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Friday, July 8, 2016

Troposphere temperatures for June 2016

Sou | 6:04 PM Go to the first of 3 comments. Add a comment
The troposphere temperatures are out for June 2016. The lower troposphere is recorded in UAH v6 beta 5 and RSS TLT v3.3. This report also covers RSS TTT for the troposphere (without the "lower").

In all records, the June global anomaly dropped again, as El Nino dissipated. In the lower troposphere (UAH beta v6.05) and the troposphere (RSS TTT) the June anomaly is lower than it was in 1998. The drop was greater than most people expected, particularly for UAH TLT. Anthony Watts called it "spectacular". However it was still the second hottest June in the UAH record and the third hottest in RSS TTT.

Troposphere temperature (RSS TTT v4) chart


First here is RSS TTT with the latest dataset, version 4. TTT seems to be measure more of the troposphere than TLT (that is, it has a greater vertical profile) with less of the stratosphere than the mid-troposphere data (TMT). It shows a higher rate of warming than RSS v3.3 and higher than UAH.

Hover the cursor (arrow) over the plots to see the data points, trend etc.

The chart below is the average of the 12 months to June, from July 1979 to June 1980, through to July 2015 to June 2016.
Figure 1 | Troposphere temperature for 12 months to June (TTT). Anomaly is from the 1979-1998 mean. Data source: RSS
TTT is a multi-channel combined product made by calculating a linear combination of TMT and TLS. TTT = 1.1*TMT - 0.1*TLS. This combination has the effect of reducing the influence of the lower stratosphere, as shown Figure 3. In the simpler TMT product, about 10% of the weight is from the lower stratosphere. Because the lower stratosphere is cooling at most locations, this causes the decadal trends in TMT to be less than the trends in the mid and upper troposphere. TTT was proposed by Fu and Johanson, 2005.

Figure 2 below shows the differences between TTT, TLT and other measures. The vertical axis is the height above sea level.
Figure 2 | Weighting function for each RSS product. The vertical weighting function describes the relative contribution that microwave radiation emitted by a layer in the atmosphere makes to the total intensity measured above the atmosphere by the satellite. Source: RSS

TLT gives most weight to the temperatures closer to the surface. TTT gives more weight to the troposhere and less to the stratosphere than TMT does, but not as much to the lowest levels of the troposphere as TLT does. However TTT has version 4, while TLT is still only provided as version 3.3. The weightings given to the measures taken by the (currently two) satellites are complicated and described on this website.

While on TTT, here is the chart just for the month of June. The anomaly for June was 0.55 °C, which is 0.13 °C lower than June 1998. For 2016 to be colder than the previous hottest year (1998), the troposphere would have to average less than 0.36 °C for the remaining months.:
Figure 2 | Troposphere temperature for the month of June only (TTT). Anomaly is from the 1979-1998 mean. Data source: RSS


Lower troposphere


The rest of the charts are from UAH beta v6.5. This is almost identical to the old version of RSS, which is v3.3, so is likely to be updated at some time. (Other RSS data sets, like TTT are now at version 4.)

The chart below is the average of the 12 months to June, from July 1979 to June 1980, through to July 2015 to June 2016.

Figure 3 | Lower troposphere temperature for 12 months to June. Anomaly is from the 1981-2010 mean. Data source: UAH

Below is the UAH chart for the month of June only for each year going back to 1979. The anomaly was 0.34 °C above the 1981-2010 mean, which was 0.23 °C lower than the previously hottest June in 1998 (0.57 °C). For 1998 to remain the hottest year in the UAH lower troposphere record, the average for the next six months would need to be below 0.35 °C.

Figure 4 | Lower troposphere temperature for the month of June only. Anomaly is from the 1981-2010 mean. Data source: UAH



Comparing recent El Nino years


Below are charts comparing El Nino years with this current El Nino for RSS (TTT) and UAH lower troposphere. The troposphere temperature peaked in February. In 1998 the peak was in April.

Figure 5 | Troposphere temperature for selected El Nino years (TTT). Anomaly is from the 1979-1998 mean. Data source: RSS


Figure 6 | Lower troposphere temperature for selected El Nino years. Anomaly is from the 1981-2010 mean. Data source: UAH
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From the WUWT comments


This is a selection of comments from the WUWT copy and paste of Roy Spencer's latest article about the UAH lower troposphere record (archived here). His headline was: "Spectacular Drop In Global Average Satellite Temperatures", which set the tone for the thoughts.

The comments were as much about the UK voters opting to leave the EU as they were about temperatures of the troposphere, with some people likening closed borders and tariff protections to freedom and democracy (expressed as the reverse - free trade = communism). That is, some people argue that their country can no longer compete on the world stage (and, by inference, that capitalism is so..o..o yesterday).

lewispbuckingham wrote in advance of learning about the "hottest on record" June in the USA, that:
July 1, 2016 at 11:32 pm
Well if it gets much colder and wetter in the Northern Hemisphere, Australia will have to allow in some climate refugees.

Jim Hodgen doesn't ask about the very rapid warming we've had these past few decades, but he is wondering about the drop in lower troposphere temperatures between April and June:
July 1, 2016 at 11:37 pm
What are some of the consequences of very rapid cooling? Are there implications to ponder that stand out from ‘normal’ cooling rates? Extraordinary change rates can sometimes have extraordinary consequences and I wonder what those might be and when or if we will see some of them. 

1saveenergy is a greenhouse effect denying conspiracy theorist:
July 2, 2016 at 12:33 am
Extraordinary consequences….
Like Al Gore & Mr. Mann saying – sorry we were wrong it’s not CO2 it’s the Sun but thanks for the money we’ll pay it back!!
I suspect more data fiddling & lies are what’s next; CAGW is a Juggernaut not easily stopped bay a few facts, so adjust the data to fit the belief.

vukcevic predicts global cooling, despite the fact that in UAH lower troposphere, last month was the second hottest June on record:
July 2, 2016 at 12:01 am
Spectacular ‘drop’ looks a good match of the preceding spectacular ‘rise’, now back to pause, or even more worrying further decline from the pause to a less spectacular but longer lasting Global Cooling.
Grand Global Temperature Maximum may soon be over, dutifully following its mentor Grand Solar Activity Maximum. 

Geoff Sherrington wonders how Melbourne weather can change so much from autumn to winter. (Melbourne weather can change a lot within a day, not just day to day or month to month.)
July 2, 2016 at 12:12 am
My home town of Melbourne Australia went from a near-record hot May 2016 to a near-average June 2016.
How does global warming theory, intuitively a slow, diffuse, global effect, account for such rapid change? The crossover point from anomalously hot to average here was about May 24th, seen on the daily records of the 5 relevant suburban weather stations I inspected. 

Bill Illis compares Melbourne average temperature with UAH for June globally, apparently unaware that it was the second hottest June in the UAH record. He might not know that 0.34 C is 0.34 C above the 1981 to 2010 average and signifies an upward shift in temperature - to warmer.
July 2, 2016 at 4:27 am
Stokes – “But it’s a change from a warmer base.”
UAH temps in June were only 0.34C. Hardly a warmer base.
And then, June 2016 is still being impacted by the El Nino values in March 2016. El Ninos impact the lower troposphere temps by –> TLT C = 0.14 * (Nino 3.4 (3 months previous)) = 0.14 * (1.68C) = 0.240C.
So your warmer base in June 2016 (adjusted for the El Nino) is only 0.10C.
I call it what it is – effectively Nothing, Zero, Time to give up this global warming theory.

Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy, on no evidence at all, thinks that the pause in the so-called "pause" is going to be temporary and the "pause" that has stopped hasn't stopped:
July 2, 2016 at 5:32 pm
That means, pause-heitus is going to continue for few more years even though CO2 steadily rising..
Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy

tony mcleod wrote, in all innocence:
July 7, 2016 at 6:32 pm
Sorry for being Captain Obvious but given the upward longer term trajectory…
Doesn’t:
Spectacular Drop In Global Average Satellite Temperatures
Needed to be preceded by:
Spectacular Rise In Global Average Satellite Temperatures?
Don’t remember reading that headline here anywhere.

3 comments:

  1. Two months of the dissipating El Nino, and deniers are saying it's Global Cooling.

    One hundred fifty years of warming trend, however, does not indicate global warming.

    Recency bias?

    ReplyDelete
  2. The JMA data for June 2016 were posted online today. Turns out that June 2016 tied June 2015 for the warmest June on record in the JMA data. Here's the link: http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/jun_wld.html

    ReplyDelete

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