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Tuesday, November 5, 2013

Boring climate or short term memory loss at WUWT? Extreme weather in 2013

Sou | 3:02 PM Go to the first of 29 comments. Add a comment


I have neither the time nor the interest in picking up every single wrong in rgbatduke's article from yesterday (archived here). I'll just post a short list as a starter.

rgbatduke is bored with the climate, complaining that there hasn't been anything unusual happening.  I already pulled him up on his mistakes (intentional or otherwise) relating to global temperatures for September (and June).  This time I'll pick him up for his claim about boring climate, which Anthony Watts, supposed weather watcher and owner of WUWT, used as the headline when he elevated rgbatduke's comment:

‘Let’s face it. The climate has never been more boring.’
Here's a list of just a few of the extreme weather events this year that our boring climate has delivered, which wasn't so boring for many people and utterly devastating for some:



Not to mention the as yet little discussed Queensland drought



That's just off the top of my head.  You can tell rgbatduke about other non-boring weather in the comments if you like.


Climate is weather


To pre-empt anyone trotting out the obvious, that "weather is not climate" and that it is difficult, but not impossible, to attribute any individual weather event to global warming, let me point out:
Climate is weather

As the weather changes so does the climate.  And the climate is changing.  It's been changing almost everywhere:

Source: IPCC AR5 WG1 Fig ST.2 page TS-82

I'm not claiming all the above are "caused by" global warming.  But I will claim that all weather is affected by global warming.  It has to be.  I will also argue that many of the above-listed events, perhaps all of them, would not have been as extreme if not for global warming.  Some might not have occurred in a cooler world.  And it's still early days...

29 comments :

  1. Tornadoes are going to come in a the lowest on record, and the Atlantic is having its quietest season since the 1960s.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks for that tidbit. I take it you're from the USA.

      If you are curious about what is expected in regard to tornadoes, severe thunderstorms and tropical cyclones as the world heats up, I've compiled some of the science here, with links to the sources.

      Delete
    2. Seen it first hand, no hurricane strikes of severe nature since 2005 in the CONUS.

      Lowest tornadoes ever this year in the CONUS.

      Delete
    3. "Seen it first hand..."

      Well that's peer reviewed science at its best.

      Delete
  2. The Reno EF5 tornado, biggest AND strongest ever.

    But probably the biggest event goes unnoticed. Compared to it the recent NSW fires were two candles one lit.
    It is this: Jenisej Fires

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  3. Replies
    1. #8 in Holland and #5 wettest. Can consider it a quite normal month of October.

      Delete
  4. Replies
    1. Thanks, Bernard. That's worth an article when I get some time.

      Do you have to be old, conservative, upper-middle class, white, male and wear shiny pale blue ties to become a member of the scientific illiterati or can anyone join?

      It's okay - I know the answer. The scientific illiterati also accept lower class anglophilic title-worshipping men from the USA, albeit reluctantly and with a sniff and a sneer. (And with even more reluctance, a few women may be accepted.)

      Delete
    2. Politics is, indeed, the strongest predictor of the acceptance of the science.

      You've got to also remember that the WAMs - White, Affluent Males - really do hold a core religious vision in common; that the world is here for their benefit, and that it wouldn't have the temerity to thwart them.

      This is why their arguments all boil down to personal incredulity...

      Delete
    3. Hot on the heels of Howard, David Murray pushes the same barrow.

      I suspect that there may be something going on in the backrooms of the conservative "gentlemens' " clubs...


      Bernard J.

      Delete
    4. I have to agree with you Bernard. I wrote a comment to that effect (the conservative men's club) at Graham Readfearn's site. I might as well repost some of it here :)

      "David Murray represents a certain type of corporate ostrich. I’ve met them before. They are not bad at what they do business-wise, but are no different to ordinary pleb science deniers when it comes to ideology and current affairs outside their tiny world. And their world is very tiny – clubs, board rooms mixing with men who comb their hair and wear a suit and tie just like David’s (maybe even from the same tailor).

      Thing is, because of their position, when they make crass statements in their own environments, no-one stands up to them. People like David Murray (and John Howard and Tony Abbott) are surrounded by lackeys and corporate climbers who think it’s better to keep quiet and stay on their ‘right side’.

      Most people who hear the David Murray’s of the world make pronouncements like that will privately think they are jerks for saying it, but won’t challenge them. Thus the David Murray’s (and Tony Abbott's and John Howard's) continue to believe that everyone agrees with them.
      They’ve created their own little bubble through their rise in the business (or political) world.

      I’ve seen this in action in boardrooms. I’ve seen a room full of people who accept science either ignore the ignorant statements and, in some cases of toadyism even defend the view – when I know for a fact they disagree with it.

      I’ll bet after that interview David Murray pigeon-holed Emma Alberici and probably the entire ABC staff and maybe even the journalist profession as a whole as greenie, leftist, marxist, warm and fuzzy eco-nuts :) He might have even made that sort of comment to someone in his circle who would have solemnly nodded in pretend agreement while stifling a groan."

      Delete
    5. And it was actually Howard who was hot on Murray's heels. I saw Alberici interview Murray last week and was less than impressed at her desultory challenging of his crap. Nick at Watching the Deniers was a little more enthusiastic:

      http://watchingthedeniers.wordpress.com/2013/10/26/carbon-tax-is-socialism-tony-abbotts-great-big-conspiracy-theory/#comment-52439

      but I am less gracious and think that Alberici let a whole lot of risible nonsense pass with no calling.

      It's bad that the right in Australian politics is so hell-bent on living in cloud-cuckoo land, but it's just as tragic that the Australian media are providing them with a red carpet for the trip there.

      And further on the fascist Coalition that Australians put into government, the lower classes must be wondering if it was such a good idea given that Hockey has announced that he's taking their superannuation toppings-up from them, but giving drivers of expensive leased cars back their fringe benefits even though the cars are largely or entirely for private use. The farmers must be thrilled that their promised additional agricultural welfare has been slashed. I wonder if the opiated power consumers have figured out that even if the power companies pass on the difference of a removal of a carbon price, the loss of the carbon price reimbursment means that the low-to-middle income earners of Australia will actually be worse off - again it is only the wealthy who will benefit.

      Australia is a country of mugs, and the Coalition knows it. FFS, all Abbott has done since gaining office has been to swan around the world (something he criticised Labor leaders for doing when they were on their proportionately more infrequent trips overseas) and to assiduously avoid any microphone or TV camera - unless it's a photo-op. And now there are whispers that Murdoch's lining up to rejig the media ownership laws so that he can get Channel 10. Abbott must be swooning at the thought - another venue for friendly chats and self-aggrandisement.


      Bernard J.

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    6. I work in one of the most 'demographically challenged' regions of Australia.

      In my own experience a great many working / social-security class people really believed the economy was in tatters, and that the GBNT was costing them a fortune. You'd really have thought we were in Greece's predicament, not the envy of the OECD nations!

      There's the active propaganda channel that is News Ltd., and the passive 'balanced' cowardice of the ABC to thank for that. (Only the 'elite' - more below - read Fairfax!)

      As Vote Compass clearly revealed, the next big issue was the 'illegals', and throughout history reactionaries have used the scapegoating of defenceless minorities to 'divide and rule.' One might hope the loss of the super co-contribution would wake some people up - if affects me, I might add - but, frankly, in the absence of Murdoch's 'We Love Tony' minions harping on about it on a daily basis rage will remain unfocussed, and given the current sullen, anti-'elitist' mood (where billionaires are just average blokes, you know, while university professors are Machiavellian, conniving, would-be despots) we can probably only expect more PUP style dopiness to ensue...

      Delete
    7. Arthur Sinodinos is on the radio now saying that the Coalition supports 'aspirational' people, which is why they're removing the tax on superannuation earnings over 100k.

      I think that Sinodinos confuses 'aspirational' with 'extraordinarily wealthy'.

      Have a look at the taxes that are being removed, and those that are being left in place:

      http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/treasurer-joe-hockeys-tax-shift-has-174000-winners/story-fni0fiyv-1226754009932

      http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/11/super-changes-to-cost-low-income-earners-27k/

      https://www.mywealth.commbank.com.au/superannuation/governmemt-dumps-wealth-tax-hottopic201311

      I'll link to the World Today piece when it's up.


      Bernard J.

      Delete
    8. So only wealthy people have aspirations and people who are less well off don't?

      Let them eat cake!

      Delete
    9. And speaking of deniers of the scientific consensus, Codling's at it again. Not only that, she's chasing a mirage:

      http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2013/11/04/november-2013-open-thread/comment-page-1/#comment-170607

      Bernard J.

      Delete
  5. Austin, Texas, declares "state of disaster". http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/11/05/2890011/austin-flooding-disaster

    Always good to get "Texas" and "State of Disaster" in the same sentence.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Not sure where to post this, but I just noticed a glitch on Twitter:

    Must be a glitch, right? RT @wattsupwiththat Looking like @MichaelEMann will lose in Virginia
    archive.is/7iHWa

    THIS is why I'm so glad you're archiving WUWT articles. Posterity will want to know how we could possibly let this go on for so long, and some people are frantically trying to revise history.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ha ha. There is way too much wrong with that tweet, starting with the fact that he isn't a candidate. He sure holds Anthony in thrall though :)

      Delete
    2. Ho ho - Mann's response is excellent - and Kooky-Nelly is toast! Quite made my afternoon...

      Delete
    3. I really like the tweet over at Mann's feed that points out that a lot of these Virginia polling stations were badly-sited; near car parks and air-conditioner exhaust fans...

      Delete
  7. Agreed. Also, try copying the archived URL to your address bar and see his tweet as it appears now.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Don't tell me Anthony deleted his own tweet! He couldn't have. He regards deleting tweets as a mortal sin.

      I bet he won't sleep for weeks agonising over that dastardly deed.

      (Actually, I'm surprised he's managed to figure out that you can delete your own tweet by, you know, clicking the word "delete". He doesn't understand how Twitter works.)

      Delete
    2. Delete? Anthony Watts? Perish the thought! I just assumed it was a glitch, possibly due to cosmic rays hitting Twitter's server.

      Delete
    3. And this is why I archive...

      It must really irk him that the interweb won't forget ;-)


      Bernard J.

      Delete
    4. pfft. as any fule kno, only climate scientists delete things. this is just reality being alarmist again.

      anti-poe: ;-)

      Delete
  8. Added the strongest cyclone ever to make a landfall - Hainan.
    Already looking forward to the next hyperextreme. Should be something inside of a month, what with the CAGW-clock ticking in overdrive acceleration mode.
    Might be Aussie again.

    ReplyDelete

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