-46271345370365132062017-02-24T14:59:27.252+11:002017-02-24T14:59:27.252+11:00Who has a current policy of "shutting down as...Who has a current policy of "shutting down as many coal plants as possible"? It is the policy of COAG, represented by both LNP and ALP governments (state and federal), on the back of the requirements to meet emissions targets set by the LNP in Paris. It is executed through the joint mechanisms of the RET, and government subsidies on renewable energy which skews the market making coal generation uneconomical. The policy has resulted in 8 pnats closing: https://theconversation.com/factcheck-have-eight-of-australias-12-most-emission-intensive-power-stations-closed-in-the-last-five-years-65036<br /><br />Now I am in favour of deep emissions cuts, and I agree that ultimately coal plants should and will be shutdown and replaced. The point of contention is the apparent incompetence of COAG and certain state governments in shutting down baseload supply BEFORE implementing suitable dispatchable peaking solutions (gas open cycle or other storage). More renewables now is NOT the answer, let alone the "main pathway" to emissions reduction.<br /><br />I am not advocating coal burning, I am advocating better planning - an end to politicing and division, we need bipartisan supported policies - a plan. And yes, I am pretty passionate about it, if you felt I was attacking you I apologise, I am just here to discuss.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-14681743903360525632017-02-24T09:36:48.905+11:002017-02-24T09:36:48.905+11:00That was sarcasm - and to underline the point that...That was sarcasm - and to underline the point that it wasn't renewables that caused the SA blackout, it was a huge storm knocking down high voltage lines, and the piddly link to Vic power.<br /><br />More baseload power isn't what's needed in heat waves and storms, it's more flexible power to deal with peaks in demand. NSW demand had Victoria put on notice for possible shutdown during the recent NSW heat wave. Rooftop solar helped the situation, more renewables (and even gas) would have helped even more. (You spoiled things there. When you claimed expertise as an engineer, albeit mechanical not electrical, you should know baseload is for base, not peaks.)Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-47187696967781440862017-02-24T09:29:54.670+11:002017-02-24T09:29:54.670+11:00Who has a current policy of "shutting down as...Who has a current policy of "shutting down as many coal plants as possible"? I wish there was such a policy somewhere.<br /><br />It was I who told you that per capita is dropping, so that's not news to me. It's not because of any policies of Turnbull and the LNP, it's despite their lack of policies. Overall our carbon emissions have risen the last couple of years.<br /><br />I'm all for finding points of agreement, not disagreement - but you're advocating more coal burning, and arrived in fighting mode so I responded in kind.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-67778877204426311952017-02-23T22:20:04.915+11:002017-02-23T22:20:04.915+11:00Here is the retrofit project I am referring to. It...Here is the retrofit project I am referring to. It is the only HELE type project that is real (and it is tiny). There are no others projects for new or retrofitting coal plants in Australia at the moment. http://www.globalccsinstitute.com/sites/www.globalccsinstitute.com/files/content/page/122975/files/Callide%20Oxyfuel%20Project.pdfAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-32674025093826532152017-02-23T22:07:35.393+11:002017-02-23T22:07:35.393+11:00This comment has been removed by the author.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-66980885561025471452017-02-23T21:49:41.432+11:002017-02-23T21:49:41.432+11:00Sou, yes I think you are being hard on me. And I ...Sou, yes I think you are being hard on me. And I took off my blinkers and re-read above as you suggested: <br /><br />I said "some corrections to this article are required", I did not mean that I wanted you to change the article - and I tried to correct this misunderstanding, it was not a denial but rather a clarification. I only wished to call out what I felt were inaccuracies, as a discussion point. Obviously I did not want to change a verbatim quote from Clive Hamilton. Apologies if that was misunderstood.<br /><br />Yes I said "only", and "you may call it imprecision if you wish". Again apologies.<br /><br />I said there are no plans for new coal plants, and there aren't. That is a fact. I made no reference at all to what politicians are saying (they are all liars anyway), I am only talking about facts.<br /><br />You say "Both our Prime Minister and his Minister for the Environment and Energy, Josh Frydenberg, are now intent upon increasing carbon emissions" That simply isn't true. Emissions are going down PER CAPITA, and there are no policies which will see that change. That is a fact, regardless of what you think politicians are saying.<br /><br />You call me an apologist, and that is unfair and untrue, I have no love for the LNP nor any other party. I am merely pointing out that our deployment of renewables and current policy of shutting down as many coal plants as possible is causing reliability issues in the power network, and we need to fix that before we continue to build more renewables. Australia without a reliable power network is stuffed, I mean really stuffed, and very quickly we will no longer have the wealth and prosperity to engage in technology research, infrastructure building and modernising etc., all the things we need to do to meet our international obligations for emissions reductions.<br /><br />Finally, I have no argument with you or BernardJ on the need for emissions reductions, as fast as possible. But stuffing up the country is not a good way to do it. I am sure that is not what you support. And if that is the case, then we are on the same page.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-67053997912745349592017-02-23T21:07:56.246+11:002017-02-23T21:07:56.246+11:00Sou:"Have you heard how the numerous blackout...Sou:"Have you heard how the numerous blackouts in Sydney, NSW, and Queensland in the past few months were also caused or exacerbated by wind turbines?"<br /><br />Strawman argument. Simply because there were blackouts in NSW and QLD due to plant failures, does not mean that the blackout in SA were not caused by an overcapacity of wind power, with insufficient storage, and backup systems which cannot be brought online fast enough to respond to weather related events.<br /><br />The reasons for the SA blackouts will all be the subject of official AEMO reports. So too with the blackouts in NSW and QLD. I doubt the answer will be to install more wind and solar capacity. More baseload and/or dispatchable supply is required.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-20744778349248525552017-02-23T11:44:00.143+11:002017-02-23T11:44:00.143+11:00I would suggest that you are looking too hard for ...<i>I would suggest that you are looking too hard for fault</i><br /><br />LOL<br /><br />https://memegenerator.net/instance/28685477Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-44726934148525360932017-02-23T11:32:51.712+11:002017-02-23T11:32:51.712+11:00Really. It's I who's been looking to fault...Really. It's I who's been looking to fault? Do us all a favour and re-read your comments here, Brian - starting with <a href="http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2017/02/dirty-coal-heat-waves-and-floods-and.html?showComment=1487581185369#c548315576960919356" rel="nofollow">your first</a>, where you called for me to correct, as it turned out, something you didn't like about what Clive Hamilton wrote (and <a href="http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2017/02/dirty-coal-heat-waves-and-floods-and.html?showComment=1487588968851#c3885188878857196144" rel="nofollow">then denied</a> you wanted me to correct it). As well as being an apologist for the fossilised coal promoters in Parliament. Then made all sorts of inaccurate and unsubstantiated claims. (Including one about how our politicians aren't calling for new coal plants, when <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/feb/01/barnaby-joyce-says-australia-should-build-new-coal-fired-power-stations" rel="nofollow">some of them are</a>.)<br /> :(<br /><br />As for bipartisanship, if you mean you wish there had been bipartisanship when Gillard brought in the carbon price as a precursor to an ETS, which have both been supported by people on both sides of the house, including Malcolm Turnbull, John Howard, and Greg Hunt - then I agree. It's such a shame that any bipartisanship was totally destroyed by Tony Abbott, and now by whoever is holding Malcolm Turnbull to ransom.<br /><br />Other countries can have a much more bipartisan approach, why can't our supposed leaders in Australia work something out?<br /><br />Also - <a href="http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2017/02/anthony-watts-publishes-another.html?showComment=1487680821995#c5944302132067654417" rel="nofollow"><br />what BernardJ said</a>.<br /><br />If you think I'm being too hard on you, take off your blinkers and re-read what I wrote. Then what you wrote. Then do some research of your own. I have little patience for anyone who thinks coal is an answer to Australia's problems, and lets our climate suffer. Nor do I have much patience for an apologist for the current government's appalling lack of action to mitigate climate change, preventing us meeting our international obligations and hastening worse and more extreme weather.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-55815739087059577862017-02-23T09:03:14.640+11:002017-02-23T09:03:14.640+11:00You may call it imprecision if you wish, I would s...You may call it imprecision if you wish, I would suggest that you are looking too hard for fault, and taking me too literally. On a brighter note, we generally agree on the technical issues. But we will have to agree to disagree on the partisan politics - on that I am more inclined toward encouraging bipartisanship as the path to a positive policy outcome.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-57026252400700799602017-02-21T17:36:44.532+11:002017-02-21T17:36:44.532+11:00"Main" yes (in the case of electricity a..."Main" yes (in the case of electricity and transport), <b><i>"only"</i></b> no, as evidenced by my response above. <br /><br />Should I put your inclusion of <b>only</b> and then your deliberately ignoring it down to artistic licence? Something you didn't mean to do? Or was it imprecision, casualness, slackness, or bait, Brian?Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-10166194241296517602017-02-21T15:54:48.690+11:002017-02-21T15:54:48.690+11:00Thanks SouThanks SouAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-4979147876864883222017-02-21T15:53:45.827+11:002017-02-21T15:53:45.827+11:00Sou, you ask where I get my ideas about your belie...Sou, you ask where I get my ideas about your beliefs about renewables being the best and only path, and then you confirm by saying "Renewables are the biggest and main path at present and will most likely remain so for the future". So thanks for confirming :)<br /><br />With regard to pumped hydro, see http://energy.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/1526587/Opps-for-pumped-hydro-in-Australia.pdf . Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-50455180832079294522017-02-21T13:58:14.718+11:002017-02-21T13:58:14.718+11:00Brian, I'm not sure where you get some of your...Brian, I'm not sure where you get some of your ideas about my opinions. I don't know that I've ever said (or thought) that "renewable energy is the best and only path". It seems to be a habit of yours - confirmation bias (or is there something you can quote? Maybe it was me who was misleading.)<br /><br />Renewables are the biggest and main path at present and will most likely remain so for the future, but there are others as you point out. That's one reason I refer to it so often. The other is that this blog is mainly to counteract denialism, and if there's one thing deniers abhor, it's modernising the electricity infrastructure by shifting to renewable energy. Most of them irrationally want to stick with coal and oil, seemingly forever.<br /><br />I agree with you that storage solutions are important. <br /><br />Nuclear (despite my instinctive aversion) is part of the mix in many places too, though I'll be relieved if Australia can manage to get it's emissions to drop to the required (very) low level without having to use it. <br /><br />Any use of fossil fuels is short term at best (years or decades, not centuries), though reducing emissions from existing facilities is obviously a measure that will be very helpful.<br /><br />Storage is important but it's not the only thing that's important. So is having sufficient sources that can be turned on and off to meet demand fluctuations, and a grid capable of adjusting instantly to changes in demand. So is increasing energy efficiency - and we've made some strides in that area, too.<br /><br />Australia has a long way to go to reduce emissions to anything like an acceptable level (so are many other countries). Australia isn't nearly as advanced as it could and should be in terms of modernising it's electricity and electric vehicle networks, given its location and wealth. That's partly because of our heavy investment in coal, which in turn is because of the cheap and easy availability of coal, partly because of the tyranny of distance, and partly because of the lack of consistent policy from governments. (Business and industry prefer policy certainty for long term investments. They've not had it.) The tyranny of distance is being tackled in different ways. Not every isolated community needs to rely on the national grid.<br /><br />In Australia, opportunities for adding more conventional hydro are limited to non-existent. Not sure about pumped hydro. Sounds good but I don't know enough about it to know if it would become a significant strategy.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-21544076849937551062017-02-21T13:28:34.510+11:002017-02-21T13:28:34.510+11:00Thanks Sou, my background is in mechanical enginee...Thanks Sou, my background is in mechanical engineering, though I am not working in the field now, and have moved into an alternative line of work which allows me more time to spend with my family.<br /><br />Fighting fires has been formative of my views on climate change and environmental policy. CO2 causes warming, but hotter heatwaves are not the biggest factor in increasing the danger of bushfires. Fuel load is far more important, and CO2 causes increased plant growth, so remediation (adaptation must include a policy to increase hazard reduction activities.<br /><br />While I am passionate advocate for progressive emissions reductions, I do not share your belief, which is very commonly held, that renewable energy is the best and only path, and that all policy should be focussed on getting more wind and solar power. Energy generation needs to be reliable, and too much intermittent wind and solar creates problems. We need more storage technologies to be implemented first, pumped hydro, compressed air, large-scale batteries, biomass harvesting. Until we have a ten-fold increase in the availability of dispatchable power, we should refrain from deploying intermittent technologies and look elsewhere for emissions cuts. In my opinion HELE coal, gas closed cycle, perhaps even nuclear (though that would be very politically difficult), all represent positive steps toward Australia doing our bit to reduce global emissions.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com