tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post1453372458436581119..comments2024-03-25T05:30:23.847+11:00Comments on HotWhopper: 2016 was the hottest year on record for the troposphereSouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-29050534325889347672017-01-09T05:55:48.883+11:002017-01-09T05:55:48.883+11:00Random Dude, here are the plots for CMIP5.Random Dude, <a href="https://twitter.com/ClimateOfGavin/status/817856549385334784" rel="nofollow">here are the plots for CMIP5.</a>Victor Venemahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02842816166712285801noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-86593967621492276042017-01-07T19:40:21.902+11:002017-01-07T19:40:21.902+11:00Exactly Olof, and something *sceptics* should be r...Exactly Olof, and something *sceptics* should be reminded at every turn when they refer the the Sat temp data.<br />To my mind the sonde comparison clearly shows the AMSU sensor to have a cold bias.<br />RSS are merely being pragmatic in splitting the disconnect between 14 and 15.Tony Bantonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12255065592950357838noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-76885506267284090062017-01-07T16:03:02.396+11:002017-01-07T16:03:02.396+11:00Bert, have you told us that story before? I'm...Bert, have you told us that story before? I'm sure that I've read it somewhere, because I was painting architraves last week and picking bits of bristle from the paint, and remembering this story and wondering if I should use a brush or roller for the walls, exactly because of the orange peel which is conspicuous in the paint that someone had previously applied. I also have a friend whose ex is a painter, and I was wondering if I should leave a little spot uncovered somewhere so that I didn't get the micro-scrutiny that might otherwise occur...Bernard J.https://www.blogger.com/profile/16299073166371273808noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-51093353685583797692017-01-07T08:53:24.004+11:002017-01-07T08:53:24.004+11:00BBD, one reason for the low UAH trend is the infam...BBD, one reason for the low UAH trend is the infamous "Cadillac calibration choice". Spencer and Christys " treatment" of the largest intersatellite uncertainty around, is to cherrypick NOAA-15 with the lowest trend and discard NOAA-14 data "due to drifts". <br />The RSS and STAR teams don't do this kind of arbitrary science, they keep both satellites, since they honestly don't know which one is right.<br /><br />I dont know why the satellite teams don't use radiosonde data for validation of significant choices. Maybe they wish to be satellite-only self-sufficient...?<br /><br />IMO radiosonde validation would suggest that NOAA 14 is the right choice:<br />https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B_dL1shkWewaOEd5TUlTYWlMUW8Olof Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18244733455655978307noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-4867310282517123852017-01-07T05:18:18.698+11:002017-01-07T05:18:18.698+11:00So why does the all-new, singing and dancing UAH v...So why does the all-new, singing and dancing UAH v6x beta *match* the known-to-be-biased RSS TLT v3.3 product almost exactly?<br /><br />It's very strange. Perhaps S&C just forgot those old blog posts...BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-60572783581156386802017-01-07T04:24:40.777+11:002017-01-07T04:24:40.777+11:00It seems Spencer and Christy agree that RSS V3.3 h...It seems Spencer and Christy agree that RSS V3.3 has a cooling bias, but suspect a different reason: "my UAH cohort and boss John Christy, who does the detailed matching between satellites, is pretty convinced that the RSS data is undergoing spurious cooling because RSS is still using the old NOAA-15 satellite which has a decaying orbit, to which they are then applying a diurnal cycle drift correction based upon a climate model, which does not quite match reality."Layzejhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11346550512734519728noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-79441230518625312822017-01-07T00:50:56.557+11:002017-01-07T00:50:56.557+11:00Well, its not like other scientists have had to po...Well, its not like other scientists have had to point out a cooling bias to Spencer before.Millicentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-83085078869451234142017-01-06T23:24:25.656+11:002017-01-06T23:24:25.656+11:00Thanks for that Sou.
Notice the caution about th...Thanks for that Sou. <br /><br /><i>Notice the caution about the cooling bias in RSS TLT v3. This would probably apply to UAH v6 beta as well, since it's almost identical to RSS v3.</i><br /><br />It would seem so. In fact here's a simple but unambiguous demonstration that UAH v6.x beta is biased cool. Just <a href="http://woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/offset:-0.1/plot/uah6/plot/rss/offset:-0.1/trend/plot/uah6/trend" rel="nofollow">compare it directly</a> with RSS TLT 3.3 which has a known cool bias.<br /><br />From <a href="http://images.remss.com/papers/rsstech/Jan_5_2017_news_release.pdf" rel="nofollow">RSS news release Jan 05 2017</a>:<br /><br /><i>RSS TLT version 3.3 contains a known cooling bias. We are working to eliminate the bias in the new version of TLT.</i><br /><br />Whoopsie, UAH. <br />BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-54310080380949260762017-01-06T22:56:14.655+11:002017-01-06T22:56:14.655+11:00@ sou
the time and effort required to refute bul...@ sou <br /><br />the time and effort required to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude larger than it is to produce it Tadaaahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07736188830660481871noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-63579065175816479762017-01-06T22:35:19.234+11:002017-01-06T22:35:19.234+11:00Reminds me of a friend in university. He used to w...Reminds me of a friend in university. He used to write a report, save it, deliberately then add three points that the prof would object to and submit the second. Then when he got feedback he printed out the original. <br /><br />Said it saved lots of time. jrkrideauhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04869979887929067657noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-34999827078671621122017-01-06T19:54:15.060+11:002017-01-06T19:54:15.060+11:00Marco,
Thanks, yes you're right. I'm mix...Marco,<br /><br />Thanks, yes you're right. I'm mixing up decadal and century trends. The confidence intervals should be +/- 0.04 and 0.06 respectively, according to Kevin Cowtan's site.DavidRnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-31630583105761033582017-01-06T16:28:37.262+11:002017-01-06T16:28:37.262+11:00I knew a painter who did very very large walls in ...I knew a painter who did very very large walls in commercial buildings. Some passer by would always let him know with the epithet and the pointing of a finger.<br /><br />"You missed a bit!"<br /><br />Little did they know it was done on purpose so the quality inspector would have something to report. <br /><br />Otherwise he would go looking for orange peel or other subtle defects that were very difficult to fix.<br /><br />Bert<br /><br />Bert from Elthamnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-83214511142487080942017-01-06T16:08:32.701+11:002017-01-06T16:08:32.701+11:00It doesn't take much effort to tell lies about...It doesn't take much effort to tell lies about science. It does take a lot of work to do science.<br /><br />(I added my 2c worth.)Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-78691319363199512922017-01-06T15:52:48.905+11:002017-01-06T15:52:48.905+11:00Thanks for the vital work you're doing.
There...Thanks for the vital work you're doing.<br /><br />There's been an interesting piece just posted on the Congressional war on science here: http://www.ozy.com/pov/the-congressional-attack-on-science/74438 A few of the comments beggar belief, though: One guy blithely states that "if nothing else, the hockey stick has been completely discredited by the facts" . . . a statement so counterfactual that all I could do was listen to the sound of my one jaw dropping.noirencyclopediahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02843963811822980754noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-83953190660975697122017-01-06T10:51:09.921+11:002017-01-06T10:51:09.921+11:00I've just added an update about a news release...I've just added <a href="http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2017/01/2016-was-hottest-year-on-record-for.html#update" rel="nofollow">an update</a> about a news release that just arrived from RSS. Notice the caution about the cooling bias in RSS TLT v3. This would probably apply to UAH v6 beta as well, since it's almost identical to RSS v3.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-59977827178696007942017-01-06T06:04:21.595+11:002017-01-06T06:04:21.595+11:00This is really nice work, as always. It would be i...This is really nice work, as always. It would be interesting to see how this compares to the CMIP3 and CMIP5 projections for lower troposphere anomalies. Random Dudehttp://example.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-21032244073838432512017-01-06T04:04:58.030+11:002017-01-06T04:04:58.030+11:00Count down to the Deniers calling the satellite te...Count down to the Deniers calling the satellite temp data set fraudulent 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 :-)Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11872802685104293884noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-85040535547639089812017-01-06T00:47:51.031+11:002017-01-06T00:47:51.031+11:00DavidR, that RSS v3.3 is also old, but they have n...DavidR, that RSS v3.3 is also old, but they have not yet made a TLT product of their new v4.0 (which is published). The latter is likely to give a larger warming rate. In other words, the deniosphere will likely switch back from RSS to UAH - the one with the lowest slope.<br /><br />P.S. Are you sure you meant .6 confidence interval? I think you left out a zero several places :-)Marconoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-9584104141554616832017-01-05T22:41:31.596+11:002017-01-05T22:41:31.596+11:00Thanks Sue. Kevin Cowtan has a useful page on his...Thanks Sue. Kevin Cowtan has a useful page on his University of York website that allows you to check latest trends and error margins. You may already know of it, but some of your readers may find it useful: http://www.ysbl.york.ac.uk/~cowtan/applets/trend/trend.html<br /><br />The full trend in RSS TLT v3.3 from Jan 1979 - Dec 2016 is now +0.14 C/dec with 95% confidence interval of +/- 0.6 C. <br /><br />This places it well within the range of the global land and ocean surface data sets, which show around +0.17 (+/- 0.4) C/dec since 1979.<br /><br />Kevin's calculator still uses the official UAH v5.6, which I guess they will update after v6 is formally published. UAH v5.6 is updated to Nov 2016 and shows +0.15 (+/- 0.6) C/dec warming. I calculate that UAH 6.5 (beta) shows about +0.12 (+/- 0.6) C/dec from 1979, which would still place it within the surface temperature range.<br /><br />Interesting that most 'sceptic' sites are only showing the satellite data in relation to the 1998 el Nino peak, rather than to the 1979 start date. DavidRnoreply@blogger.com