tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post1876373065645847942..comments2024-03-25T05:30:23.847+11:00Comments on HotWhopper: Much to the dismay of Christopher Monckton and his illiterati fans at WUWT, it's still not coolingSouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-28236833931343873492014-02-10T16:03:30.274+11:002014-02-10T16:03:30.274+11:00"....when you have multiple samples to pick f..."....when you have multiple samples to pick from..."Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12083190014669867976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-54502918242526898332014-02-10T15:58:37.521+11:002014-02-10T15:58:37.521+11:00There's an excellent post by Tamino on cherry...There's an excellent post by Tamino on <a href="http://tamino.wordpress.com/2014/02/09/cherry-p/" rel="nofollow">cherry picking</a> which raises the point that when you have multiple you end up with the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Look-elsewhere_effect" rel="nofollow">look elsewhere effect</a>. It's worth reading and digesting.<br /><br />Basically the more samples you look at, last 10 yrs, last 10yrs 1 month, last 10 years 2 months etc, etc, the more likely you'll find one sample that appears to be significant, even though as a whole the trend is not.<br /><br />And from the comments, <a href="https://xkcd.com/882/" rel="nofollow">xkcd on Significance</a> :)Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12083190014669867976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-63467950922704077412014-02-10T15:05:50.654+11:002014-02-10T15:05:50.654+11:00Stupid anonymous.
http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2014...Stupid anonymous.<br /><br /><a href="http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2014/01/maurice-newman-utter-nutter-science.html?showComment=1389974617817#c7539886917368917319" rel="nofollow">http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2014/01/maurice-newman-utter-nutter-science.html?showComment=1389974617817#c7539886917368917319</a><br /><br />How many times must we plough this ground?Bernard J.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-53134960803451386472014-02-10T11:56:26.709+11:002014-02-10T11:56:26.709+11:00Oh dear. Trying to explain the logical fallacy of ...Oh dear. Trying to explain the logical fallacy of the cherry pick to deniers is an exercise in futility. Maybe a better term for you guys should be devoiders, since your brains are devoid of any rational thought and critical thinking!!Davenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-32878551765557148402014-02-10T09:12:04.683+11:002014-02-10T09:12:04.683+11:00Your analysis confirms the point Monckton was tryi...Your analysis confirms the point Monckton was trying to make. The trend of RSS from all start points between 1979 and 1996 up until present was positive. From that point on, it has been mostly flat or negative - 17 years of each. Why?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-12958581536822024492014-02-09T17:28:06.422+11:002014-02-09T17:28:06.422+11:00Don, Christopher's a Viscount so is a Lord (if...Don, Christopher's a Viscount so is a Lord (if you go for that sort of thing). He's not a member of the House of Lords (Upper House of Parliament).Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-12433347414017516532014-02-09T17:07:29.790+11:002014-02-09T17:07:29.790+11:00He's not really a "Lord," you know.He's not really a "Lord," you know. Don Brookshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379725341973886243noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-49113713640132065492014-02-09T15:53:08.203+11:002014-02-09T15:53:08.203+11:00PS. for a collection of links to various authori...PS. for a collection of links to various authoritative point by point scientific take downs of Lord Monckton's science fiction - I've compiled a collection at:<br /><br />Lord Christopher Monckton 2013 - The Republican poster boy<br />http://whatsupwiththatwatts.blogspot.com/2014/02/lord-christopher-monckton-2013.html<br />citizenschallengehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04559990934735912814noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-25367506691819060552014-02-08T21:45:17.015+11:002014-02-08T21:45:17.015+11:00See my latest article:
http://blog.hotwhopper.com...See my latest article:<br /><br />http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2014/02/friday-funny-peculiar-at-wuwt-science.htmlSouhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-77185483760586640942014-02-08T20:02:38.980+11:002014-02-08T20:02:38.980+11:00"(The chart that popped up as part of a backg...<i>"(The chart that popped up as part of a background visual when John Holdren was talking was UAH as far as I can tell.)"</i><br /><br />I think they are insisting it originally emanates from the White House. If that is so it would be nice to see the original and see if the "tilt" is just an artifact of the presentation. <br />Jammy Dodgernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-61624491236840434842014-02-08T16:19:01.273+11:002014-02-08T16:19:01.273+11:00Re: "data showing least warming" The use...Re: "data showing least warming" The use of satellite data (a) makes the anomalies smaller because UAH and RSS have 'warmer' baselines than other data sets and (b) exaggerates the peak data for 1998 relative to the other data sets.<br />After the next big El Nino, satellite data will be questioned along the lines of 'not actually using thermometers are they?", "they use algorithms, whatever the hell they are, to arrive at the temperatures", etc<br />George Montgomeryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07042191140401441348noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-82067600544939666382014-02-08T11:06:16.657+11:002014-02-08T11:06:16.657+11:00Marco, from the data, RSS cuts off a little bit of...Marco, from the data, RSS cuts off a little bit of the Arctic but not most of it. It goes up to 82.5N.<br /><br />RSS does cut out most of the region south of the Antarctic Circle, only going as far as 70S. I think it was BBD who suggested that's because it has trouble getting accurate readings over Antartica for a couple of reasons - I think it's that the albedo interferes with the satellite readings, as does the altitude of the mountains in Antarctica.<br /><br />If you look at the chart above, it's only the last three years - from 2011 onwards, that RSS seems to be different to UAH. It could still be within the error bars (I haven't checked) or it could be something amiss with one or the other in the last three years. (The "true" value for the lower troposphere might be half way between UAH and RSS or it could be one or the other.)Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-5061804626006149602014-02-08T10:53:49.452+11:002014-02-08T10:53:49.452+11:00Deniers are neither consistent nor rational. They...Deniers are neither consistent nor rational. They tend to "like" whatever data they think shows least warming. This changes over time. In the past they've been bigger fans of UAH and HadCRUT than RSS. They'll even try to use HadCET (which is a conglomerate of temperatures of central England). <br /><br />For the moment it's RSS. That will only last until RSS has another spike, then they might shift their allegiance to GISTemp (or go back to trying to persuade people that central England is the entire world).<br /><br />The temperature of the mid-troposphere would be monitored in a similar fashion. The article I linked to describes more than the lower troposphere. In estimating mid-troposphere temperature trends, UAH would have to do something similar to the RSS people. (The chart that popped up as part of a background visual when John Holdren was talking was UAH as far as I can tell.)Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-14069603766341226162014-02-08T06:26:01.720+11:002014-02-08T06:26:01.720+11:00While its nice to see Monckton using modern mathem...While its nice to see Monckton using modern mathematics (rather than just using two datapoints) it seems that the El Nino cherrypick is still a fixation. I expect that he will continue to be a fan of (ab)using El Ninos when assessing temperature trends all the way until there is another strong El Nino at what - for him - would be the wrong end of the graph.Millicentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-46000297626754769142014-02-08T04:55:28.555+11:002014-02-08T04:55:28.555+11:00Thanks for the explanations. I was struggling with...Thanks for the explanations. I was struggling with the TLAs and finding some description of the data. I have not looked at satellite data much (at all) before. I have noticed that deniers seem to like satellite data but I did not know why. I think it is because it offers more scope for obfuscation and sounding sciencey when you do not know what you are talking about. Since you posted this there is another article from WUWT promoting a misinformation video about a White House graph. One of their misinformation points was mocking the use of "middle troposphere" data. I will try and see if I can find an explanation of that somewhere.<br /> Jammy Dodgernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-50696574991348224702014-02-08T04:45:37.476+11:002014-02-08T04:45:37.476+11:00Sou, an interesting aspect of RSS is that it reall...Sou, an interesting aspect of RSS is that it really cuts off most of the Arctic and Antarctic, unlike UAH. I'm not sure how related it is, but Cowtan and Way showing how much taking the Arctic into account means for the trend of HADCRUT4 I would not be surprised that RSS is so 'flat' at least in part due to that aspect.Marconoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-43725150935849067462014-02-08T04:13:06.313+11:002014-02-08T04:13:06.313+11:00I should have given you this link, although it'...I should have given you this link, although it's fairly technical. There are some graphics that help describe what is being measured and how.<br /><br />http://www.remss.com/measurements/upper-air-temperature<br /><br />What is interesting is how the analysis is conducted to put together the TLT estimated temperatures. It's not at all straightforward and includes multiple instruments and multiple satellites and splicing of records. <br /><br />The way some deniers latch onto RSS data as if they are direct readings of temperature from a single instrument on a single satellite (they aren't), and the way they say they prefer RSS to thermometers on the ground, indicates most of them have no idea of how the scientists work out the temperatures of the lower troposphere (or other parts of the atmosphere).Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-70172362137242254712014-02-08T03:57:10.665+11:002014-02-08T03:57:10.665+11:00What you are reading is the link to the RSS data. ...What you are reading is the link to the RSS data. The TLT in the link indicates it's lower troposphere temperature. The data is monthly temperature anomalies of the lower troposphere as reported by RSS, which is the average from 82.5N to 70S, so not quite the entire globe but does cover the lower troposphere over both land and oceans.<br /><br />If you click on the link I provided it shows the text file with the data that indicates the latitude bands.<br /><br />Here's a link with a bit of an explanation:<br /><br />http://www.remss.com/missions/amsu<br /><br />Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-41982475279312988252014-02-08T03:24:37.602+11:002014-02-08T03:24:37.602+11:00Hi Sou
Nice animation. But can you clarify your &q...Hi Sou<br />Nice animation. But can you clarify your "heading should read RSS Lower Troposphere Temperature". Monckton,s chart is labelled "Anomalies_Land_and_Ocean". Jammy Dodgernoreply@blogger.com